Where Do The Yankees Go From Here? End of the Baby Bombers?

In 2017, the New York Yankees had just gone 84–78 as the 4th seed in the AL East the season prior, were retooling and didn’t have championship aspirations yet. However, the team had a young player emerge as a cornerstone on each side of the ball that season. 23 year old Luis Severino had 22 starts over the previous two seasons, with a 2.89 ERA in 11 starts in 2015, and a 5.83 ERA over 22 games(11 starts) the following season, although his FIP in 2015 was actually 4.37, then 4.48 in 2016. There were still questions about the hard throwing right hander going into the season. In 2017, he answered those questions, finishing 3rd in AL Cy Young voting, and making his first All-Star game as he pitched a 2.98 ERA(3.08 FIP) over 31 starts and 193 innings. He increased his strikeout numbers to 10.7/9 and cut his walk numbers to 2.4/9 as he established himself as the Yankee ace. A 24 year old Aaron Judge had just made his big league debut at the end of the 2016 season and struggled, slashing just .179/.262/.608, but still tantalized the team and fans with his power potential. He delivered on that potential the following season, hitting a then rookie record 52 home runs as he finished 2nd in Al MVP voting, won an All-Star appearance, and took home a Silver Slugger Award. The team won 91 games, entered the playoffs as a Wild Card team and made a magical run to the ALCS, taking the eventual champion Astros to 7 games. The future looked bright in the Bronx, the era of Baby Bombers was here and 2017 was just the start.

Now, 5 years later, that ALCS trip is still the furthest the Yankees have gone in the playoffs since. They have made the playoffs every season since, exiting in the WC once, ALDS twice, and ALCS twice(3 including 2017). Every time they have reached the ALCS, they have met Houston, and been dispatched in increasingly quick order; they went to 7 in 2017, then 6 in 2019, and just went out in an embarrassing sweep in 2022. The Astros have lost a GM, manager, Carlos Correa, George Springer, and more over that time, but the gap between the two teams has only increased. They continue to haunt New York Octobers. It is now possible that both of the stars who kick-started this era of Yankees baseball won’t be on the team next season. It’s not the most likely possibility, but it is possible. The Yankees have a club option on Severino for $15M and Aaron Judge is of course a free agent. Regardless of what happens with them, it does have many reflecting and questioning the organization. That 2017 team may have been more like last year’s Red Sox or this year’s Phillies, but there was still a lot to work off of having young stars under team control plus a top 3 payroll in the sport annually. If you would have told a Yankees fan in 2017 that the special run to the ALCS would be the furthest they would go over Judge’s years of club control, they would be very disappointed.

Although every offseason in the Bronx could be considered a big one with how many eyes are on them constantly, this one does feel especially important considering where the team is, and the people out of contract in the organization. I’ll be going over some topics that the Yankees will have to address this offseason, giving my opinion, and what I think the organization will actually do throughout.

1. GENERAL MANAGER

The longest serving GM in the MLB today is Brian Cashman, but his contract does expire this year. He was hired all the way back in 1998 and oversaw the Yankees ‘98-’00 threepeat right off the bat, then won another World Series in 2009, but has now gone without a World Series appearance(let alone victory) since. Going 13 years without a World Series appearance as the General Manager of the New York Yankees means you’re going to catch stick from the fans and media, and Cashman certainly has. This was his contract year, and he didn’t have an overly good one. His swap of Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela for Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt stands out as bad. Kiner-Falefa was their starting SS but disappointed all year, leading to a game of musical chairs at shortstop in the Postseason as 3 different players started there in the ALCS. Josh Donaldson took a massive step back offensively as his wRC+ dropped 29(!) points, and his good defense still didn’t justify his bloated $25M salary. A good deal he made was acquiring the Rangers backup catcher Jose Trevino for reliever Albert Abreu(who ended up back in the Bronx after getting cut by the Rangers then Royals) and a 24 year old reliever in A+ ball. Trevino became the Yankees starting catcher and made his first All-Star game while his defense was phenomenal. He had a few other good and bad trades, with all but the last of his deadline deal moves flopping, but I do believe the Yankees will continue their relationship with Cashman. He’s been there 24 years already and led plenty of worse performances, I don’t see them deciding a 99 win season and ALCS appearance will disappoint them all of a sudden. Likewise, I don’t see Boone going anywhere after he got an extension following a Wild Card exit last season, so I won’t devote any time to that.

