Utah Jazz At A Crossroads
On the precipice of becoming consistent contenders, the Jazz face summertime roster decisions where choices made could determine the franchise’s fate for the next decade.
Throughout the 1980s in to the early 2000s, the Utah Jazz were one of the NBA’s most consistent teams. Mostly behind the brilliance of Karl Malone, John Stockton and Jerry Sloan, Utah made the playoffs for 20 consecutive seasons from 1984 to 2003. The run reached its apex in the 1997 and 1998 seasons with back to back trips to the NBA Finals, where the Jazz fell to Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls, as Chicago closed out their second three-peat.
Following the retirement of Stockton and Malone leaving as a free agent in the summer of 2003, the Jazz slid back and missed the playoffs for three consecutive seasons. However, Jerry Sloan righted the ship behind a team full of draft picks, castoffs and fringe veterans to make another four consecutive playoff appearances from 2007 to 2010. Then midway through the 2011 season, Sloan retired and things have never been quite the same. Sure, Utah made the playoffs in the lockout shortened 2012 season, but that has been followed by four straight years out of the postseason. That is the longest run of futility the franchise has had in Utah since the first four years after it moved from New Orleans to Salt Lake City.
This year things seem poised to turn around in a big way. After missing the playoffs by one game last year, Utah sits in fourth place in the Western conference as of this writing and should wrap up a playoff berth fairly soon barring an unmitigated disaster. This is great for a team that has built the “right” way by acquiring players through the Draft and free agency and allowed them to mesh and grow together. However, in a city nicknamed “The Crossroads of the West” the Jazz face a crossroad unlike any they have seen since Stockton and Malone moved along over a decade ago.
The Jazz are built around the quartet of Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood, who have been together for three seasons now. George Hill was brought in via trade this summer to fill a point guard spot that has been a bugaboo since the team shipped Deron Williams off to the Nets. Around those five, the Jazz have assembled quality role players in Joe Johnson, Boris Diaw, Alec Burks, Joe Ingles and youngsters Dante Exum and Trey Lyles. The most interesting part? Only Johnson was acquired via free agency. The remainder were brought in through the draft, trades or waiver claims. For those who like homegrown teams, the Jazz are a shining example to point to.
On the flip side, building organically can take time. Of the current players on the Jazz roster, only Hayward, Favors and Burks have seen a playoff game in Utah and that was a sweep at the hands of the Spurs in 2012 when Hayward and Favors were in their second year and Burks was a rookie. Since then, the season has shut down in mid-April every year and the Jazz have looked longingly at playing games during a time of year when they were once a fixture.
This year, things have really come together. After years of trying, Utah finally plugged the point guard hole with Hill. Despite some injuries, he’s played the best basketball of his career. He’s averaging career-bests in scoring at 17.6 PPG and shooting at 47.9% overall and 40.9% from behind the arc. His assist and turnover percentage rank near his career highs as well. And he’s fit right in with Utah’s defense-first culture.
With Hill handling the point guard spot, Hayward has blossomed into a true superstar. He made his first All-Star game and is tallying career-highs in scoring and rebounding, while playing the best defense of his career. His playmaking is down a bit, but that is more an example of Hill helping than it is of any slippage in Hayward’s game. Always a good shooter, he’s lifted his game even higher this year with 46.6% shooting overall and 38% from distance on a career-high 5.2 three-point attempts per game.
Gobert has stepped up his game as well, with the best numbers of his career nearly across the board. He continues to be the most dominating defensive center in the game and has developed into a competent offensive weapon as well. He’s also played every game this season after missing 21 games last year with an assortment of injuries. The Jazz think so highly of Gobert they already locked him up to a near max extension which kicks in starting next season.
Favors and Hood are slightly different stories. Both have missed about a third of the season so far with various maladies, but have been productive when they have played. Hood has become the additional wing scorer the Jazz needed, as he’s averaging 13.7 PPG on over 37% shooting from three. With everyone else’s scoring up, Favors is under 10 PPG for the first time since 2013. His minutes are also down, as Utah is using their depth to conserve Favors for what they hope is an extended playoff run.
And the team is getting terrific contributions from the bench group of Johnson, Diaw, Ingles, Burks, Exum and Lyles, including spot starts when needed. Add it all up and things look great for the Jazz for the first time in a while. The playoffs are around the corner for the first time in a while and the team is stocked with quality players. But can it last?
As long as it can take a team to come together the “right” way, it can fall apart just as quickly. Hayward and Favors are on their second contracts with the team. Favors signed an extension of his Rookie Scale deal in 2013 that runs through the 2018 season. Hayward signed an Offer Sheet with Charlotte in 2014 as a restricted free agent and Utah matched it. That deal has a Player Option for 2017–18 that Hayward is almost assuredly going to decline it and become a free agent once again.
Hill is also a free agent this summer and hasn’t had a year in his career where he’s made more than $8 million dollars. By NBA standards for a player of his caliber that amounts to being chronically underpaid. Hill will be looking to get paid for the first time as he enters his 10th season at age 31. Ingles is a restricted free agent this summer at age 29, due to a quirk of him coming to the NBA later in his career than your average rookie.
Hood is eligible for a Rookie Scale extension for the first time this summer, as is Exum. Burks has two more years left, Johnson has another season and Diaw can come back for one more year if the team chooses to keep his non-guaranteed deal for 2017–18.
