Black swan in software development
“We tend to treat our knowledge as personal property to be protected and defended. It is an ornament that allows us to rise in the pecking order…we take what we know a little too seriously.” — N.N. Taleb Black Swan
Software development characterizes unique unstable context “here & now”. It is very hard to predict how this context will develop in near future. Fact that we have to deal with “unknown” in software development build opportunity for the unforeseen events with a big (negative) impact. I would like to borrow Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s vocabulary and call them as “black swan” events. The black swan theory is a metaphor used to describe an event that comes as a surprise and has major consequences.
Let me explain how I understand “black swan” in software development context.
„Continues improvement”evokes the narration (linearity) of instant “progress” in particular area — that we are better and better at what we do. I see the idea behind the continues improvement: if we cumulate enough knowledge then we will be better prepared for the future’s “black swans”. “Lesson learned” is then simplistic explanations for rare and unpredictable events retrospectively and provides an illusion that we are able to conquer an uncertainty.
I don’t believe that our knowledge is cumulative and linear even if you drawn it as a circle. My experience tells me that, yes, we are learning but, it is fair to admit, at the same time we also forget something. We don’t gather knowledge progressively but rather unconsciously and abruptly. Very often new knowledge is “useless” for future because is related to unique context: you will not apply this knowledge to another unique context — you have to figure out new approach how to deal with the new situation.
Scrum is a framework based on empiricism which teaches us not how to deal with “black swan” but how to live in the world with high unpredictability. There are a lot of correlations between scrum framework and Taleb’s black swan: now, I want to focus on sprint retrospective.
What is the primary purpose of sprint retrospective in the light of black swan theory? In my opinion, it is an opportunity for team members synchronize each other how situation “here & now” looks like and then with the common picture in the head, figure out how to adapt development process to this unique context and define actions necessary for this adaptation. On the contrary to continues improvement, the primary goal is not to be “better” but adequate to the context; it is not to “improve” (in relation to what?) but adjust to the new situation.
Meeting with a black swan-type events in software development is inevitable. Sprint retrospective is not only one instrument of scrum framework which allows us to embrace change and treat black swan as an opportunity.