2. The Elephant in the Room

There may be no contract year better than the one Aaron Judge just had, and he did it after rejecting a sizable $213.5M/7y contract offer before the season started. The contract he will land this winter will most definitely start with a 3. It’s just a question of if it’ll be the Bronx Bombers winning the bidding war. The superstar had arguably the best single season since Barry Bonds, putting up ridiculous numbers. He set the Yankees record for home runs in a season with 62, while slashing .311/.425/.686 for a mind-boggling 207 wRC+ and 11.5 fWAR. He has answered durability questions after playing 157 and 148 games the last two seasons, and even played over half his games at a tougher position in centerfield. However, he will be 31 just after the season starts next year, and one can question how a 6'7" position player will age(especially with Stanton signed long term and already confined to DH duties). His latest postseason performances also left a sour taste in fan’s mouths(.180 OPS against Houston, .490 OPS overall) and going back to 2020, he has a .565 OPS in 17 postseason games, which is disappointing. One can’t forget his monstrous regular season was a big reason the Yankees won the division in the first place though, as he carried the lineup at times. His bat was especially important during a rough August in which the Rays closed within 3 games of the Yankees and the lineup struggled mightily. All being said, I do think the most likely outcome is Judge re-signing with the Yankees(ESPN reporter Jeff Passan agrees). They have money coming off the books in names that won’t be brought back($18M for Chapman, $14M for Britton), know Judge is a money maker besides being a big part of their lineup, and part of the reason they passed on the big shortstop names last season was with Judge’s extension in mind. I think there’s too much pressure on the Yankees to not be aggressive in trying to re-sign Judge and he’ll eventually return. I personally don’t buy into all this Giants talk. They should factor in the race, as should a lot of teams, but I don’t see them going all out on the 31 year old Judge either. Their payroll was middle of the park, as was their offense…and pitching too. Besides being close to his home, I don’t see the selling point for Judge on a team that played mediocrely in 2022 and has their ace(Carlos Rodón) also hitting the market. The Dodgers should also factor into the race, but again, I think he re-ups with the Yankees, but we will see.

3.Wheeling and Dealing staff

One thing the Yankees won’t have to worry about is their pitching staff. After ranking midtable in ERA in 2019 and 2020, the team ranked 6th in 2021 and 3rd this last season. They have built a good set of starters backed by a strong bullpen. Big name and salary ace Gerrit Cole was the victim of the 2nd highest home run to flyball ratio(by .1 %) in MLB as he pitched to an underwhelming 3.50 ERA in the regular season, but he proved his worth in the Postseason. His stuff is still top tier amongst starters and there’s little question he’s their ace despite another great season from Nestor Cortes, who actually managed to outdo his 2.90 ERA breakout year last season with a 2.44 ERA and All-Star appearance in 2022. There should be little movement this year. They will likely pick up Severino’s $15M club option, as solid starter Taillon will most likely depart starting pitcher wise. In the bullpen, the Yankees will be glad to see Aroldis Chapman’s $18M salary and Zack Britton’s $14M salary off the books next season. Chad Green will also be leaving as will Miguel Castro. 2 of the 4 didn’t play a part in this season through injuries(Britton, Green), Chapman was awful, and Castro was alright, also missing a decent chunk of the season. I think the Yankees will give Clarke Schmidt a chance to fill Taillon’s spot in the rotation, and hope Montas bounces back. We shouldn’t expect a drop-off in pitching, although the well-regarded pitching coach Matt Blake’s contract expired so they’ll have to make an effort to re-sign him.

4. Re-Sign or Move On?

I have already covered some of the Yankees that will be free agents this winter, but I will list out all the big names and the case for and against here:

Aaron Judge, RF/CF, 31: already covered

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, 33(likely opt-out):

• the case FOR: Rizzo tied his career high in single-season homers this year at 32 putting up a 132 wRC+ in the process. He’s very well-liked in the clubhouse and still a very capable player
• the case AGAINST: Rizzo suffered from back injury and pain last season, which is concerning. The metrics say his defense isn’t what it once was despite some flashy scoops at first base.

My verdict: Anthony Rizzo is still a positive on and off the field for the Yankees, and there aren’t many alternatives in free agency(Josh Bell comes to mind). I would probably extend him and I think the Yankees will look to do that. The length of contract he wants this offseason will probably decide if he sticks around however.