Add it all up and the Jazz are facing some major roster decisions this summer and next. How they handle it will be fascinating for a franchise that is just getting back to where they expect to be in the standings.
Let’s take it year by year, because that helps to give crucial context that could be missed if you take it simply on a player by player basis. This summer the Jazz are likely to be looking at eight roster decisions ranging from critical to barely noticeable:
1. Hayward free agency
2. Hill free agency
3. Ingles restricted free agency
4. Diaw contract guarantee
5. Raul Neto contract guarantee
6. Joel Bolomboy contract guarantee
7. Shelvin Mack free agency
8. Jeff Withey free agency
Working backwards, the last couple are pretty easy. With two first round picks in the upcoming Draft, the Jazz can easily draft replacements for Mack and Withey and bring in younger players who have more upside.
Bolomboy is likely to be back as the team gave him over $450 thousand guaranteed for 2017–18. Neto has no guaranteed money, but is a solid backup or third point guard, so he’s probably coming back too.
That leaves four potentially tricky situations. Diaw’s contract becomes fully guaranteed on 7/15/17 and the Jazz are probably keeping him. Veteran presence at the 4 and 5 and his offensive ability is well worth it at $7.5 million. Ingles is tougher, but as a restricted free agent, he probably won’t garner many big offers. Utah loves him and what he brings, so they’ll probably try to bring him back as well.
Now we are down to the two big decisions: Hill and Hayward. These are arguably the two biggest free agent decisions in the NBA this summer. Other players of similar caliber are expected to stay where they are. Hayward and Hill can both re-up in Utah, and keep the Jazz on a path towards being contenders or they move on and improve the teams they join, while sinking the Jazz.
Let’s play out scenario one where Utah keeps the band together. They cut ties with Mack and Withey and replace them with rookies. They keep Diaw, Neto and Bolomboy and guarantee their contracts for the 2017–18 season. They sign Ingles to a contract that starts around $8 million annually, which seems fair for a player of his manner.
Hayward is getting a max contract and let’s assume he doesn’t make an All-NBA team this year and qualify for the bigger max under the new Designated Player Veteran Extension rules. That gives him a starting salary of $30.6 million in year one. He’ll sign the full five year deal and also pick up the 8% raise on top of that $30.6 million in subsequent years.
That leaves Hill. I’ll assume he would be willing to take a front-loaded contract that declines in value each year, as several players his age have done recently. I’m plugging him in at a starting salary of $17.4 million for 2017–18 that declines to $13.2 million over the following three years.
Where does that leave Utah for 2017–18? With the exact same roster as the one they have now, minus two new draftees in place of Mack and Withey, they would have a total salary commitment of over $133 million. That would put the Jazz in Luxury Tax territory for the first time since the 2010 and 2011 seasons.
2018–19 gets even more expensive. Continuing with the idea that Hayward and Hill stuck around in 2017, the Jazz then need to re-sign Hood and Favors. Favors remarkably will only be 27 at the start of the 2018–19 season. He should have plenty of good years left, so let’s give him $20 million annually, as that will be the going rate at that point for a big man of his ilk.
For Hood, he will be a good, but not great player. That doesn’t get you the max, but it gets you paid nonetheless. Let’s give him a contract starting at $18 million a year. More than fair for a player who is likely the second or third option on a good team.
The last part to deal with is Dante Exum. In this scenario, Exum didn’t get an extension and hits restricted free agency. Given that he’d still be behind Hill, let’s say the Jazz let him walk. Other players who leave are Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw, who are both likely to retire or sit at the end of the bench for a contender by this point. That leaves a roster of:
Hill/Neto or 2017 draftee
Hood/Burks
Hayward/Ingles
Favors/Lyles
Gobert/2017 draftee
Looks pretty similar to right now, no? Only this group has a lot more dollar signs around them with a committed salary amount of almost $141 million. And again, a deep Luxury Tax team.
Now, let’s move on to scenario two. They lose Hayward, Hill or both this summer. At that point, the Jazz are building around Gobert, Hood and hoping Exum can take the leap. They could move on from Diaw and maybe even Ingles. That would free up some cap space, but no one Utah could bring in would even hope to replace Hayward or Hill’s contributions. So, while the team isn’t nearly as expensive, they won’t be nearly as good either.
Where does this leave Utah? In perhaps the trickiest spot in the entire NBA. They have patiently built and done it the “right” way. But starting this summer the Jazz, who have struggled to hit the salary floor in recent years, could jump all the way to being a Luxury Tax team in one summer. Or Hayward, Hill, or both, move on and subsequently the regression in talent becomes palpable.
There is something to be said for building the way Utah has, but it took a long time to get here. By the time the decisions get real, the team has one playoff appearance to show for this current core. Is that enough to convince the owners of a team in one of the NBA’s smallest markets to pay big to keep it together? While everything floats in the Great Salt Lake, that might not.
More importantly, is that team good enough to ever make an NBA Finals run? Hayward and Gobert might improve slightly. Hood could make another leap. But Hill and Favors probably are what they are and could already be on the way down. The other veterans aren’t likely to improve much, if at all. Exum and Lyles would have to be the ones to make major steps forward for the Jazz to become true contenders.
At the end of the day, Utah might be back in the playoffs again and might even have home court advantage, but this run could be short lived. With the options being to either lose players or be wildly expensive, there is almost no middle ground. And that is a tough situation to be in after a long and patient rebuild to get to this crossroads.
