Trading Down Could be a Legacy-Defining Move for Danny Ainge
With Celtics fans feeling slightly anxious about giving up the top draft pick, Ainge obviously has specific plans in mind.
Danny Ainge knows more than you. He knows more than me, too. He knows more about Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson and the Celtics’ long term plan than anyone.
Over the years, Ainge has earned Boston’s trust. He brought Banner 17 to the Garden with the Kevin Garnett/Ray Allen moves in 2007, and when he sensed the Big Three era was over, he swindled the Nets out of their future before his stars lost their value.
But the “In Danny We Trust” crowd is sweating right now. Trading the first overall pick in the draft, top prospect Markelle Fultz, is risky to say the least. Just a week ago, Celtics fans heralded Fultz as the next Tracy McGrady, a guard with essentially no flaws — a clear-cut superstar. Photoshopped pictures of Fultz in green circulated Twitter as he only planned to work out for the Celtics. The aura of mutual romance was real…until it wasn’t.
It is clear now that Ainge wasn’t sold on Fultz.
The details of the trade, first reported by TNT’s David Aldridge, are:
CELTICS RECEIVE:
2017 #3 overall pick
2018 LA Lakers pick IF it lands between #2 and #5. If that pick falls outside that range, they receive the Sacramento Kings’ 2019 first round pick, seemingly unprotected.
76ERS RECEIVE:
Markelle Fultz
At first glance, that doesn’t seem like enough for the top prospect, which prompts the inference that Ainge is not done dealing.
Popular theories as to Ainge’s motivation to trade down include:
- (As aforementioned) Ainge doesn’t believe Fultz will be a superstar
- Ainge simply thinks Josh Jackson, or another prospect, is the best player in the draft
- As Nate Duncan speculated, the Celtics are working on another trade, and it is easier to make deals when assets are broken up.
- According to Adam Himmelsbach of the Boston Globe, the Celtics’ “overflowing backcourt” factored into passing on Fultz. They have Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Terry Rozier on the books.
The reason Ainge made the Brooklyn trade is to be in this position, with the first pick in the draft. Now that he’s in the driver’s seat, he is exercising all possible options. He could be overthinking it, but he could be a genius.
Whether or not Ainge flips these new assets for a proven star (Jimmy Butler) or a superstar (Anthony Davis?) this move could redefine Ainge’s legacy as an executive. He knows the stakes. He’ll always have 2008, but if Fultz becomes a transcendent talent, he’ll regret this deal for years to come and Boston will certainly resent him.
One concerning element of the trade is Philadelphia fans’ reaction. They are 100% on board with the move and feel like #TheProcess is finally coming to fruition.
They will run out a core of Fultz, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and Dario Saric in 2017. That is a scary group. On paper.
Before everyone appoints Philly the “most-feared team in the Atlantic Division,” as the Boston Globe’s Gary Washburn did, note that Simmons has not played an NBA minute and Embiid has played 31 games since he was drafted in 2014.
The sentiment that Philadelphia is creating a contender in the division is overblown. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Still, that core is young and has serious potential. As many fans pointed out, Sam Hinkie died for this. Truthfully, he deserves much credit for the Sixers’ rebuild, and eventually that credit will turn into another job.
Assuming the Celtics hold on to the #3 pick, Josh Jackson seems like the natural pick. His athleticism and versatility give him one of the highest ceilings in the draft. He could be perfect for the modern NBA: a wing who can defend all positions, make plays on offense, and knock down threes. Or, he could be Stanley Johnson, whose skillset has plateaued and has failed to make an impact in the NBA.
For weeks, Boston fans watched Markelle Fultz highlights on repeat. Now, it’s Jackson’s turn.
The beauty of the draft is the unknown. Josh Jackson had a great freshman season at Kansas, but he’s only 20 years old and he’s very raw.
His fit with the Celtics is also fascinating. Especially considering Jaylen Brown’s rapid growth, Jackson could be redundant. Surely you can never have enough athletic two-way players, but both youngsters play the same position and with both of them on the floor at the same time, the Celtics could possibly struggle offensively.
In addition to his questionable NBA projection, it is hard to ignore his off-court issues. While Lonzo Ball has garnered most of the attention for non-basketball matters because of his father, Jackson’s problems are more concerning.
There was the confrontation with a Kansas women’s basketball player, which forced him to attend anger management classes, write a letter of apology, and refrain from using alcohol or recreational drugs for a year.
In addition, he and four other KU players witnessed an alleged sexual assault, according to a police report.
His maturity is a question mark, but apparently one the Celtics are willing to look past.
According to The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor, a very plugged-in reporter, particularly with the Celtics, Boston is eyeing Duke forward Jayson Tatum at #3.
Tatum is offensively gifted and fits into Boston’s system much better than Jackson. He could potentially start as a small-ball power forward next to Al Horford and Jae Crowder in the frontcourt. Although Tatum has work to do defensively, Brad Stevens has proven he can either cover up or improve any player’s deficiencies.
Although his ceiling is lower than Jackson’s, Tatum has been compared to Carmelo Anthony and Danny Granger. He is the epitome of where the NBA is headed: smaller and rangier.
Boston is also rumored to be interested in Jonathan Isaac, a 6'10 project with extremely high upside.
The question remains: are the Celtics building for 2018 or 2021? If they simply hold on to the picks, they are clearly hoping to rebuild the team with a young nucleus while remaining good-but-not-quite-great with Isaiah Thomas and Al Horford.
If they flip the picks for a superstar, they could be pivoting into more of a “win-now” approach. A core of Isaiah Thomas, Superstar A, Gordon Hayward, and Al Horford is not too shabby, but is it enough to dethrone the Cavaliers or Warriors? What if they somehow wooed the Pelicans to deal Anthony Davis?
There’s always a “next draft.” Eventually, the Celtics are going to have to turn their picks into a real player via trade. There’s just not enough roster spots or cap room for all the picks, even if Ante Zizic and Guerschon Yabusele never suit up, which is unlikely.
The draft is Thursday. Ainge will be on the phone with GMs around the league from now until then. He has options. Regardless of what he chooses to do, the unfortunate truth is that he might’ve already passed on the best one.
