EDUCATION
Moms for Liberty’s growth slows again this year
New county chapter data shows mixed signs for the organization’s power
At this weekend’s Joyful Warriors Summit ’24, Tiffany Justice, the head of Moms for Liberty, the organization founded in 2021, endorsed Donald Trump for president. This was not much of a surprise for an event that also featured Tulsi Gabbard, Glen Beck, and Sebastian Gorka.
What Trump had to say at the education summit also wasn’t that surprising. Trump has never had much to share about education, but his comments this weekend were what you might expect. “Some of these people on the boards, I think they don’t like the kids very much … you have to give the rights back to the parents,” Trump said to the audience. The remainder of his comments were drawn from his well-worn playbook.
Trump’s appearance suggests Moms for Liberty is a player in conservative politics, but that position is far from clear after the organization won just 40% of school board elections in which it had made an endorsement.
Last year, I wrote about the slowing growth of Moms for Liberty. At that point, the organization claimed to have a chapter in 280 counties in the country, up 50% from 152 counties 2021. This was pretty remarkable growth for a group that had just been launched. It received the notable plaudits from conservatives and attention from the media as a rising center of civic power in the Republican Party.
Trump’s appearance at the summit is a testament to that perception that Moms for Liberty remains a force. A question remains, is it?
Based on information shared by the organization at its website, it does continue to grow. As of August, Moms for Liberty had a chapter in 317 counties, meaning approximately 1 out of every 10 counties in the country has a chapter operation in some fashion.
The growth, however, has slowed considerably. Compared to the 15% annual growth it could claim between 2022 and 2023, this year the annual growth is down to 12%.
The last time I looked at these numbers, I focused in on Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, three states that remain central to the 2024 presidential campaign. At that point, all three states had fewer chapters in 2023 than in 2021. Moms for Liberty prominence in key states was waning at that point.
A year later, the numbers look a little different.
In Arizona, Moms for Liberty had three chapters, up one from last year. Pinal county formed a chapter and Maricopa county re-formed a chapter that was not operations in 2023.
In Georgia, Moms for Liberty has grown substantially. Nine counties have a chapter today, compared to just two a year ago.
In Nevada, last year, there were no Moms for Liberty chapters. Since, then, a chapter has formed in Clark county.
In these key states, this suggests Moms for Liberty remains a presence, but hardly a rising source of political power.
If we zoom out a little bit, and add a couple of additional 2024 swing states, we can get a better handle on where the organization’s power resides. Similar to these other three states, it is a mixed bag for Moms for Liberty.
In the Midwest, Trump and Harris are closely tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, two important states for 2024. In Michigan, Moms for Liberty is down two counties over the last year, from 12 to 10. In Wisconsin, on the other hand, it is up three counties, from 11 in 2023 to 14 today.
Outside the Midwest, no state seems as critical as Pennsylvania. In that key state, Moms for Liberty claimed a chapter in 27 counties last year, but is down to 24 this year. Conversely, in North Carolina, another important state, it’s grown to four chapters, up from 18 to 22.
The chapter numbers don’t tell the whole story. The organization doesn’t share membership data, so it is hard to tell whether these chapters are large or small. Nevertheless, the numbers suggest an organization that remains active across the country, but that isn’t growing as quickly as it had a year ago.
Moms for Liberty have often been compared to the conservative Tea Party. They share views on many issues. The Tea Party grew dramatically in 2010 and became a political force in several elections. It also declined quickly and chapters closed across the country. Moms for Liberty’s future isn’t clear now, but it may be heading in that same direction: a political movement that grew rapidly, then declined just as fast.
