Victor Oladipo’s Identity Crisis
Victor Oladipo never fit in Orlando. A draft day trade landed him in Oklahoma City, and a year later doubts remain about his destiny.
Number two draft picks are projected as Franchise stars. No matter the player’s skills, or style, a player that high in the lottery is a player that a team can bet on moving forward. Perhaps not always in the eyes of the men that drafted them, but almost certainly in those of the fans’ supporting them.
The NBA holds no guarantees however, nor life. Success is not guaranteed. Ask Hasheem Thabeet, Derrick Williams, Michael Beasley, Darko Milicic and Stromile Swift. Not every second selection can be Kevin Durant, or even LaMarcus Aldridge.
Expectations are a dangerous thing, especially for a player chosen by a struggling organization in need of a savior. Orlando certainly were that in 2013 when they picked Victor Oladipo out of Indiana University.
The swingman came into Florida amidst much praise, as he had helped turned the program at Indiana around and had relished the bright lights of the big stage in College, where his best games came when it mattered most. He had the 6'9" wingspan five inches greater than his height, helping him project as a good NBA defender with the ability to score.
His versatility in defending positions one through three held him in good stead for the modern NBA, and he was lethal in transition. With his improved shooting, he seemed set for stardom. Much like his franchise however, Oladipo sputtered. The guard never found his groove, and while his basic numbers were reasonable enough they weren’t translating into anything of true value and meaning.
On Draft Day in 2016, Oladipo was shipped to Oklahoma City alongside 11th pick Domantas Sabonis and Ersan Ilyasova, as Serge Ibaka took their place in Disneyworld. With Ibaka nearing free agency in the summer of 2017, Oladipo was supposed to be another crucial piece of the puzzle as the Thunder attempted to convince Kevin Durant to re-up and once again try to take down the Warriors.
It didn’t play out that way however of course, and Oladipo’s course diverted in line with the Thunder.
All of a sudden with Dion Waiters also out the door, Oklahoma City were going to need Oladipo’s offense far above all else. He’d become a second option on a team devoid of shooting and natural scoring; all of a sudden that pressure to perform had returned the same way it had as a number two pick.
Make no mistake the pressure would have been there if Durant had stayed — but without him there wasn’t a shield, protection against a heavy burden. Oladipo couldn’t have quiet nights, if he didn’t step up it was the Westbrook show and Westbrook show alone.
Unfortunately, it was a mixed 2016–17 which often meant Westbrook was forced to go it alone. It will win him Most Valuable Player in June but the Thunder exited in the first round. This was down mostly to the fact his auxiliary pieces in Oladipo, Steven Adams, and others weren’t able to carry the load he couldn’t bear alone. He did of course, but Westbrook basketball is fast and furious, but not necessarily a winning method when it matters.
Oladipo has polarized and he has confused, and the extension he signed in late October of last year has meant the “new TV money” contract he received has left his deal often lambasted. Regardless of when and whether fans adjust to the crazy new sums handed out to players, four years and $84 million is a lot of money to commit to a player.
The wing will now earn $21 million per season through 2020-21, in an interestingly built deal where the amount stays the same. It will age better, but the salary cap is projected at around $101 million. No matter where it lands, that’s a lot of your budget allocated to one guy. This is where expectation is born.
Now the issue for Oladipo that has steadily been revealed throughout his NBA tenure is this — who is Victor Oladipo, the NBA player? Is he a secondary scorer, with the ability to generate offense for himself and others? Is he a good to great defender who plays well at both ends? It’s not entirely clear, and for a player relied on as much as he is now that’s not a great place to be in, especially when your team is in a win now mode.
And make no mistake, the Thunder need to win now. Russell Westbrook’s long-term future is not guaranteed until that Designated Player Extension is signed. With the Oklahoma City number zero approaching his 29th birthday, athleticism or not, time is not on his side. Sam Presti needs to position the team to keep moving towards the upper echelon of the Western Conference. They won’t do that without improvements.
At his exit interview on the first Monday of May, Presti did reference internal improvement as a key factor in the team and rightfully so. The Thunder possess the youngest regular rotation in the NBA and the third youngest roster overall. Oladipo certainly fits that conversation, and his game possesses huge room for improvement in many areas.
