5: Compression
So, I ended up playing Final Fantasy 7 Remake for three hours, and now it’s 3:30 in the morning. Mistakes were made. Still, I should get some kudos for sticking to my new system and cranking out a blog post for today. I didn’t skip, which is a win in my book.
I spent much of the day thinking about the impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus on various industries that I’m interested in. Take comic books, for instance. The sole distributor of comic books, Diamond, is currently halting all shipments to comic stores. This is somewhat good, because comic stores are not essential and many are closed due to various state orders. But this means there are no comics going out the door.
If you’re familiar with comics, you might be wondering why Marvel, DC, and the rest don’t simply release their issues digitally. They could, but the problem is twofold. One, digital is a small chunk of overall comic sales, and two, comics stores would pitch a fit. The thought is that would accelerate a consumer shift toward digital, which would shut physical stores out and send them the way of music stores.
I think that worry is overblown, but a question does remain: if you move forward with digital sales while stores are shut down, what happens to the the issues released in that gap? Let’s say the shutdown lasts another two months. The last issue of Batman was #90, and Batman #92 was supposed to release last week. So is we fast-forward to June, that’s four issues available on digital. Stores reopen, but what happens to all those issues that saw digital releases?
Do you release them all at once? That’s going to lead to a backup of product at every store. Staggering the release schedule is slightly better, but again, you’re still sending a much higher volume of comics to stores than they’re use to. It’s going to be hard to front-face those comics.
Worse, there is something to the assumption that the average reader might just buy those Batman issues on digital and have read them already. Your hardcore customers will buy the floppies regardless, but the casual Wednesday folk? That’s potentially a lost sale.
And that’s just for comics. Movies are even worse, because while distribution is shut down for comics, production can still happen. Most comic creators already work from home, and are able to continue doing what they do. With film, not only are movie theaters shut down, but movie sets are shuttered to protect workers. Pretty much every major film and television show that was in production when this all started is on hiatus. So, there’s a gap.
And even once movie theaters are open again, turnout will be down. Who wants to catch a virus trying to watch a movie? And that’s before you get to any congregation rules for theaters reopening, like leaving seats open for social distancing or having maximum audience caps. So there’s going to be a period of ramping up in terms of box office.
With that in mind, the biggest studios aren’t going to want their best stuff to release right when things reopen. If you have a potential billion dollar winner like Wonder Woman 1984, a depressed box office could see you making much less. Releasing WW84 to $500 million at the box office might be profitable and act as a wonderful release valve to all this, but it doesn’t feel like a win. So movie studios are playing chicken with when this all ends, and when they can expect the audience to head back to the movies in large enough numbers.
And you still have the same problem that comic stores have in trying to fit all the movies planned from April to whenever this ends into a much tighter schedule. If this lasts until July or August, there’s simply not enough space in the rest of the year for all those films. Some have already been pushed back to 2021, while others will go to streaming.
Basically the coronavirus is speeding up a number of industry transitions and while it’s horrifying, it’s also endless fodder for thoughts.
Oops. Nearly 700 words. Sorry.
