Toronto Raptors/Milwaukee Bucks Playoff Preview
16 Wins A Ring Writers offer 3 different perspectives on each first round series
The Numbers:
Regular season: Raptors won 3–1
Raptors 106.9 points per game - 10th in NBA versus 102.6 points per game allowed (8th in NBA)
Bucks 103.6 points per game (20th in NBA)/103.8 points per game allowed (9th in NBA)
Raptors record vs Eastern Conference playoff teams: 13–11
Bucks record vs Eastern Conference playoff teams: 11–16
Raptors Preview by Tamberlyn Richardson
Toronto Raptors’ Series X Factor:
P.J. Tucker may be the last Toronto Raptors roster addition made this season, but he’s become arguably the most valuable. It’s no coincidence the Raptors defensive improvements coincided with Tucker and Ibaka’s arrival.
The numbers showcase the variance as pre All-Star break Toronto ranked 16th defensively (106.0) as opposed to their post All-Star 4th rank (102.3).Tucker specifically has an on court defensive rating of 98.9 versus his 105.8 off court rating. That variance of 6.9 points is invaluable which is why Dwane Casey elects to play him in clutch situations and to close games.
Offensively Tucker may not light up the stat sheet, but his 40% efficiency (since joining the Raptors) from the perimeter helps to spread the court and contribute to the best fourth quarter offense. He’s only had a few games to mesh with Kyle Lowry, so watch for Tucker to become a favorite target for the bulldog as the playoffs progress.
His leadership on and off the court has added another dimension to the already solid chemistry of the Toronto Raptors. For the 31 year old, gritty small forward who began his career in Toronto this represents his first trip to the postseason. Expect him to make the most of it.
Toronto Raptors’ Series MVP:
As great as DeMar DeRozan has been (and he’s been great), the player who is the unequivocal Raptors leader is Kyle Lowry.
Pundits rightfully focused on the brilliance of Celtics Isaiah Thomas and his fourth quarter assaults this season. Lost in IT’s diminutive shadow was Lowry who is the bulldog who makes the Raptors click on both sides of the court. When Lowry went out for 21 games due to injury there were audible gasps echoing through the 6ix.
As it turns out his wrist injury may have been a blessing in disguise since he enters the postseason rested and uninjured for the first time in four years. Moreover, it forced the remainder of the team to learn how to win without him. The resulting effect was experience for youngsters Delon Wright and Lowry clone Fred VanVleet. And perhaps most importantly it allowed backup Cory Joseph to rediscover his confidence.
With Lowry back it presents massive problems for the Bucks who love to trap guards and use their length to blitz the pick and roll. In the last meeting between the teams they were able to utilize this strategy with great effect on DeRozan limiting him to 11 points.
But,with Lowry back it’s not just a matter of picking your poison because Lowry’s basketball I.Q makes him lethal at reading the play and reacting quickly. Whether he elects to speed past for a lay-in, throw it out to the corner or step back for his patented 3-pointer he’ll be a nightmare for the Bucks to contain.
Toronto Raptors Key Advantage Over Milwaukee Bucks:
Following the trades to acquire Ibaka and Tucker the Raptors boast arguably the deepest and most versatile roster in the NBA. Playoffs are about matchups and being able to offset and adjust on the fly. Only three teams finished the season ranked in the top 10 in offense and defense. The Toronto Raptors were the only Eastern Conference team on that list (Warriors and Spurs were the other two).
Furthermore, the Raptors won’t give up, no matter what the score is. To that end, Toronto led the league in double digit comebacks with 21. In addition, they close like a freight train boasting the best fourth quarter offense. Plus, they bring out the closing unit to up their defensive efforts to lock teams down.
Casey utilizes a combination of Lowry DeRozan, Joseph, Tucker, Carroll and Ibaka who represent the 4th best fourth quarter defense. Perhaps scarier for the Bucks is Toronto can insert another 3 to 4 players off his bench and not see a dip on either side of the court.
Toronto Raptors Key Disadvantage Over Milwaukee Bucks:
As per above, the Raptors propensity to allow teams to build leads isn’t exactly the ideal scenario in the playoffs. But,who are we kidding — finding the key to fit the lock on how to guard Giannis Antetokounmpo offers Dwane Casey and his staff their greatest issues.