Andrew Benintendi, LF, 28:

• the case FOR: Benintendi is a solid outfielder hitting the market at a good age. He’s a contact hitter with decent plate discipline and covers left field adequately.
• the case AGAINST: Benintendi had a high BABIP(7th in baseball this year) and could regress. We also didn’t get a chance to see him after his hamate injury late into the year and don’t know how it could affect his already-limited power.

My verdict: The potential for an upgrade at left field exists in free agency, but Benintendi would be a solid fallback option. We now know how flawed contact hitters are, but Benintendi has enough plate discipline to bring value as a leadoff hitter.

Jameson Taillon, SP, 31:

• the case FOR: Could be a solid 5th starter. Limits walks. Has pitched plenty of innings in the last 2 years.
• the case AGAINST: Injury concerns still exist and his performances dropped off after a strong first half of the year.

My verdict: The price on him likely outweighs his value to the Yankees in particular. Other teams with a greater need for starting pitchers will likely outbid the Yankees(if they pursue him). Could be a qualifying offer candidate as he’d likely take a multi-year offer with a lower AAV over one year of $19M given his injury history.

Matt Carpenter, DH, 37:

• the case FOR: Could be a great hitter again, in pinch-hit situations and starting when injuries inevitably happen.
• the case AGAINST: One doesn’t know how much of his rough Postseason was rust and how much was regression after an unsustainable start. There’ll be more suitors for his services than last year and he may be priced out of reasonable range.

My verdict: The Yankees were the only team to respond to Carpenter’s proposal to return to the big leagues and he rewarded them by hitting out of his mind over 47 games(217 wRC+ with 15 homers)before getting hurt and looking lost in the postseason once he returned. He stated his intent to play again in 2023 and the upside of a great hitter exists for the Yankees. They would be taking on more risk this time around however, given his injury and increased interest. I think both sides come to another 1 year agreement.

Aroldis Chapman, RP, 34:

• the case FOR: He can still throw baseballs hard?
• the case AGAINST: Aroldis Chapman’s (two) tenure(s) in pinstripes had their highs and lows but ended on a big low. He still had good velocity(96th percentile in fastball velocity) this year but returned a career worst 4.46 ERA as he finally lost his closer title. He then went AWOL in the Postseason, skipping a mandatory bullpen session before the ALDS which seemingly soured the relationship with the team for good. He was overpaid, bad on the field, and a negative presence off the field, so the Yankees will be happy to see him walk.

Zack Britton, RP, 35:

• the case FOR: None exists unfortunately.
• the case AGAINST: Struggled in 2021, then returned after TJ in 2022 and struggled again. His next chapter is likely elsewhere, on a low salary one year deal, or possibly even a minor league deal as he seeks to prove he can still pitch at a major league level.

My verdict: Britton struggled in 2021(5.89 ERA) before having to undergo TJ surgery near the end of the season. He then returned around a year later(accelerated recovery for a TJ surgery) in an effort to help the team but it was fruitless. He clearly didn’t have it, and couldn’t find the strike zone. That was likely the end of his Yankee tenure, but at least it wasn’t on bad terms.

Chad Green, RP, 31:

• the case FOR: Maybe sign him to a 2 year deal hoping he returns to his former self after TJ?
• the case AGAINST: He will likely miss all of 2023 and may not be himself afterwards.

My verdict: I think he signs a multi year deal somewhere else(Tampa likes taking these sorts of chances for instance). Maybe he signs a minor league deal for this year with the Yankees to rehab in-house. Maybe he signs that same deal elsewhere, or maybe he just takes the year off and looks forward to free agency next year.

Miguel Castro, RP, 28:

• the case FOR: He has good stuff and is hitting the market at a good age
• the case AGAINST: his control is questionable and there are better options already on the Yankees payroll

My verdict: I think it would be in the Yankees best interest to re-sign him if there’s not too much competition for him and they can do it on a reasonable contract. As they say, you can never have too much pitching, the Yankees saw their killer bullpen get depleted by the end of the year and the more capable arms they have, the better it could hold up.

In terms of leaving via trade, I think Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, and to a lesser extent Oswald Peraza are potentially moved away. That’s just my hunch based off rumors and team construction.

5. Looking to Add On(or replace)

The Yankees were outclassed in the ALCS and clearly need to get better if their goal is a championship. Trades can get messy so I’ll just be looking at the names they could look to add in free agency.

