What’s Wrong With The Charlotte Hornets?
Preseason expectations for the Charlotte Hornets were optimistic, but mired in a 1–11 slump and seeded 11th — is it time to rebuild?
The 2015–16 season was one of optimism for the Charlotte Hornets and their fanbase. After winning only 33 games the previous year, the Hornets had a very strong year and finished sixth in the Eastern Conference with a record of 48–34. Led by Kemba Walker and a strong supporting cast, which had five players average double figures in PPG, the Hornets made the playoffs and had their best season since they made the name change from the Bobcats to the Hornets.
Despite losing to the Miami Heat in seven games, (although they got blown out in Game 7) the 2015–16 season was a successful one. 2016–17 started off on a good note with Charlotte posting a good record through the first couple months of the season. Given their start, the Hornets quickly jumped up the Eastern Conference standings. Walker was even mentioned in the Top 10 MVP rankings in December. It looked like another recipe for success for head coach Steve Clifford.
But things have been drastically different in the 2017 calendar year.
After posting a record of 19–15 through the first 34 games, Charlotte spiraled out of control and has gone 5–17 since January 1st. This left the Hornets on the outside looking in at playoff seeded teams. Currently they rank 11th and are 2.5 games behind 8th seeded Detroit. There is still time for them to recover, but a four game losing streak heading into the All-Star Break certainly has taken the sting out of the Hornets.
Looking at monthly splits, clearly there hasn’t been much change in the Hornets offensively, especially in points per game scored. But, that doesn’t tell the whole story on that end of the court. Their assists and rebounds per game have dropped. Despite that, their shot attempts and 3-point attempts remain the same. The dilemma is strange given six players score in double digits. It may be at the fact they are relying too much on their key players and are not getting enough production from their role and bench players.
Kemba Walker has improved upon last year’s career season with increases in points per game (20.9 - 22.5) and has an effective field goal percent of 52.2 percent. But, he is on the verge of being overworked averaging 35.3 minutes per game in January. Walker and Nicolas Batum (15 points per game) are two of just three Charlotte players to register a positive offensive box plus/minus this season. Moreover, Walker is miles ahead of his teammates, registering a 4.7 Offensive Box Plus - Minus rating with Batum’s 0.7 coming in as a distant second.
Apart from Batum and Marco Belinelli, Walker’s not getting a lot of help, specifically from the reserves. According to NBAwowy.com, the Hornets have an offensive rating of 99.1 when Walker and Batum are off the court compared to the 110.7 when they are playing. Even with Belinelli averaging 10.8 points per game off the bench, Charlotte doesn’t have enough pop from their reserves to stay in games.
The main point of benches (other than rest for the startering unit) is to help maintain or keep the game within reach. But when Charlotte rolls out its bench lineup, it’s tough on both ends. The bench shoots a decent 42 percent from the field, but when they step out to the perimeter it’s a different story as they shoot a meager 26 percent from deep. This is where the loss of Courtney Lee and Jeremy Lin is most noticeable. Other than Walker and Batum the Hornets lack players who can space the floor or create their own shots.
They also struggle defensively, having a defensive rating of 101.1 when Charlotte’s starters are not on the court. It’s hard to trust a bench like that and that’s why Clifford has only rolled out a lineup without one of his main starters for a total of 171 minutes this season.
Charlotte has also struggled from lack of depth not just off the bench but at the big man spot. With Al Jefferson off to Indiana, Charlotte was left with the trio of Spencer Hawes, Roy Hibbert, and Cody Zeller to man the center position. Zeller initially took control of the spot and showed his importance to Charlotte’s offense and on-court performance. But, a right quad injury has caused him to miss some games. Without Zeller, the Hornets big man are just not good enough to replicate the type of smart plays that he can.
Hawes and Hibbert weren’t good enough off the pick and roll offensively to be effective. And despite being good rim protecters, they struggled when they had to step out of the paint. The most noticeable difference with Zeller on court is the Hornet have a plus 7.8 Offensive Rating. Which speaks to the fact the Hornets are 2–15 when Zeller is out of the lineup (1–9 in last 10 games Zeller was out injured).
Charlotte also took a risk by trading both Hibbert and Hawes to the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for big man Miles Plumlee. The latter signed a four year $50 million contract last offseason. By swapping two big men for a center with a questionable contract, Charlotte has to be hoping that Plumlee can be a solid backup to Zeller and provide quality minutes to help give the bench some life.
Charlotte’s defensive numbers haven’t been the same either. They are allowing more free throws and 3-point attempts in the past two months than they did to start the season. Plus, their points per game allowed has risen to around 107 points per game. It’s not the same ideals you see from a Steve Clifford coached team.
There is something wrong with the Hornets. The team is in the middle of the pack at best. They could sneak into the playoffs as an 8th seed and then likely have to play the Cavaliers in the first round. Many thought Charlotte could possibly take the next leap, but their flaws are too fatal for them. They are relying too much on stars Walker and Batum. Furthermore, the loss of key role players through free agency (Lin and Lee) and injury (Zeller) have really hurt them.
That said, sitting 11th in the East, it’s not out of the possibility to ask if Charlotte should try to rebuild. Let them be sellers at the deadline and try to rebuild a new squad around Walker. It’s a tough decision that the front office are facing, especially given the recent success they experienced last year. But, they have to make a choice and make one soon.