The book on the Greek Freak is to force him into being a jump shooter. Still, find me a team who was able to stop Antetokounmpo from getting into the paint at will and I’ll gladly pass it along. Fortunately, the Raptors are good at protecting the ball (better now that Lowry is back),which is vital given Antetokounmpo is masterful at using his quickness and length to snare steals and lead an insanely quick fast break.
Young Dinos in Waiting:
Being the youngest non-transplanted NBA franchise has presented its fair share of growing pains for the Toronto Raptors. Navigating unheralded waters trying to build a legacy and identity took time. Last year the team seemingly broke through, experiencing what might best be deemed the magical season. One after another new benchmarks were claimed as the Raptors registered their first 50-win season (56), first 7-game series win (did it twice) and their inaugural trip to the Eastern Conference Finals.
This season the Raptors survived key injuries to core players and finished the season with an identical record to the Cavaliers. Yet, there are still firsts to be tackled. For starters, winning Game 1 at home.
While the 2016–17 season has been dominated by offense and record breaking, it’s easy to forget the Toronto Raptors created two of the early narratives. DeMar DeRozan’s consecutive 30-point scoring streak and the Association’s best offense through mid January.
Although the Raptors won the season series 3–1 versus the Bucks, they’ve yet to face a fully healthy Raptors squad with all it’s new parts.
Series Prediction: Raptors Apply Lessons Learned in 2016
Knowing what awaits them in the second round makes the need to finish this series expediently all the more crucial. Jurassic Park and the Air Canada Centre “We The North’ supporters will no doubt do their part.
The 6ix has long awaited this era of Raptors playoff wins and hope to ride the red wave into June. Masai Ujiri and Jeff Weltman have crafted the best Toronto Raptors roster in history. Now,it’s up the players to make it happen. It starts in the opening round as the Raptors carry the momentum of a 18–7 finish (best in East, 2nd in NBA) to take the series 4–1.
Bucks Preview by Brian Sampson
Milwaukee Bucks’ Series X Factor:
The easy answer would be Giannis Antetokounmpo but I’m not here for the easy way out.
I’m going with Khris Middleton. The Milwaukee Bucks are going to have to count on Middleton to get back into last year’s form if they want any shot to win this series. He has been in an extended slump the last few weeks and needs to snap out of it.
If Khris Middleton can knock down outside shots like he is known to, he will be a huge factor in keeping the driving lanes open for Antetokounmpo.
Giannis often struggles when defenses collapse so the Bucks need their best shooter in Middleton to step up when it counts.
For all of last season, Khris Middleton was the Bucks’ best player. Since returning from injury in February, he has had his moments but they have been few and far between. Middleton must play like he is capable of for the Bucks to keep this series competitive.
Milwaukee Bucks’ Series MVP:
Two words. Greek Freak. Giannis Antetokounmpo will have his fingerprints all over this series. He can literally do everything for the Milwaukee Bucks as he demonstrated in the regular season. He led the Bucks in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals.
While the Toronto Raptors may present challenges on the offensive side of the court for Antetokounmpo I believe he will get enough opportunities to put the ball in the hoop.
Toronto is mainly a jump shooting team so look for the Bucks to get the ball in Antetokounmpo’s hands on some of those missed shots. The Bucks will need to score in transition as that is where they thrive.
Even if Antetokounmpo struggles to score the ball he will have an impact defensively. The Raptors should struggle with his length and athleticism, forcing them to pull-up for shots farther from the rim than they would like.
Either way, Antetokounmpo will make himself known in this series.
Milwaukee Bucks Key Advantage Over Toronto Raptors:
I know that a lot of Milwaukee Bucks fans are going to disagree with me on this but I feel as if the Raptors could be a good matchup for the Bucks.
The best way to beat the Bucks defense is through ball movement and quick decisions. The Bucks pressure defense is notorious for giving up wide open shots after multiple perimeter swings.
That isn’t the Raptors game however, as they rank dead last in the NBA in assists per game. A lot of that is due to their style of play as they run a lot of isolation plays, approximately 8.6 percent of the time.
With Khris Middleton now back in the lineup the Bucks have multiple defenders on the wing who can hold their own in isolation situations. That is very important because, aside from Antetokounmpo, the Bucks don’t have any help coming from the paint area. I fully expect Greg Monroe to get the majority of minutes at center and he is the furthest thing from a shot-blocking center.
