Green Rookie’s Playbook: The Prisoner’s Dilemma
In the wake of X-Wing 2.0 revelations and an incredible Worlds, I take a quick look at why some might continue to fly the ‘broken’ ships until September.
So much stuff. There’s so much of all of the stuff. Like, stuff overflowing with stuff. Like, I still have my bear from when I was a kid and he has lost so much of the stuffing over the years — that’s not what I’m talking about.
Where to begin? Quite an obvious place to start with — Simeon Delapina won Worlds on Saturday. Wunderkind. I’ve only met Sim a handful of times, one was a mispairing at last year’s Daventry Regional, where despite Sim being paired down — we got in a 15 minute game that was actually my highlight of that weekend. Then there was last year’s Euros, where we didn’t play each other but Sim would often take the time to say hello, see how I was flying and have a quick chat. We’ve kept in touch online since. A really nice guy and someone I think we should be proud to say is a World’s champ. His list was the Jesper Hills styled Control Bots.
What next? Well the 186th won three separate Goldies, that’s Best International Podcast; Best Non-Meta List (For Jesper’s Control Bots) and Phil GC won Best Blog.
What next? Our very own Alex Birt made it to top 16 of Worlds flying Foss Aces. Top 16. Boom. Alex drops the mic, picks it up again to be interviewed by the Mynocks, drops it again only to pick it up later to then record a podcast. My. Hero.
What next? Only X-Wing 2.0 unveiled. So much to say about this — look out for another post at some point where I’ll detail what’s exciting me about September. You could take a look at David Sutcliffe’s blog post Let The Past Die, Kill It If You Have To and Phil GC has a few things to say about it in his latest post It’s The End of The World(s) As We Know It
Finally, and by no means the most important, this
Yeah, I dun wun some things at the Warboar ETC Qualifier, coming 4th out of 20 and with a win rate of 4 and 1. I’d like to say that’s my 80% win rate met right there, but round one was a bye. The rest was all me though — space warts and all.
So how does X-Wing 2.0 create a Prisoner’s Dilemma?
Of all the things that have been spoiled and those who are polarised from excitement to damn right incredulity — the main themes of 2.0 seem to be balance and fairness. No more can someone sneakily attempt a target lock on a ship that is blatantly beyond range three to gauge the distance more accurately for the next turn — this is a failed action. No more can the apparent ‘easy mode’ be engaged when people discuss the merits of arcs vs turrets as, from what we’ve seen, there seems to be some sort of mobile firing arc evident on this picture of the newq Falcon base.
There has been lots of speculation about what is and isn’t occuring and I’m not about to go into it in any great detail in THIS post. By and large, most players are left in a sort of liminal space until September 13th.
Those who know me, and have forgiven me, will be aware of the conflict I have felt about playing ‘bogeyman’ or ‘meta’ lists. It has been a fairly recent change in me that I have come to accept playing a list for its potential merits as a big bad is not such a bad thing.
For a moment, I’d like to address the Prisoner’s Dilemma in game theory. There are some excellent descriptions of this on episode 44 of the 186th Squadron Podcast and Krayts — Listener 4: Git Gud. Here I attempt to muller this with an explanation stolen from here.
Two criminals break into a house and are caught by the police. Let’s imagine the police have been after them for quite some time but have bungled one arrest after another. The evidence for all those other major crimes? It’s insubstantial. This? It’s clear evidence of trespassing.
The cops have two choices — go with this conviction or lean on the two of them in the hope they might cave in.
Each prisoner is in solitary confinement with no means of communicating with the other. The cops offer the prisoners a deal: they can betray the other by saying it was all their idea (‘they made me do it’) or stay quiet, stick to ‘the code’ and simply do their own time.
So the options break down as follows:
- Both confess they each had a part to play in it and they share the time
- A says it was all B and B keeps shtum — A gets off and B goes down
- A remains silent but B dobs A in — B is set free and A goes down for a long stretch
- Both keep quiet and only get convicted for breaking and entering.
In case you missed all that, have a look at the diagram below
What’s this got to do with my spaceships? We all know some ships are more cost efficient and powerful than others. We all know there are those ‘bogey man’ lists as mentioned earlier. However much this can make an impact on your game and your opponent’s experience is in your hands.
- You could both bring that ‘broken’ list and apparently suffer for it (although winning is fun, right?)
- Player A brings NPE list and player B suffers
- Player B brings OP list and A suffers
- You could both bring the fluffy ships you love and have ‘a great time’
However you look at it, there’s only a 1 in 4 chance there that both players will ‘do the right thing’.
We know the big fix is coming, but the old rules still apply until September. You might not like turrets or harpoons or any of the other stuff that you feel ‘breaks’ the game BUT it’s still viable.
My list at Warboar’s Charity ETC Qualifier on Sunday was as follows
Friends don’t let friends play OP3
I actually think this now needs to be the name for this list.
With a win rate of 4 and 1, I feel I know some of the list’s strengths and weaknesses. More importantly, I feel that I am becoming more aware of how my playstyle needs to adapt in order to be more consistent with the list.
The game I learnt the most from, was the game I lost.
Game 4 – tabled by Dominic Flanagan
Dom’s List was
Scurrg H6 Bomber Captain Nym (Veteran Instincts, Autoblaster Turret, Extra Munitions, Harpoon Missiles, Thermal Detonators, Ion Bombs, Havoc title, ‘Genius’, Trajectory Simulator, Long Range Scanners)
T-65 X-Wing Wes Janson (Veteran Instincts, Flight Assist Astromech, Integrated Astromech)
Sheathipede-Class Shuttle Fenn Rau (Adaptability, Sabine Wren, R3-A2)
Great guy. Really enjoyed the game. Really tricky list to face.
What did I learn?
The real problem here, was actually my initial engagement. I’d spent some time skirting with my three ships in formation, starting in the corner, with a hard two turn in and then working to the centre. Why did I go for the joust? It wasn’t just because his ships are pretty (and they are very pretty), but I was thinking to myself that without Lowhhrick, his Nym should go down quickly.
Although aces have returned, Miranda’s PS8 is normally fine. Here, however, with all of Dom’s list at PS10, there’s nothing that she can respond to with simultaneous fire.
Was my target priority correct? I think so. When I reflect upon the outcome of the game, my ships were dead and his were not, so something obviously went wrong somewhere.
so something obviously went wrong somewhere
Passive voice — I assume no responsibility and belive the outcome of the game was out of my control.
I obviously went wrong somewhere. (Active voice — own it).
Next Week: I take a look at target priority and a clear focus on opening engagements.
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