A Future Unity: Economic and Geopolitical View

by Zine Labidine Ghebouli

In the time of a world led by powerful nations and political, economic collisions; and during an era that has shed light on the importance of cooperation between independent states especially on the political, economic and security level, it is no secret that at such times, regions such as the Maghreb are most exposed to difficult struggles and undeniable vulnerability due to the current economic and geopolitical challenges that face each country in this region. The Maghreb is a promising region that represents one of the most important parts of propitious continent, Africa; the potentials that the Maghreb has in possession, including its powerful human resources, incredibly strategic place and prodigious area, allow it to take a major part in shaping the future of, not only the continent and Mediterranean area, but also the globe as a prominent player when it comes to the balance of worldwide political powers.

For this region to achieve the high level of involvement that should allow it to play this role, it must face several challenges that include, but not limited to, political, economic and social factors. To better understand these challenges, it is compulsory to analyze the current political and economic situation of the Maghreb along with the main issues related to this North part of the African continent.

It is critical and necessary for any development process that focuses on the Maghreb and especially Algeria to take into consideration several aspects such as the terrorist threats, the political instability, the economic crisis and the popular social demands. It is also imperative to address these aspects before any talk about any sort of economic and political development, that besides any type of unity.

First, since the unfortunate attacks of 9/11 and even before, terrorism has taken many shapes and over many regions throughout the years. Today, it is no longer a matter of the US national security, only, but also the matter of global prosperity and stability especially in the Maghreb and Algeria more specifically. After the fall of the Kadhafi regime in Libya, security in this country and its neighbors became a major concern especially with the rise of the terrorist group of Islamic State that, now, after its defeat in Syria and Iraq, is regrouping itself in Libya putting the whole Maghreb region starting from Tunisia under a massive threat. The Islamic State is not the only terrorist group that its existence threats the region, but this wariness comes also from other groups such as AQIM (al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) that had conducted an attack on a gas plant in Tigentourine situated in Algeria, an attack that had resulted in more than 57 causalities who were employees of different nationalities. The existence of these two groups, one on the east of Tunisia that has even infiltrated many local regions in the Maghreb as several small terrorist groups had pledged allegiance to it, and the other one in the south of Algeria, this south that significantly contributes to the national revenues as Algeria’s economy remains heavily based on the energy industry. Thus, it is essential to take the terrorist threat into consideration when talking about economic and political prosperity of the Maghreb since it could affect the safety feeling that investors should have when conducting business.

Additionally, after the huge protests of the Arab Uprisings that started back in 2011, it became clear that the political stability of the Maghreb has been put into test. It is certainly important, for any kind of unity to be achieved, that this unity will not be jeopardized by a sudden change of power due to political instability or to the existence of dictatorial systems as it is the case with Algeria. In addition to that, it is vital and crucial to achieve a level of political openness where all civic rights are guaranteed and protected by the political institutions. This is a level that is, unfortunately, unavailable due to the type of the regime in Algeria mainly that suffers from a legitimacy crisis especially after four mandates of the current president. It would be extremely difficult, in an environment dominated by a sense of insecurity and threatened human and civil rights, to talk about a sort of unity since this environment is also exposed to a high rate of corruption so this corruption and current political situation would question the legitimacy of this unity, and would put it under a lot of questions that would be addressed to doubt the level of efficiency of this unity. A corrupt political regime that is unable to provide the most basic human and civil rights for its own citizens, it is highly unlikely that it would be able to contribute effectively to this unity; instead, it would jeopardize this unity by its corruption.

Furthermore, it is indisputable that following the 2008 financial crisis, regions with weak economies that are still struggling such as the Maghreb were probably the main victims of the crisis. The Maghreb, despite its potentials both on the human and natural levels, is still grappling while trying to figure out its economic choices; and while a country like Morocco was ranked as the 1st most competitive economy [1] in Africa with an active services sector and some sort of a liberal system, Algeria is always having troubles with its economy that is based on the oil and gas industry making the country’s economic stability impotent and linked to the declining oil prices. The future of the Maghreb’s economy could certainly not go with one country and not the other; thus, it is vital for any economic development to take into consideration the tough situation of some economies such as the Algerian one. Algeria, today, being the largest African country, and a key player in any future unity of the Maghreb, is having troubling time while it is in the middle of an economic and financial crisis that led the government to opt for a new expansionary monetary policy to face the local debts and the declining of its foreign exchange reserves [2].

Finally, every talk about a Maghreb’s economic and political unity must consider the social demands such as job opportunities and housing that have been raised by the population of this region. The Maghreb is surely living a tough situation especially after the Arab Uprisings that resulted in the departure of the Ben Ali regime and the wave of economic, political and social reforms [3] that have been started by the Algerian president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, shortly after the protests lasting from 28 December 2010 to early 2012. The Maghreb unity should mainly be addressed as a suggested solution to respond to the problems that gangrene this region’s societies, that means addressing these social demands may be the hardest step towards any sort of unity; and talking about this unity brings us to talk about the social situation it will face. Any initiative to negotiate the possibility, and if so the terms of this unity will be put at stake if such negotiations do not include the common effort of trying to address the nations’ demands as a top priority. Going into this unity without the willingness to make it a useful bridge to solve this region’s social problems will evidently cause everything to fall apart.

