Contenders vs Pretenders: Who Really Has a Chance at the Title?
Every year for any sport there are top teams. Unfortunately, only one can win the championship and only a few extra have a legitimate chance to win it all. In this article, we will analyze which teams are going to have that chance to bring a title to their city and which ones are simply not good enough to do so.
Contenders vs. Pretenders: Who are the Real Powerhouses?
From the teams with the top nine records in the league- Celtics, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Nets, Bucks, Pelicans, 76ers, Cavaliers, and Kings- there are only 4–5 teams that I see as genuine contenders for the NBA Finals title this year.
We’ll start on a positive note and here are the teams that I believe are true contenders.
Boston Celtics: 33–12 (1st in East)
The Celtics have not played their best basketball as of late. Starting the season 21–5, they have been 12–7 since which has been a result of their offense taking a dip since their first 26 games. Starting the season being a historically great offense, they stalled during their first west coast trip. They were the fourth worst offense in the month of December, but that struggle made them find their defense from last season, ranking 2nd in the month of December with a 107.2 defensive rating. Teams can expect cold spells which is what Boston attributes their issues to for they have seemed to find their stride the last few games. The depth and superstar talent on this team project well for the playoffs and they have plenty of experience on their roster.
Denver Nuggets: 31–13 (T-1st in West)
The Nuggets are heating up, and I mean really heating up. They are up to number one in the West which has been largely in part to their 1–2 record in their last 15 games. In that span, their offensive rating of 120.7 and a net rating of 10.1, nearly two points above second place. With their MVP frontrunner in Nikola Jokic and overall very deep roster, their success is not a fluke. They can shoot (40% from 3 as a team by the way), score, and have been defending well during their hot streak. There are reasons that this team is number 1 in the West and could, by June, be the last team standing.
Memphis Grizzlies: 30–13 (T-1st in West)
The Grizzlies are right in the same conversation as the Nuggets for it’s a race between the two for the Western Conference. They have been hot recently, but while the Nuggets have been scoring like no other, the Grizzlies have been holding their own on the other end. The Grizzlies are the number one defensive team this season posting a 108.9 defensive rating this season and a 107.7 in their last 15. They have managed to rise to 2nd in the league in net rating while being only 7th in offense. They have their superstar player in Ja Morant who now has some playoff experience under his belt while they have two extremely good defensive bigs in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Steven Adams. If their shooting can improve, being 19th in the league in 3PT%, the league and fans will have to give this team more notice than they are getting right now.
Brooklyn Nets: 27–16 (4th in East)
The Nets, when healthy, have a roster that many people seem to forget is stacked with talent. Durant, Irving, Simmons (don’t give me anything about his scoring numbers), Seth Curry, Joe Harris, Nic Claxton, the list goes on of players who make the Nets so dangerous. Everyone saw what they could be when they went on their huge win streak, but once Durant went out with a sprained MCL the team saw their offense take a major hit, as one would expect when your MVP candidate goes out. When Durant returns expect this roster to be back to its heavy hitting offense that made them the threat that they were not two weeks ago.
Milwaukee Bucks: 29–16 (2nd in East)
I do not care what they have done recently. This team has Giannis, Middleton, and Jrue Holiday, they are very good. Giannis and Middleton are hurt right now which has been a huge struggle for them, but that should have been predictable. If you take Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown off of the Celtics they would be a significantly worse team as well. With that being said, when healthy the Bucks are a juggernaut defensively and can have stretches of offensive greatness. If they are healthy by playoff time, they can match up with anyone and they have done it before with essentially the same roster.
Unfortunately, not every team has the skill to be one of these top 5 teams. These teams are the true pretenders of the top 9.
Philadelphia 76ers: 28–16 (3rd in East)
The Philadelphia 76ers are a very good team, don’t get me wrong. Pretenders does not mean that they are bad and can’t eliminate one of the contenders. All that it means is that I don’t believe that they have a real chance at winning the title. Joel Embiid is having as dominant of a season as ever, James Harden has been great for the team since being traded from Brooklyn, however, and I will admit, this isn’t necessarily a statistical/analytical pick like I usually do. This is more about the depth that I believe this team has which is not strong in my eyes. Embiid, Harden, Maxey, and Tobias Harris are great offensive players for the team and can score often at will. Unfortunately, not many players from their bench can really do the same. They do have talent, and if any team is going to make me regret putting them in pretenders, it is them, but I just cannot see them putting it together for multiple series in a row.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 28–17 (5th in East)
The Cavaliers have arguably the best defensive starting 5 in the NBA with Garland, Mitchell, Okoro, Mobley, and Allen. This defense can suffocate you on the perimeter and, despite not being a top team in blocks per game, they are extremely tough to get shots against at the rim. Their issue is that they can be streaky offensively, coming in at 12th in the league in offensive rating. The shooting from the team isn’t terrific and the bench depth is concerning, very similar to the Pelicans in those regards. They do have an established number one option which is integral to playoff success (Warriors with KD and Steph is an exception). Could they upset the Celtics in a potential 2nd round matchup? It is definitely possible since they have beaten them twice in close games already, but seeing how young this roster is they most likely won’t see themselves competing greatly in big games. The potential is there, it’s just hard to see this year being their’s.
New Orleans Pelicans: 26–18 (3rd in West)
The Pelicans are an electric team to watch. The ability they have to hype up their crowd from a poster dunk or from hot offensive streaks is what has turned this franchise around. The main issue with the Pelicans is their experience. Much of the main core of the roster has only played in one playoff series being last season versus the Suns. Now, they are improved from the season prior, but typically teams with as little experience as this one don’t perform as well as they may seem during the regular season. Their health is also a major concern for them given Brandon Ingram has missed some time and Zion is a walking injury. They are a solid all around team, but with inexperience and health concerns, it is hard to see them coming out of the West.
Sacramento Kings: 24–18 (4th in West)
Wow. Who could have seen this coming? The Kings definitely got better than last year, but jumping to fourth in the West is wild. They have been the number 3 offense in the NBA posting a 117.3 offensive rating on the season. They can shoot and they can dominate the paint with Domantas Sabonis proving his all star status as their main post focus. Despite the skills they do possess, the one they lack is defense, which happens to be a major player come playoff time. The Kings are ranked 24th in the league in. defensive rating which is not going to fare well for them in the playoffs against other elite offenses. Along with the poor defense, this team has the least experience out of any team given the franchise hasn’t seen the postseason since 2006. The lights may become too bright for this young roster.
