Josh Reddick and Fearing the Left-Handed Pitcher
Josh Reddick is a good outfielder. He made his nut in Oakland where he hit 32 HR in 2012 after being traded away from Boston. He’s accumulated 15.9 career fWAR, and slashes a career .255/.316/.430.
I don’t think I’d say Josh Reddick is worth the $13 million per year the Astros will pay him through 2020, but he’s a decent left-handed bat with plus-power and isn’t a liability in the outfield.
The reason Josh Reddick isn’t worth 13 million dollars is because he can barely hit lefties. Looking at the table below, we see his career average dip a precipitous 52 points. Reddick also strikes out at a rate three percent higher, and his wOBA takes a 55-point dip.
Taking a look at his contact profile, Reddick is pretty consistent against both matchups. This is probably what makes him a good hitter, but the fact that he can’t seem to read lefties is concerning. His BB% also takes a huge fall against left-handed pitching, dropping from 9.60% to 6.7%.
If we look at his swing rate in 2016 against both matchups, we notice how much more erratic Reddick is when facing a same-side pitcher:
Against righties, his swing rate is consistent with high rates high and inside and low rates outside the zone. Looking at the other matchup, the consistency is lost and it looks like Reddick is waving a pool noodle around the zone; high rates at the corners of the strike zone and no observable “sweet spot”. He still swings at the high inside pitches like always, but that tendency isn’t concentrated.
Let’s look at the change in called strikes:
Notice the difference? The called strikes are concentrated to the middle of the zone as he faces a favorable matchup; not abnormal, seeing as these are probably first-pitch fastball takes or patience on curveballs. Now looking at the non-favorable matchups, he’s taking strikes everywhere in the zone. This shows a lack of confidence in reading pitches out of left-handed pitchers hands.
So, we can agree that Reddick needs a change…but is he a lost cause, or a another lefty who just has some trouble against left-handed pitchers?
There are some players who show an observable improvement against same-side matchups; Didi Gregorius, Michael Saunders, Ender Inciarte, Mark Trumbo, and Justin Turner are a few. But let’s ignore them and look at someone Reddick can try to emulate: Freddie Freeman.
Freddie Freeman is an elite player. He’s one of the best hitters in the game, he’s consistent, and he gets payed like it. Freddie Freeman does everything a little (to a lot) better than Josh Reddick, and 2016 was a career year for the Braves first baseman.
Freeman performs really well against both matchups on the mound. His averages are similar, his wOBA is similar, BABIP is similar. His K% takes a hike against lefties, even higher than Reddick, and his walk rate dips too. But Freeman stays smart and confident at the plate against both kinds of pitchers, which leads to success.
Here are Freeman’s swing rates against both matchups:
Unlike Reddick, we see a mostly similar swing rate map. Freeman’s outside the zone swing% doesn’t tick up dramatically and his concentration toward the dead-center of the zone expands only fractionally against same-side matchups.
Called strikes:
His called strike rate barely changes as well, both concentrated in the middle.
The purpose of this comparison is not to try and prove why Josh Reddick is a worse player than Freddie Freeman. We can all agree that if you had the option to give twenty million dollars to one or the other, you’d give it to Freeman ten times out of ten.
What this comparison does prove though, is that it isn’t impossible for Reddick to improve his shortcomings against lefties to better benefit his new team. He needs to work on seeing pitches better out of same-side hands and maintain his swing discipline no matter who he’s facing. All things that could be corrected with coaching and practice.
