Retool or Rebuild: How Should the Boston Red Sox Attack the 2022–2023 Offseason?
The Boston Red Sox had one of the more underwhelming seasons in the MLB this season. They started off slow and never seemed to be able to gain traction aside from the month of June where they magically put things together. One can look at their team batting stats and say they put together a very good season for they did finish 3rd in the MLB in batting average. However, if you watched their offense during this season, it was evident that they did not hit when they needed to. Too often they left runners on base in late game situations or during innings where in the year prior they would have put up a crooked number. The Red Sox’s pitching obviously was not good this year in either the starting staff or the bullpen. Their bullpen posted a 4.59 ERA alone and the staff as a whole posted a 4.53, good for 6th worst in the entire MLB. Despite their struggles, they managed to finish 78–84 which is very good for a “last place team.” I put that it quotes because 78–84 is no last place record. When 4 of the 5 teams in the division finish with a record over .500 it’s going to be hard to compete. They are most likely a .500 or slightly over team in almost any other division in the MLB. Unfortunately, we can’t play the “what if” and “if only” game. The reality is this team underperformed and was never really competitive for any long stretch this season.
The Red Sox have some options this upcoming offseason. They need to decide now whether they want to rebuild and let some young talent develop or if they want to try and compete for a playoff spot and grab some new pieces for their 2023 roster. Most of these options depend on if their star shortstop, Xander Bogaerts, opts into the rest of his contract or if he opts out and becomes and unrestricted free agent. If Bogaerts leaves, do the Red Sox even bother trying to compete? If he does, it might be best to have a year or two of rebuilding. Now, when I say rebuilding, I do not mean the type that the Washington Nationals are doing. I do not mean trade every good piece you have for a top tier prospect. If the Red Sox did that and even mentioned trading a player like Rafael Devers, the city of Boston might explode from rioting. Rebuilding in this case would mean don’t sign anyone new to any big contracts. Stick with the players you got and call up top prospects to get experience. Instead of going out to trade for or sign a new first baseman, let Triston Casas have a full year at first base to develop his skills for the future. Let some young pitchers take a year or two and get adjusted to MLB hitting so when the team is ready to compete for a playoff spot and World Series again, they are prepared. Pitchers like Brayan Bello and eventually Bryan Mata will benefit greatly from a year or two of fairly stress free baseball in terms of high leverage games.
The Red Sox have three free agents this offseason that can make or break how they proceed with the rest of the offseason. That is Nathan Eovaldi, J.D Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts (if he decides to opt out of his contract). Given how poor the Red Sox played during the 2022 season, it would be best if they left in free agency and the Red Sox decided to have a quick rebuild and develop their young talent. It will hurt everyone in Boston to see these three leave for they were all major contributors to the unreal 2018 World Series roster. However, if the Red Sox want continuous success in the future, they will need to let these guys walk.
Bogaerts right now is in the middle of his prime. A giant contract extension wouldn’t be smart given he is already 30 years old and he already has multiple people lined up to be his successor in the middle of the infield. The Red Sox middle infield prospects include names such as Enmanuel Valdez, Marcelo Mayer, and Nick Yorke. While these players develop in the minor leagues, Trevor Story can man down shortstop which is his natural position and has proved in years prior to be excellent defensively on that side of the infield. If the Red Sox decide to try to sign Bogaerts to a smaller deal in terms of years, that won’t be the worst thing in the world. Given the trend in recent years of long term contracts to superstars, the chances are slim Bogaerts will want to sign for a few years. He could opt-in to his current contract, but that also seems to not be very likely. The other two major expiring contracts are a little easier to evaluate since they aren’t on the same talent level that Bogaerts is on. Many Boston fans will be scratching their heads if either Eovaldi or Martinez finds themselves in Boston next spring.
Martinez is heading into next season starting at age 35 and will end it being 36. He as already shown a decline in his power and overall hitting aside from the last week where he drank from the fountain of youth. There really is no point of bringing him back when the Red Sox can call up a player to fill the DH role or maybe even try Bobby Dalbec there to see if something changes in him to prove he deserves a roster spot.
Eovaldi has been solid during his tenure in Boston, but he, like Martinez, is simply just a waste of money and will waste the young talent’s development. There is no point to sign a pitcher going into his age 33 season who will most likely get some decent money from a competing team to be a number 3 or 4 starter. There are pitchers like Brayan Bello, Josh Winckowski, Connor Seabold, and Bryan Mata who can benefit from having a full year of development without needing to worry about playoffs and winning every game. Obviously one would hope they want to win, but there is a much different feel to the game when you are throwing in high leverage games versus games where the outcome does not matter since you aren’t expected to contend for a playoff spot. It will be smart to keep veterans like Michael Wacha and Rich Hill (possibly) who will be cheap to sign and they can mentor the young guns as they start their hopefully successful careers (if they resign in the offseason).
