Macro-insights | 12 Signals for a $100K Bitcoin Hope no Hopium
In our previous thesis, we described that after the infrastructure bull-run from early January to mid-April, then the overall market saw a downturn that shakes both institutions and retail investors, and even affected the reversal of the overall cyclical market. After the high point, it fell almost 50%.
Among them, there are many well-known veteran crypto institutions, traditional well-known funds, capitals and VCs, all publicly expressing their positive stance on the long-term market.
1PAR Research not only maintains information communication with crypto capital and venture capital around the world, but at the same time we will take the initiative to find the answer to us from real bitcoin adopters’ activities on the chain on the macro market data, whether the value of a bitcoin is “fundamentals” unchanged , it will experience whether the fundamentals remain unchanged after the market’s sharp correction.
12 signals indicate that the current Bitcoin market is in the middle of the correction and the bull market will continue in this cycle. Chart credits to lookintobitcoin and ecoinometrics.
(1) Reserve Risk allows us to visualise the confidence amongst long term bitcoin holders relative to the price of Bitcoin at a given moment in time. It shows that the current market confidence is far from the peak of the previous cycle.
(2) Active Address Sentiment Indicator is made by comparing the 28 day change in price (%) with the 28 day change in active addresses (%) for Bitcoin, the activity index of the current address has been falling since January this year, and it is far from reaching the high point of the previous cycle.
(3) MVRV Z-Score uses blockchain analysis to identify periods where Bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued relative to its ‘fair value’. 1. Market value (blue line), 2. Realised value (orange line), 3. Z-score (red line). At present, Z-score is far from reaching the upper limit, and it is more like a relay callback in the 2013 cycle.
(4) By observing the Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss chart, observing the color blocks representing the 5 profit stages and the red line (relative unrealised profit/loss), the current UP/L is similar to the return in 2013 and the return in 2017, and is completely Did not reach the high point of the last two halving cycles.
(5) The past cases of 1Y+ HODL Wave, after a cyclical price high, the number of bitcoin addresses held for more than one year will decrease to about 30–40%, while the current account ratio is 50%, so we expect this ratio will decrease as the callback ends.
（6）Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves simulates each marginal regression curve based on the Fibonacci sequence of each value. Obviously, the 64,000 BTC price in early May was not the peak.
（7）The Golden Ratio Multiplier uses multiples of the 350 day moving average (350DMA) of Bitcoin’s price to identify areas of potential resistance to price movements. The current BTC price does not touch the dotted line of the previous high retracement (X5 Upper bull high)
（8）The 2-Year MA Multiplier is intended to be used as a long term investment tool. It highlights periods where buying or selling Bitcoin during those times would have produced outsized returns. Bitcoin price has ushered in the recent correction after getting close to 2 Year Moving Average * 5, which is more like a mid-period adjustment in the previous cycle, and is far from reaching the previous peak signal.
(9) In each of its major market cycles, Bitcoin’s price historically bottoms out around the 200 week moving average. At the current price position, we are far from reaching the previous peak.
（10）The Puell Multiple looks at the supply side of Bitcoin’s economy — bitcoin miners and their revenue. Where the daily issuance value was extremely high is Puell Multiple entering red box). Not peak either.
(11) Relative to the most well-known Stock-to-flow model, Figure 1 shows that it generally reaches a high point after the 800th day (green line segment) after the halving, and there is still some time away. Figure 2 shows that the model variance of the Stock/flow index generally peaks in the BTC price after the red reaches the high point. Not peak either.
(12) The upper and lower price limits of BTC price trends displayed by ecoinomics after the last two halvings give us a good price reference. After the overall halving, there is still a channel for price increases for about one and a half years (after the halving).
In above charts, we have collected a total of 11 on-chain data about Bitcoin, in summary, we believe that after a healthy correction, the bull-run movement will continue.
Disclaimer: Any investments or portfolios described or referred to on this Page are not representative of all investments made by funds managed by 1PAR and there can be no assurance that the investments described are, or will be, profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar character or results.
Nothing on this Page constitutes investment, accounting, tax or legal advice or is a recommendation that you purchase, sell or hold any token or other investment or that you pursue any investment style or strategy. Views expressed in “Research” by any individuals (including any podcasts, videos, and social media) are those of the individual quoted therein. Any opinions expressed on this Website are subject to change.