His first year in Oklahoma saw a change in game style, with a more off-ball role taking centre-stage for the swingman. Oladipo spent his summer in Los Angeles working out with his new backcourt partner, with an interesting season awaiting him.
The guard’s usage rate dropped, as did his turnover rate to a career best, but his assist percentage also fell to a career low. Part of the battle in his new town was to figure out who is he going to be moving forward. He’d tried various roles in Orlando and none had taken, and it was down to Billy Donovan to find the fit that was going to promote the best of his talents.
In most offensive areas, Oladipo has shown steady improvements across the board. His basic shooting numbers have improved, and while he is not yet efficient as some would like, he’s starting to round out his game better despite some obvious flaws.
He’s improved as a spot up shooter, particularly in the corners. The right corner has been superb to Oladipo his entire career, but he hit a career best 46.4 percent from there in 2016–17. In the process he has become a better than league average perimeter gunner, even though he still struggles above the break as he has most of his career. The right corner however, is where he gets comfortable.
Russell Westbrook would often utilize these skills when driving to the basket or in transition, and Oladipo would know right where to be.
The main concern for Oladipo going forward however is his ability to get to the rim, get physical and draw contact and as a result get to the free throw line. 2016–17 saw him drop to a career worst free throw rate of just 16.5 percent.
One of the issues for him is that he simply shies away from contact. He rarely drives to the basket with authority, and although he has a reputation of being “feathery smooth”, you can’t always be that when finishing around the basket.
Whether it’s a lack of core strength, urgency or other, Oladipo more often than not does not show the required skills to get it done in traffic.
The urgency can sometimes e a real problem. If Oladipo puts on the jets here, he can likely finish comfortably. It was his first postseason and perhaps there was nerves, but his performances under the spotlight drew concern.
I don’t even know how to describe this next clip. Oladipo seems to have driven to the basket with no plan. His decision process when making plays does need to improve, and Presti indicated last week that he would be more on-ball as secondary ball handler next season.
Clint Capela made Oladipo into mincemeat for the majority of the Rockets-Thunder First Round series, and covered him seemingly with far too much ease.
Unfortunately, this next clip sums up his postseason. Oladipo has to work on his strength this summer, and has to develop the aggression to finish with authority. There’s no excuse for simple misses like this.
All things considered though, these are simply areas for improvement. Oladipo does have strengths to rely on, such as his perimeter shooting from the corners. One of his go-to spots throughout his career is the left elbow, and the Thunder have run a simply screen play with one of their bigs to free him up for an open jumper. At times, it can be automatic when he gets going.
They’ve run a range of actions to free him up off the ball as well, often to get shots at either elbow.
Oladipo has the potential to be a very good off-ball player, but he has to get better at making decisions when he’s trusted to run the offense. The Thunder want to entrust him with more ball-handling duties, and it will be a required part of his development.
He’s still a very good defender, and is the second-best perimeter defender the team has. In terms of defensive fit, he’s well-suited to partnering Westbrook because of his sheer athleticism and it was a significant part of the top ten defense Oklahoma City built this season.
And perhaps, all of this can tie into a glimpse of his future in the league. Oladipo will likely never be a superstar or a star, but he has the ability and scope of development that he could be a 3-and-D player who can also handle the ball and get to the rim. If he can start getting to the line consistently in addition to finishing better, that’s a player worth $21 million per season.
Don’t forget Oladipo’s injuries too. He missed 15 games and played hurt through the middle of the season. The splits either side of this pain give an insight to what his 4th season in the league could have looked like if his health had been better.
They are not huge sample sizes, but the Thunder ran better when Oladipo was healthy. He shot the ball better, which is no surprise considering the issues related to both his back and wrist.
Victor Oladipo hasn’t discovered who he is as a player yet, but the signs are there. If he can work on his weaknesses and continue to hone his best skills, he’ll find himself a spot in this league that is certainly worth the contract his team handed to him.
And at last, Oladipo will have found his home in the NBA.