The Red Sox also have the option of simply re-tooling their roster this offseason. This meaning that if Bogaerts, Martinez, and Eovaldi leave, they try to fill their roles on the roster with new star players. If they decide to retool, the Red Sox will have to be very cautious of their situation with the luxury tax for they are currently over the tax threshold of $230 million by $25 million. Boston is a massive market for sports. They can spend the money if they really want to win a championship soon. The only question being if ownership will allow Chaim Bloom to spend the money that the team has. Will they let Chaim Bloom have a little freedom in how he spends and see if he is capable of building a true championship roster? We have seen he is more than capable of trading for great young talent and under the radar players, but how good can he be if he is given the opportunity and do his job?
Potential Players to Pursue if a Retool Is in Place:
Carlos Rodon, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants
2022 Stats: 14–8, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 178 IP, 237 Ks
Fit: Carlos Rodon would be a pitcher the Red Sox would pursue if they were looking for an ace. In 2021 he showed how good he could be and in 2022 he solidified himself as a legitimate ace. Rodon would definitely cost some money, but given his track record of success and the fact that he is only 29, he may be worthwhile investment if the Red Sox want to compete next year. Keep in mind, this would only be possible if Rodon opts-out of his current deal with San Francisco.
Edwin Diaz, Closing Pitcher, New York Mets
2022 Stats: 32 SV, 1.31 ERA, 0.839 WHIP, 17.1 K/9
Fit: This is a long shot, I know. This is very improbable, but the entire point of this is to find players that the Red Sox could go after if they decide to retool and not rebuild. Diaz is unreal. He struck out almost half of the batters he faced this season which is unheard of. If the Red Sox decided to retool, but not sign any solid starting pitching, then they might as well bulk up the bullpen as much as possible. Diaz is lights out and electric coming out in the ninth. He would fit amazingly in the back end of the Boston bullpen, but he would also fit anywhere he decided to go.
Josh Bell, First Base, San Diego Padres
2022 Stats: .266/.362/.422, 17 HR, 71 RBI
Fit: There was some interest, at least among the fanbase, in trading for Josh Bell at the trade deadline this past season. His stats are a tad bit skewed due to him struggling since the trade to San Diego, but he was a much better hitter in Washington where he was hitting at a .301 clip before the trade. He provides some diversity in any lineup as a power hitting switch hitter. He is not a very good defender, but at least he can hit to make up for it. This signing would assume that Casas would still be a bench player for anothe year unless he assumed J.D. Martinez’s role as the designated hitter.
Dansby Swanson, Shortstop, Atlanta Braves
2022 Stats: .277/.329/.447, 25 HR, 96 RBI
Fit: Xander Bogaerts is most likely going to leave in free agency and Dansby Swanson could be a solid replacement for even less money. He is a reliable hitter who has very good power for a shortstop. He isn’t going to contend for batting titles every year like Bogaerts, but he will hit the ball well and hit well in clutch moments which the Red Sox needed this year. He also has maybe the best glove at shortstop in the MLB given he was in the 100th percentile in Outs Above Average this season. He would be a good fit for the replacement of Bogaerts and would cost much less.
Aaron Judge, Outfield, New York Yankees
2022 Stats: .311/.425/.686, 62 HR, 131 RBI
Fit: I mean, why not? If you want to win why not bring in the best hitter in the league? Judge fits in with any offense and would be a one man wrecking crew with the Green Monster out in left field. Boston shoudn’t have any reason to not at least try and sign Judge if they plan on retooling the roster. It never hurts to bring in the American League leader in homeruns in a single season. Judge would clearly cost a fortune to sign and there is almost no chance he would sign with his team’s archrival. If you are the Red Sox front office and you decide to try to win now, might as well make an attempt at Judge.
I believe it will be most beneficial to the organization’s future if they decide to rebuild. Build the young talent and, if they turn out well, they either can be integral pieces to the team’s success or they can be traded for even better talent. These next few years might be tough to endure as a Red Sox fan if they take that route. A few seasons of losing will be worth an even longer period of consecutive winning. It will be interesting to see how things pan out with some of the young stars, though. Triston Casas showed he has potential to become the next star first baseman for this franchise, but can he maintain that success for an entire season (I know his stats weren’t great but watching his at-bats you see his talent)? Can Bobby Dalbec and/or Jarren Duran become more than a AAA version of Barry Bonds and have any success in the MLB? There are lots of questions that can be answered in the 2023 season for the Red Sox, but we will have to see how this offseason goes to see if those questions will be answered.
