Bitcoin Weekly Update #1
By 4C Trading - 16/09/2019 :
This analysis is intended for swing traders or medium-term investors. As a reminder, swing trading is a strategy of speculation in financial markets where an asset is held only for a few days to take advantage of price fluctuations. In this analysis, which you will find every week, I will detail my vision of the market and more specifically the one of Bitcoin. In addition to a technical analysis, I will summarize 3/4 of the news that impacted the market.
Bitcoin which chartist configuration?
For a few weeks now Bitcoin has been evolving in a rather limited price zone. We were initially in a descending channel and as we went along the chartist configuration leads us to a symmetrical triangle.
Some people on Twitter will tell you that we are in the presence of a descending triangle — like the one we experienced during the bear market, with $6000 as our main support. However, in my opinion, they are making a mistake. Indeed, the descending triangle configuration (bearish configuration: aka you expect a decrease) generally only applies when the trend is bearish ! However, since April 2019, Bitcoin has been out of its bear market. So I can’t privilege the descending triangle configuration.
Bitcoin seems to be in a symmetrical triangle configuration. This is a figure of indecision where the two “symmetrical” lines reflect the two forces present: buyers and sellers. We can therefore talk about a phase of balance between the two forces. During this phase, liquidity “accumulates”. Thus, the exit of this symmetrical triangle configuration will be accompanied by a large movement.
Note that the exit of this type of configuration during a bullish trend is at 63% bullish.
When will this happen? No one knows, it may be due to an extremely bullish/bearish news or simply to the increase of one of the two opposing forces. From the elements we have, we can estimate (to be taken with some caution) a continuation of the range in this symmetrical triangle until November 2019.
On the associated graph, I have highlighted “important” price areas of support and resistance. The latter will be particularly useful for people who “day-trade”.
So stay careful and if you trade, never forget to put your stop-loss on! If next week the situation remains similar, I will carry out a Bitcoin analysis on a smaller timeframe.
NB: If you are not familiar with all the terms mentioned in this analysis, I invite you to switch to the 4C-trading Youtube channel as well as to our blog!
Graphic :
News :
CME to double monthly Bitcoin futures position limit :
In a recent proposal by CME, the exchange will double the position limit for Bitcoin futures from 1000 contracts to 2000 contracts. Moreover, the change is expected to happen on September 30th, 2019.
France to tax crypto cash out :
Bloomberg recently reported that the French economy minister, Bruno Le Maire will tax crypto when they are cashed out into fiat. However, he also said that crypto-to-crypto trading will be free of tax.
Binance launches futures trading platform :
Binance has announced that the company will launch 2 new platforms specializing in futures trading. The first platform is Binance Futures and it’s available on the Binance site. The second platform is Binance Jex and it is an independent futures trading platform. Moreover, for users who have voted for Binance Futures, there are reward activities from Binance.
Nico, analyst at 4C-trading.
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