POLITICS
LGBT Adults Remain Hopeful for the Future of LGBT People in the US
Despite recent setbacks, new evidence shows optimism for the country
This entry is co-authored with PRRI Public Fellows: Kelsy Burke, Suzanna Krivulskaya, and Joanna Wuest.
The Biden administration recently introduced new rules aimed at protecting LGBTQ+ people under existing Title IX law. The policy was quickly challenged by conservatives, suggesting that development in LGBT politics and policy is a mixed bag: with notable advances and significant regressions.
To this point, the past several years have seen a tremendous increase in anti-transgender and anti-gay legislation, rhetoric, and violence. Research shows that LGBT people are 9 times more likely to be victims of hate-motivated violence. And, two public opinion surveys conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) have also shown a recent decline in support for some transgender civil rights and LGBT rights more broadly.
What have these trends meant for how LGBT adults respond to current politics?
Perhaps surprisingly, we find LGBT adults in the U.S. think that society has become more accepting of LGBT people and will become even more accepting in the future.
To discover this, we fielded an online survey in the summer of 2023 to 1,225 LGBT adults living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. While not representative of all LGBT Americans, our findings provide a useful snapshot for understanding the state of LGBTQ+ equality in the United States from the perspective of LGBT people themselves.
What we discovered from the survey will open some eyes.
To start, a majority of respondents believe that social acceptance of LGBT people has gotten better over the last decade. Not surprisingly, this view extends more to LGB individuals than to transgender and nonbinary individuals. Yet even if respondents’ perception of positive change is only slight, the majority view the past decade as an improvement in the acceptance of LGBT people in society.
Viewed from the perspective of ongoing assaults on LGBTQ+ rights, these findings may seem surprising.
However, the past decade has been a period of remarkable civil rights victories as well. The Supreme Court has made marriage equality the law of the land and extended federal anti-discrimination protections to gay and transgender employees.
And, while conservative lawmakers have blanketed nearly half the country in laws that limit gender-affirming care access for transgender individuals, moderate and liberal state legislatures have increasingly protected LGBTQ+ youth from dangerously outdated so-called “conversion therapy” practices. In just the past two years, fifteen states have passed “shield” laws that protect transgender people and their medical providers who reside in states that now ban potentially life-saving gender-affirming care.
These may be the reasons LGBT adults remain hopeful about the future.
Over three-quarters think that society will become more accepting, though most predict marginal improvements as opposed to massive shifts. Although very few LGBT adults have a pessimistic prognosis, more of them believe that cisgender sexual minorities will enjoy greater acceptance than transgender or nonbinary people.
With the 2024 presidential election underway, a Supreme Court that appears to be willing to diminish LGBTQ+ individuals’ rights, and multiple states passing anti-LGBTQ+ legislation, there is ample reason to think that LGBT people would feel pessimistic about the future.
However, our findings indicate just the opposite: they feel hopeful about future acceptance. This aligns with the findings of a 2023 PRRI survey that showed that many Americans remain supportive of LGBT rights and of including LGBT topics in public education curricula, despite a general decline in support for LGBTQ+ rights.
There are plenty of historical precedents for these feelings of hopefulness amidst adversity. In the early 1990s, conservative lawmakers in states like Oregon and Colorado sought to outlaw local anti-discrimination ordinances. The era’s conservative politicians frequently denigrated such civil rights protections as “special rights.” Although Colorado briefly succeeded in banning city laws that protected queer people from discriminatory landlords and bosses, queer advocates quickly transformed this local defeat into a nationwide victory.
In 1996, the Supreme Court issued a sweeping ruling that prohibited all states–not just Colorado–from acting out of pure “animus” for a hated minority group. That decision, which came during a dark episode in LGBTQ+ history, became central to future civil rights wins.
The simultaneous push and pull between LGBT support and antagonism is a well-worn American path. Any story that highlights one side but not the other misses a holistic account of queer and gender-nonconforming life in the United States. LGBT people recognize the challenges and obstacles they face. They also believe that greater acceptance is possible in the future.
