Running Backs Are Not Valuable Anymore: Here’s Why
Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt are all still free agents as of June 28th 2023. Seems a bit odd for backs that are all under 28 and have been big productive names in the NFL for the past six years. This isn’t complete madness exhibited by NFL teams for not signing them, rather it’s a result of the way the game has changed and how it has essentially phased out the importance of the running back.
The hesitance to sign aging backs isn’t something completely new, but to see running backs that still have high production like Cook and Elliott be completely ignored on the market is. Cook has rushed for over 1,100 yards each of his last four seasons and has eclipsed 30 receptions in each of his last five. Cook has also done all this while keep his average yards per rush above 4.4. Elliott on the other hand has been less productive, but nonetheless a solid player at his position. While splitting carries with now Cowboys starting back Tony Pollard, Elliott rushed for 876 yards and 12 TD on 3.8 yards per carry. A declining, but solid enough stat line to get him at least a flyer somewhere in the league, yet that hasn’t happened.
Why hasn’t anyone taken a shot on any of these four backs? Obviously Cook has had reported offers, but the other three have been radio silent since the beginning of the offseason. The answer to why no one wants to bring these guys in is simple, it’s the money.
Running backs have found it harder and harder over the past several years to land deals that were on par pay wise with other skill positions. One of the richest running back deals in NFL history came all the way back in 2011 when all time great Adrian Peterson signed a 7 year $96 million dollar deal with the Minnesota Vikings. The deal guaranteed Peterson $36 million of that and averaged out to about $13.7 million per year. The current richest contract for a running back in the NFL is held by 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, who signed a 4 year $64 million dollar contract with the Carolina Panthers in 2020. If you can’t do math, that’s $16 million a year. So some running backs have gone up in salary, but teams are hesitant to commit long term, and the pay increase hasn’t been nearly has substantial with a rising cap as other positions have received.
If we look at the highest paid receiver in 2011 it was then 27 year old Larry Fitzgerald, who received an 8 year $120 million dollar deal from the Arizona Cardinals. That’s $15 million a season at the same age Cook got released from the Vikings for making $10.4 million a year. In today’s NFL wide receivers have a taken a huge step in salary, reaching into what top of the line QB’s used to make in 2011. Today’s highest paid wide receiver is Tyreek Hill, who signed a 4 year $120 million dollar deal with the Miami Dolphins in 2022. That’s $30 million dollars per season for a player who was 28 years old at the time of the contract being signed.
Running backs simply haven’t gotten that jump in pay and the reason why is obvious. One, running backs don’t last as long. Running backs demanding wages at $5 million plus per year like Cook are already on the decline, and while 4.4 YPC isn’t a bad stat line, that age 30 mark is about when running backs stop being the bell cow and fall into obscurity. Teams don’t want to be tied up with a running back at age 30 who’s making $7 million and has multiple years left on their contract. As for wide receivers, players like Davante Adams are hitting the peak of their careers when they hit age 31 and bring more value to a team than a running back can. Right now you can’t name a single running back over 30 that can be a lead back in the NFL, as for other skill positions, there are a plethora of options. Big deals for Running backs past 27 is a bad investment.
Two, running backs are so easily replaceable. Let’s look at the New England Patriots history of running backs in the past ten years. The team has only had three 1,000 yard rushers in this span and yet has won three Super Bowls and owned the AFC for almost the entire duration. 1,200 yard rusher Stevan Ridley was replaced after two seasons of leading the team in rushing by Jonas Gray who only rushed for 421 yards in 2014. The Patriots won the Super Bowl that year without a back eclipsing 450 rushing yards. Gray was then replaced by LeGarrette Blount who rushed for 1,800 yards combined over two seasons and was then replaced by Dion Lewis for one season of service. Sony Michel was drafted on a rookie contract for the following two years and was replaced by newly drafted Damien Harris who took the lead the next two seasons. Finally, Rhamondre Stevenson took the reins in 2022, rushing for 1,040 yards, while only making $940,000. During these ten years, James White, a man known more for his receiver like catching ability than his rushing skills, was the highest paid back, receiving a 3 year $15 million dollar contract in 2017. Three championships, and the most they ever had to pay a back was $5 million and that was to be a pass catcher. If this doesn’t prove you don’t need an elite running back, I don’t know what does.
Finally, like shown from the Patriots list of running backs throughout the last ten years, paying a running back doesn’t win you a championship. In the case of the last 10 teams to win a Super Bowl, the highest paid back was Marshawn Lynch, just merely making it into the time frame making $7 million per year when he won the Super Bowl with the Seahawks in 2013. The other backs include LeGarrette Blount in 2014 ($730,000), C.J. Anderson in 2015 ($580,000), LeGarrette Blount in 2016 ($760,000), LeGarrette Blount in 2017 ($900,000), Sony Michel in 2018 ($480,000), Damien Williams in 2019 ($1,050,000), Leonard Fournette in 2020 ($2,000,000), Cam Akers in 2021 ($1,500,000), and most recently Miles Sanders ($1,300,000). Outside of Lynch in 2013, not one back crossed over $2 million in annual salary and were not signed on with the team they won the championship with for more than three years after the game.
Most running backs that do get paid nowadays are those that are valuable in both demensions of the game, rushing and receiving. McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara were both young at the time of their league leading contract extensions and have each been able to put up 800 yards plus receiving seasons. This is what the running back position needs to become if they want to get paid. Downhill workhorse running backs like Hunt, Fournette, Elliott, and Cook are going to become obsolete in the coming years or just continue to be recycled after their cheap rookie contracts end. With NFL teams realizing the shift to pass heavy offenses and how paying running backs prevent success, running backs are not going to get the contracts they once did.
Today’s NFL is a completely different game than it was 20, even 10 years ago. The days of Adrian Peterson like 2,000 yard backs that go until they’re 35 years old are gone. NFL GM’s have realized the flaws in paying running backs and if you were in the same position, you would just draft a new back every four years too. Unfortunately for Cook, Elliott, Hunt, and Fournette, they need to realize they are not as valuable as they seem to think and take what they can get. There are about 10 plug and play early 20 year old running backs coming into the draft every year that can be a starting back on a Super Bowl winning team. What should stop teams from taking the guy who makes under $1 million dollars a season to man the backfield, when the results are on the paper. Running backs are not valuable anymore, and it’s time that everyone just accepts that.