Assuming the Yankees want to stay under the 3rd luxury tax threshold, which will be $273M in 2023, they should have $90 million to work with assuming BEFORE re-signing any of their free agents. Let’s assume Judge signs at $45M AAV and Rizzo $16M. That leaves them with around $30M to spend. They could create even more by trading Hicks($40M), Donaldson($65M) or both($75M). I think the Yankees won’t trade a prospect to get rid of Donaldson’s contract, but I’ll put the idea out there anyways.

LF:

The Yankees once again need to look for a LF. Their trade for Gallo didn’t work out, Aaron Hicks has declined already, and Andrew Benintendi is a free agent. Looking at the market, the only upgrade I see is Brandon Nimmo. He is coming off his 3rd straight season with a wRC+ over 130, and 4th in 5 years: he is a proven commodity. He has been playing centerfield for the Mets and improved his defense, but he still isn’t Harrison Bader good, so he’d be playing LF if the Yankees signed him. Now, the Yankees would be competing against other teams offering him to play CF, so he wouldn’t be cheap. He wouldn’t be too under-utilized in Yankees Stadium’s big left field, but MLB teams pay a premium for centerfielders like him. He’s likely looking at an AAV in the 20’s, and the Rockies reported interest in offering him a contract at 5 years worth between $115M–120M($23M–$24M AAV)confirms that. That’s a big price to pay, but again, Nimmo is proven, and if the Yankees are serious about competing, he’s the kind of player you target. Benintendi would be a decent and cheaper backup, but Nimmo is that much better. He’d be the perfect leftfielder and leadoff guy for a Yankees organization that values getting on base(career 13.6 BB%). I would sign him if I were them.

1B:

Anthony Rizzo will likely opt-out, so that’ll give the Yankees a chance to check out the first base market. Josh Bell is the most attractive alternative. He’s a switch hitter who hits better from the left, so they wouldn’t be losing a lefty profile completely. He also walks at a good clip, and being younger and more available than Rizzo could be his selling point. I would prefer to extend Rizzo if I were the Yankees, but Bell is a good secondary option.

SP:

In a world where Josh Donaldson is moved, maybe, just maybe Carlos Rodón is considered by the Yankees. I don’t think it’s likely, but it’s possible. Two of the Yankees rotation pitchers will be free agents after the season in Severino and Montas, and that goes two ways. Either they could pass on a starter in free agency with the idea of extending one or both, or they could decide to sign someone like Rodón this season to have security past the season. While Montas and Severino have question marks, so does Rodón, as he just pitched the most innings of his career in a single-season. The talent has always been there, but the durability has been concerning. If the Yankees are to make a run at him, they’d have to make up their minds quickly, since teams in need of starting pitching will hope this year wasn’t a one-off in terms of availability and just want to lock him up to be their ace. I think he’s unlikely, but not worth ruling out.

The Yankees may also explore trades for a SP, LF, 1B, 3B, SS, C, RP, but I’m not going to get into that.

6. Locking Them Up:

Here are some extension candidates for this team and why they should consider locking them down along with some reasons to hold back:

• SP Luis Severino, 29(FA 2024**if 2023 option is exercised):

2022 was Severino’s first full season since partially tearing his UCL in 2019 and recovering from Tommy John surgery. On the field, it was more of the same Severino the Yankees knew with a 3.18 ERA, 9.9 SO/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.37 SIERA and so on. Numbers that fall in line with his numbers in 2017 and 2018, but without the same quantity. He pitched just 102 innings in 2022, although we should note he was put on the 60 day IL in a move that kept him out mid-September when Severino maintains the injury wasn’t that serious(lat strain). It was likely the Yankees being overly-cautious since they could be, having a strong lead in the AL East at that point, but we don’t know how much was precaution and how much was not trusting him to stay healthy. There would be risk involved in extending him now, but that’s the point. Extending him now would secure him at a lower price because of the risk involved. I’m not sure they do it, given he is on an extension they gave him after the 2018 season and he had TJ during the contract. However, it would be worth at least exploring given his talent and how starting pitchers are snapped up in free agency.