Milwaukee Bucks Key Disadvantage Over Toronto Raptors:
The Toronto Raptors are constructed to win now with their core players all in their prime. They are also clearly a more talented team than the Milwaukee Bucks. They have multiple guys who can score in Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas, and Cory Joseph .
The Bucks’ biggest challenge will be containing the plethora of scoring options the Raptors have without keying on one guy. That will be extremely difficult to do because DeRozan is having the best season of his career and can basically get to wherever he wants on the floor.
The Raptors do a good job of having at least four shooters on the floor at all times. This keeps those driving lanes open for DeRozan and Lowry. The Bucks can’t take away all the Raptors weapons so they will have to hone in on one specifically.
Milwaukee Bucks put spin on regular season:
The Bucks did a great job against the Raptors in their last matchup of the season. That also happened to be the Bucks only victory against the Raptors as well.
In that game the Bucks were able to rely on their length and perimeter defense to disrupt the Raptors. Even though Milwaukee didn’t force many turnovers they made the Raptors earn everything. They didn’t give up any easy buckets and used their size advantage at almost every position.
The Bucks were able to control the paint and the glass which are huge for Milwaukee. They aren’t necessarily a prolific outside shooting team so Milwaukee needs to take advantage of easy buckets whenever possible. That is especially true in the playoffs when the game slows down and the intensity level picks up.
Milwaukee must continue to do the small things such as rebound and protect the ball in order to upset the Raptors.
Series Prediction:
Bucks in six! Milwaukee is a team that is hungry to prove themselves. They have been doubted at every step of the way and that continues into the playoffs. The key Bucks players have minimal playoff experience,but look for Jason Terry to help keep them calm.
In the end, Milwaukee’s defense will be the real answer. Their size and length advantage is just too much for the Raptors to overcome. The Bucks have good perimeter defenders in Malcolm Brogdon, Tony Snell, and Middleton that will be able to keep the Raptors guards in front of them.
On offense, Milwaukee will space the floor and knock down enough outside shots to win games. Giannis Antetokounmpo will make a huge splash on the big stage as he looks to take his game to the next level.
Independent Preview by Christopher Kline
While a great deal of people seem to be pegging the Bucks as the most likely team to pull off an upset here, my outlook is a bit more bleak — there’s a good chance that this is the most lopsided series in the East.
Series X Factor:
The Bucks come into this matchup outmatched in their best facets, meaning — first and foremost — that their success in this series will be almost entirely dependent on Giannis Antetokounmpo’s performance. As an almost inarguable top 10 player at this point, the Greek Freak could shove his name further into the national narrative in a big way here, with his nearly-unguardable versatility giving the Bucks their only real threat that Toronto can’t match at a higher level.
His length allows him to rotate around the court without issue on both ends, making him somebody a Toronto team — even with their latest defensive additions — will struggle to contain in a vacuum.
Series MVP:
On the other hand, Kyle Lowry’s recent return is obviously going to provide the biggest boost to this Raptors squad offensively, and he’s likely what will push Toronto over the top on that end of the floor.
Milwaukee can throw a few different looks at him defensively, but it’s tough to imagine this Bucks squad reigning in an offensive talent of Lowry’s caliber over the course of an entire series.
He’s what will make Toronto’s offense tick, and given the new variety a weapon like Serge Ibaka throws into the mix, they’ll be able to gash the Bucks’ defensive arsenal in too many ways. Kyle’s back, and he’ll be series MVP.
Key Factor in series:
Milwaukee struggles to produce in the halfcourt setup, whereas energy and defensive hustle are going to be their most viable path towards victory. The Raptors, however, can play that same way at an even higher level — while boasting far more offensive firepower on the other end.
P.J. Tucker brings a toughness off the bench that this team hasn’t had in years past, while DeMarre Carroll, when healthy for a full series, is no slouch either in that respect. The Bucks have some solid defensive pieces, but not enough to keep Lowry and DeMar DeRozan in check four times in seven games.
Milwaukee’s path to success involves outrunning, and by the virtues of upping the pace, outgunning this Raptors team in transition. Giannis has to get out in the open court and wreak absolute havoc, as this Toronto team is simply too well-rounded to cave in if their biggest challenge is containing an inconsistent and spacing-devoid halfcourt offense from Milwaukee.
Series Prediction:
In short, the Raptors have the edge here — and my prediction follows suit. Toronto in 4.
