Politics and Election 2024
Senator Joe Manchin’s Independence Day
Two possibilities and a way to think about how they might matter
Friday morning in West Virginia kicked off with a bang as Senator Joe Manchin, a darling of progressives everywhere, announced he would leave the Democratic Party and register as an independent. This is significant because it keeps the Senator’s options open as fall’s general election looms in West Virginia and elsewhere. Friday was the last day to register as an independent for a possible run in the fall. He must garner the necessary signatures (1 percent of the eligible electorate) by August 1st. CNN reports this to be about 8k signatures.
That means everyone has two months to complain and pontificate about what Manchin will do. I often repeat to reporters that anyone professing to know what our Senator will do in advance is fibbing, blissfully ignorant, and certainly not a reliable source. To that point, I’ll eschew predictions here, outline a couple of possibilities, and address how these introduce uncertainty in understanding the general election in the fall.
Scenario One: Manchin is NOT Running
The Senator has not openly expressed an interest in running in the general election for Senator or Governor (realistically, the only two he’d conceivably eye). He has openly expressed support for democratic candidates in both races and has given no reason to suggest he’s not sincere. If he is not running, then registering as an independent is a prelude to whatever career lies beyond the veil of politics for the Senator.
Love or loathe him, Senator Manchin is not one for being idle, so it seems a stretch to expect him to pass quietly into the night for retirement. He himself has hinted at publicly engaged work along several dimensions in visits to the state — including using goodwill among colleagues and partners to further bipartisanship here and elsewhere. Others have speculated he may be eyeing being a university president or taking some other public-facing office relevant to politics and governance in the region or nationally.
Regardless of the path this scenario leads to, being a registered independent has advantages. West Virginia is as polarized as the rest of America. Media consolidation and the leaking of national narratives into local politics in Appalachia means partisan labels are less useful in contexts where one’s aims are issue-specific or, alternatively, where one leads a public organization that must be responsive and collegial with both major parties. It's hard, for instance, to be a warrior for deal-making and bipartisanship with a party label by your name. Similarly, no leader of a large public institution will fare well placating one side at the expense of another.
Scenario Two: Manchin IS Running
Of course, the juicier of the two scenarios is that Manchin will run for office. Speculation falls on the U.S. Senate race (Manchin’s current seat) and the governor’s race.
The race for Senate between sitting Governor Jim Justice and Wheeling Mayor and former aid to Sen. Robert Byrd Glenn Elliot seems less likely because it's the race Manchin chose to pass on earlier in the year and has publicly endorsed Elliot. In addition, Justice is a popular governor despite being beset by business and administrative failures, winning the primary election with almost 62 percent of the vote. Justice has also had the backing of the RNC brass from the beginning and Donald Trump's endorsement in a state that Trump won +40 in 2020. The governor, and most other Republicans, will benefit from Trump's tailwind in turnout.
The race for governor pits Attorney General Patrick Morrissey against Mayor of Huntington Steve Williams. Morrissey’s campaign and record reflect the successful retrenchment of federal policy fought out in the judiciary. The most important was West Virginia v. EPA, which limited the EPA’s options for regulating greenhouse gas emissions. Others address whether states can use federal relief and recovery funds to backfill tax cuts unilaterally.
The Republican primary between Morrissey and Moore Capito (son of sitting Sen. Shelley Moore Capito) was a close contest, with Morrissey winning by about 5 percent. Many believed Capito may have had momentum down the stretch with a (maybe too late) endorsement from Gov. Justice. Morrissey’s base was solid throughout the race at about a third of the Republican vote. Still, some are concerned that that base of support did not expand over the course of the election. Morrissey ran for the Senate against Manchin in 2018 and lost by 3 percent.
On the other hand, Steve Williams has built his success and reputation on turning around the City of Huntington with a brand of politics that Bill Clinton would know well—a laser focus on the economy and economic development combined with a laissez-faire attitude towards social issues. Williams’ challenge is getting the rest of the state well-acquainted with his name and brand and weathering the blistering campaign Morrissey will mount with substantial financial advantages and get his economic message and improvements in health and education to the fore.
Now What?
Looking at the two, IF Manchin were to run, the governor’s race is the lower hanging of the fruits. Morrissey is a known quantity in Manchin’s circles. Moreover, only Gov. Justice and Senator Capito have stardom comparable to Manchin inside and outside the state. Questioning what a Manchin candidacy would mean for the general election outcomes here is human nature. The horse race still sells papers, or “content,” these days.
In some sense, this pontificating about the election outcomes could miss the major implication of a Manchin candidacy. For one, his candidacy introduces much uncertainty about how an independent would fare in the election. How the general public will react to a candidate taking up so much air smack in the center of the voter distribution while simultaneously facing the headwinds of polarization, the saturation of national narratives locally, and a sharp conservative turn in the state is anyone’s guess. However, another implication is much more certain and is largely absent in most coverage of Manchin’s potential independent candidacy — how his candidacy could influence national outcomes.
Undoubtedly, RNC and DNC resources will be reshuffled depending on whether Manchin is in or out. For both parties, a Manchin candidacy means far more resources need to be spent in the state, less so without him. Why is that important? Those resources would preferably be spent in other battleground states like PA, WI, MT, MI, and AZ.
In other words, a Manchin candidacy will have spillover effects financially in other Senate or Governor races that remain or are suspected to be tight. Given his record and skill, Williams has not received the DNC attention that his candidacy probably deserves. Republicans, on the other hand, probably hoped to coast to victory and shift resources to these other states given the opportunities they present for Republican control of the Senate.
For Manchin’s part, he is a master of reading the tea leaves and knowing where the wave of sentiment is going before it's there. His lodestar, as always, is sentiment here in the state and Appalachia broadly. Running or not running will depend on where he sees that sentiment, not broader elite perspectives or concern for what it means for the two parties. That is as true in a career adjacent to public office or deep in its depths. No one familiar with the Senator will be surprised if there are more pivots between now and August 1st as he continues to ride the wave.