• SP Nestor Cortes, 28(FA 2026):

Nestor Cortes broke-out in a big way in 2021, pitching to a 2.90 ERA in 22 games and 93 innings after starting the year on the Triple-A affiliate. He built on that success in 2022 pitching in 28 games and 158.1 innings with a 2.44 ERA as he made his first All-Star appearance. The Yankees probably aren’t thinking of an extension yet as he’s under team control for a few more years at which point he’d be 31. However, as aforementioned, good starters are a luxury in free agency and Nestor is someone who doesn’t rely on overpowering velocity so he might age well. This is just something the Yankees should keep in mind.

• CF Harrison Bader, 28(FA 2024):

Being from Bronxville, Bader is a local guy, and already a fan favorite despite only making his debut in September(after being traded to the Yankees at the deadline). He hit 5 homers in the Yankees 9 Postseason games, and the fans love his energy and ability to deliver in October already(especially when most of the batters came short). Bader wasn’t even brought in for his bat, it was for his Gold Glove caliber defense at a premium position in centerfield. He has one year of control left, and the Yankees are most likely already thinking of extending him. The case for that is simple: he may be the best CF they’ve ever had defensively, he plays with energy, and he isn’t afraid of the big moments.

• 2B Gleyber Torres, 26(FA 2026):

For as much trade talk as there’s been, and for as much scrutiny as Torres has faced, he just had the best season of his career by bWAR and 2nd best by fWAR. He’s been an All-Star twice already and could easily have won a third nod this season(his numbers at the All-Star break looked very favorable compared to those of Santiago Espinal who won a place over him). I’m not saying you should just discard data, but a look at his wRC+ by month paints an interesting picture.

March/April-94

May-126

June-126

July-134

August-28

September/October-172

As you can tell, one month stands out. It’s not even close to the others, possibly an outlier? That’s up to the Yankees to decide. Torres is a talented second baseman the Yankees and their fans can’t take for granted when talking about dealing him to create room for prospects who aren’t proven at the major league level. He provides good power at a middle infield position, is a legitimately good defender at second base(9 DRS)despite what his reputation may be, and is well liked by fans and teammates alike. Gleyber rebounded well this season after a tough time experimenting at shortstop all of last year. That is especially impressive in New York. I think the Yankees should explore this avenue, because signing him to a reasonable extension wouldn’t even hinder their ability to trade him. Peraza and Volpe both panning out isn’t guaranteed, having Gleyber on a tradable contract would be a good problem to have. Obviously, his demands may be higher than the Yankees see fit, but I do think extending Torres would be worth considering if I were them.

• UTIL Oswaldo Cabrera, 24(FA 2028?):

As one can see, Oswaldo Cabrera isn’t a free agent for a long time. Extending him now would be on a Braves type contract. It isn’t a Yankee thing to do, but I think it would be worth mentioning regardless. Cabrera was a versatile infielder at the minor league level, but came into the majors and almost immediately found himself in right field. He shined defensively, stealing homers and throwing runners out with an arm that Statcast ranks above average for an rightfielder. Then, a few weeks later, Bader came into the mix, pushing Judge back to rightfield, and Cabrera assumed leftfield with ease. Finally, in the Postseason, he went back to the infield and played a few games at shortstop as the Yankees decided to bench Kiner-Falefa. That type of defensive talent and those instincts don’t come around very often. He genuinely fits the Zobrist mold versatility wise. Offensively, he started slow but managed to finish with a 111 wRC+. The thing is, given the high floor his defense and versatility gives him, he doesn’t even need to be the best batter. His 1.5 fWAR and 1.6 bWAR would reach 5 over a full season(500 plate appearances), the level which is categorized as ‘All-Star quality’. He also has room to improve offensively as he likes to lift the ball and adding some weight could give him a few more homers(let’s not forget he plays at Yankee Stadium). He also has room to improve batting as a righty as he is a switch hitter(even more intrigue). I think I’ve made myself clear: Oswaldo Cabrera is special, the Yankees would be wise to go the Braves route and sign him long term to lock him down through a year or two of free agency eligibility.

Conclusion:

To conclude, the Yankees have their work cut out for them this summer after being put in their place by the Astros following a promising regular season. If there’s a decision to be made regarding Cashman’s future, it has to be made quickly so he or whoever serves as GM can handle everything I outlined and more. Their pitching gives them a good floor, and I see them making the playoffs even if Judge walks. It’ll be interesting to see how the Yankees offseason goes down, because they are a few moves from both stepping up to become a true title favorite, or capping themselves as a playoff contender.