The Perebudova Deal
Save Ukraine before there’s no Ukraine left to save.
It is going according to plan, sadly
It is going according to plan, sadly, it has been said by people with way more geopolitic experience than me, but I just want to echo it here. If we used the US-Afghan war as a metric, it’s going pretty well for the Russians, sanctions slow down progress but stopping the invasion for any sanction is politcal suicide, Putin has too much goverment, media and oligarchy power to expect a russian revolution with Navalny which is the closer to Lenin that this neo-Romanovsky has.
Staying on course will result probably not only on a long war but on the near total destruction of Ukraine. Kyiv in itself doesn’t have the leverage to negotiate peace, and it complying with Moscow demands is basically dismanlting the country, it’ll be losing a big part of the country, it cannot leverage or protect itself in the future, and worst of all it’ll have no way to rebuild the country. If the west keep pushing Moscow, the russian response will be to keep escalating the invasion. The more you corner Putin and the more pressure he gets not only from outside but within the country the tighter the control it tries to enforce. Nobody wants to see how far you can stretch this rubber band before it snaps.
Just as the west has coordinated sanctions against Moskva to great effect, now it needs to align all states to settle a peace agreement that allows Putin to win before it’s too late for Ukraine. It has to be a win-win, of course Russia has to compromise but not as much as the West wants to, this isn’t the time to stand ground on principles or to show muscle if we really want to save the ukranian people.
Right now is the moment to get to an agreement, most goverments have people support to push forward unilateral agendas, but the crowd attention span is short, and conflicts specially Russian ones can extend longer that people care. Again, if the West don’t go to the table soon, this will either dragged longer that the public care and it’ll result on the Chechnya 2.0 or worse, the Brussels and Washington will push Russia so hard that we will trip with the assasination of the archduke Ferdinand at some point.
The Perevudova Deal has as it’s main objective the rebuild of Ukraine. Sanctions cripple Russian economy, which once the dust settles it’ll have what it wants geopolitically, Ukraine will be all that dust, and no one will have the tools to help the ukranian people. The Perevudova Deal first and foremost looks to give Kyiv a chance to rebuild itself while also secures it’s future.
The Perevudova Deal
- The international community will acknowledge Crimea, and the Donbas regions as part of the Russian Federation.
- All sanctions created as a result of the russian invation will be lifted (that includes the restart of the Nord Stream II project).
- Moskva must repay Kyiv for reparations caused to civilian damage caused during the war.
- Moskva must repay all the civilian assistance given to Kyiv to its aides.
- Ukraine joins NATO
- Russia must recognize Ukraine as a NATO country and its right to join the EU.
I would add a last point to which I lack the knowledge to guess how key it can be. If part of Putin’s plan was to create a land corridor that connected Crimea to their main land, it should be only if Russia is willing to invest in the creation of an economic sustitution of Mariupol for Ukraine.