These few aspects give us a clearer idea about the achievable sort of unity that political powers, including political parties and civic society, should be aiming at. The Maghreb, especially Algeria, is crossing this period with, obviously, many problems and issues but also with much capabilities and ways to avoid the unpleasant consequences that are awaiting.

It is quite difficult to determine the exact form of unity that is possible between the countries of the Maghreb region; however, when taking the aspects discussed earlier into account, it becomes much easier to imagine the future of this region and to even suggest some possible solutions to the current tough situation.

On the economic level, the mistakes that had been made throughout the past decades are the lack of vision and the use of natural resources (as it is the Algerian case with the oil and gas industry) to create and even buy a sort of social peace and to even stay in power, in addition of course to the terrible bureaucracy that closes the doors in front of any foreign investors and the same superficial solutions for an economic system that had proved its failure over time without a real political will to perform in-depth analysis and even structural reforms.

Since the economic vision cannot be unrelated to the political situation, the crisis of legitimacy and the turbulent political situation in the Maghreb created a sort of a political instability associated with security risks that both affected the economy of the region and made it harder to attract investment, especially the foreign one, leaving the Maghreb economy without any solid bases. This political instability and the ambiguity of the future of the region affect the economy in a way where the current political crisis is a priority to talk about before any other plans to develop the region. The biggest political mistake had been the willingness of some political regimes to stay in power no matter what are the risks and the consequences; the Maghreb had lost decades because of the mismanagement of resources and the behavior of political systems represented by the old politicians who were ready to do everything in their power to remain as the rulers of their countries, sometimes even at the expense of human rights, freedom of expression, freedom of political disagreements and basic civil rights. For us to discuss the Maghreb unity, we must first, and urgently, address such political issues and work to provide a safe environment of critic, freedom of expression and in which a citizen could be free to disagree without fearing the power and the punishment of the rulers.

The future of the Maghreb, especially Algeria, and its unity is related to the ability of this region to opt for structural economic reforms and its capability of regaining the political legitimacy that is based on people’s choices. This is the only way through which this region is going to get out of its economic decline and political impasse towards an economic unity.

When it comes to the economy, the diversification of this sector and an open-door policy for the private sector to be able to refresh the public one and give a new shape for the economic system are pivotal steps. Till now, and mainly for Algeria, the private sector still finds it difficult and frustrating to finds its way into the market, especially when it comes to the telecommunication and services sector. Apart from the oil and gas industry (and to a certain extent regarding this last industry), most markets are controlled and even dominated by public firms while any other private investors are faced with bureaucratic measures that are meant to tighten the markets and give little, or sometimes zero, chances to the private sector, especially the one brought up by foreign investors. It is about time for the Maghreb region to finally understand that the private sector is not a monster as politicians usually describe it, and globalization is not the end of national sovereignty but mostly an adaptation to world’s open economic trade policies. It is no longer feasible to play on people’s emotions using some populist discourses and it will be much more beneficial and efficient to let the private sector work in peace to create a market’s concurrence and to provide the people with more choices, and to help lifting the economy. The Maghreb, for its economic unity to be achieved, is in a desperate need for the involvement of the private investor, in the form of entrepreneurial projects and small businesses, who could give certain cards that would come out as handy tools when trying to diversify the economy. The human resources are far more important than the natural ones, and with a huge percentage of the youth over the Maghreb region, a process of development and investment in the human power is pretty much needed more than ever. These human resources are the perfect base of every powerful unity based on production.

The economy is not the only concern when speaking about the future of the Maghreb since this region is also facing political struggles. It is vital to provide the region with a new political environment represented by new politicians, new figures and new political mechanisms for us to start talking about prosperity and unity. The political crisis is mainly a result of legitimacy crisis; thus, the reestablishment of confidence between citizens and political institutions is the first step to be taken through transparent elections that give the citizens the opportunity to freely choose their representatives. The unity cannot be achieved with people who have no legitimacy to represent their citizens nor to speak in the name of their countries, and any unity that is negotiated through such a process will be rejected by the people. It is important, for us to imagine a new Maghreb, to start with a political openness and freedom that shall not be jeopardized by the military powers. For such an openness and freedom to be available, a transition phase in such countries like Algeria is a must; a transition phase that allow people to launch a national debate on important matters such as freedom of expression, freedom of religion, human rights and representative democracy. The unity could be easy to achieve once there are legitimate political powers with no involvement of the old political figures. It is also important to remember that those who were part of the problem and the crisis at a certain point could not be part of any solution. A stable political situation is a necessity for an economic unity.

The Maghreb has certainly all what it takes to start a new fresh page of economic cooperation that put the tremendous human resources into work. This region could achieve phenomenal results if two points are being worked on; first, a new diverse and dynamic economic model that is based on human creativity and human production and not so desperately on some natural resources; second, a political representation that gives the chance to new figures to regain the lost legitimacy and that provides the public with a safe environment where freedom of expression matters and human rights are sacred, protected and guaranteed.

[1] The World Economic Forum

[2] El-Tablawy, T., & Slimani, S. (2017, September 17). Algeria to Lean on Central Bank to Plug Deficit Amid Oil Slump. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-17/algeria-to-lean-on-central-bank-to-plug-deficit-amid-oil-slump

[3] Aljazeera News