Put your money where your mouth is

Prior to the start of the play-in round, I threw my predictions out there on what we might expect. Let’s throw a little cold water on my hot takes and see how I fared.

A decrease in fighting

As is obvious, I predicted a decrease if not disappearance. Given the opening match of the play-in took only minutes before seeing it’s first bout (between two hardly known for their pugilistic tendencies to boot), I was clearly in for a rough ride.

The result? D.O.A. Fights have increased by 3 fold, as of Aug 8th. Ouch.

Upsets early…

Alright, now we’re talking! Forecasting a bit of chaos, awhopping 50% of the qualifying rounds resulted in the lower seed winning. I’m feeling a lot better.

Bonus fuzzies: my suspicion was on point: 3.5 of the 4 teams (Montreal, Columbus, and Chicago) all relied on far more sound defensive play to stifle their far more offensive opponents. In the 4th, Arizona bested Nashville, a team with a notoriously exceptional defense, by simply playing Nashville’s game even better than they (plus Darcy Kuemper).

… favourites later

Clearly TBD, but I don’t forecast more than a pair of upsets in this round. Particularly vulnerable-looking are the Blues and Bruins but I can’t see those two giants not waking up really quickly now that the games really matter (oh, but those Canes…).

The best chances for an upset are out East. The criminally disrespected Canes, Jackets, and Isles. I don’t consider Calgary to be much of an underdog to Dallas, despite the math.

The ‘hot goalie’ wildcard is the most valuable card in the deck

Hardly an ‘outside the box’ playoff prediction, but boy oh boy did I nail this one. Kuemper, Carey Price, Corey Crawford, and the two-headed monsters from Carolina and Columbus certainly proved such. Ego: significantly inflated.

A recipe for injury

Like the favourites dominating later on, this one still isn’t over but I am quite content being wrong so far. Not many significant injuries were reported, let alone virus-related incidents. I’ll chalk this one up to ‘winning by losing.’

Quick hits (read: non-issues)

• Tanking? Bull’s eye! 4/8 upsets!
• Ice quality? Bull’s eye! No complaints so far!
• Mic-ed up players/coaches? N/A. We haven’t been privy to much of such
• Betting lines? Wide Right! The risk-loving made out like bandits

My pick?

Far too early to judge. Let’s see if the Caps and Blues last until October, with a nod towards the Bruins being the Eastern rep.

None look great so far but Holtby’s play has been trending up. They’ll need that trend to continue for my self-congratulating to do likewise. Vegas looks like world-beaters, determined to atone for close calls in recent years, and Philly have looked really good. Tampa is also going to be uber-motivated, perhaps enough so to match their uber-talent.

It’s gonna be a tough, but fun ride.