Bitcoin Weekly Update #14
By 4C Trading — 16/12/2019 :
This analysis is intended for swing traders or medium-term investors. As a reminder, swing trading is a strategy of speculation in financial markets where an asset is held only for a few days to take advantage of price fluctuations. In this analysis, which you will find every week, I will detail my vision of the market and more specifically the one of Bitcoin. In addition to a technical analysis, I will summarize 3/4 of the news that impacted the market.
Happy birthday Bitcoin !
Exactly one year ago to the day, Bitcoin reached its lowest value at around $3,100. What was your state of mind at the time? Bullish or bearish? And currently what is your long-term investment strategy for Bitcoin?
Don’t worry, if you can’t answer this question, I will try through this analysis to give you some ideas to help you make up your mind.
First of all, let’s look at how the Bitcoin behaves in December. As you can see on the graph below, on which I have indicated by light green rectangles the period of December since 2016, we can see that Bitcoin generally follows the same pattern: a slight increase, then a more or less significant decrease towards the end of December/early January. This is perfectly in line with my analysis of Bitcoin Weekly Update #13.
As a reminder here is what I expect: an increase to 8520$ and/or 9150$ before going lower, ideally to 5800$/6000$ which corresponds to an important liquidity zone and future support zone of the 200MA in weekly.
Possible scenarios in daily periods:
- Main resistance: 7900$, in case of confirmed break ( full candle), we could see a bullish pursuit up to 8520$ and/or 9150$ before seeing a fall if the conditions to go long above are not confirmed.
- Main support: 6890$, in case of confirmed breakage (full candle), we will have a downward continuation, with as next potential support the 6000$ and/or 5800$.
Then, it will be necessary to monitor that the following conditions are confirmed to place a big buy order: bullish crossing of the MACD, Fear and Greed Index very low and a nice volume recovery.
It should be noted that past performance does not prejudge future performance. This seasonality analysis for Bitcoin confirms my analysis but alone it is of no interest.
If we look at Bitcoin on a daily time-frame, we see that on the Bitcoin CME futures market, a new gap has been created this weekend and it would therefore not be surprising if there were a slight increase to fill it. If you are new to the analysis of gaps in the future Bitcoin market, I invite you to read my article on this subject.
If you are interested in having daily analyses of Bitcoin, do not hesitate to go to the 4C-trading website, you will discover the full scope of our offer! (Trading Bots, trading signals, daily analyses etc…)
Finally, here is a graph that intrigued me this week: the number of #Bitcoin interactions on Twitter. If you are involved in the Blockchain and in the crypotocurrency market in general, you are aware that people’s favorite social network in these fields is Twitter. The fact that the number of interactions is at its lowest could mean a lack of general interest.
However, as you know so well, the best time to invest in an asset is not when everyone is talking about it (hmm hmm December 2017 when the Bitcoin was making the headlines) but rather when everyone forgets it because it is in a phase of accumulation without real fluctuation. So, if you have done your own research on Bitcoin (DYOR), if you believe in technology and if you are thinking of investing for the long term, consider this graph. Personally, this strengthens me in my bias as a long-term bullish investor.
Don’t forget your stop-loss and adopt rigorous risk management. This is a trading plan and not a prediction. Invest only what you can afford to lose.
I hope you enjoyed this analysis and that the Bitcoin will finally wake up, I wish you an excellent week.
News :
- NYDFS updates crypto guidance : According to the press release, NYDFS is moving toward a new stage which helps the token listing process. The first proposal is NYDFS will provide a website that provides a list of coins which is allowed to be listed. The second proposal creates a framework which can be carried out to create a specific coin listing or adoption policy.
- IRS & Crypto : The IRS, U.S. Internal Revenue Service, has finished and put in use the latest tax form that will require crypto owners to declare all their crypto-activities : if they received, bought, sold, exchanged, or acquired any cryptocurrencies during the last year.
- ING & digital assets custody : The Dutch bank : ING would be in the process of developing a technology in order to help their clients to store safely any digital assets. As it was reported, the project of custody is still in an early stage and it would be one of the bank’s several several initiatives around blockchain
- Fidelity Digital assets to support Ethereum in 2020 : In one of the latest episode of the Scoop, Tom Jessop, actual president of Fidelity Digital Assets, has declared having “done a lot of work on Ethereum” when asked if they would soon offer custody for the digital assets. As a reminder, Fidelity Digital Assets was launched at the beginning of 2019. It offers cryptocurrency custody and trading tools for institutional investors and traders.
Nico, analyst at 4C-trading.
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