First of May in the era of COVID
Yesterday it was the First of May, the International Workers’ Day. The way we work has been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in the past year or so: When will normality be back? I think it never will. The COVID crisis has pushed us to charge our habits and innovate work in a way that anticipates the future, and this change is here to stay. As a scientist with 15 years of experience in physics, I have been using half of the time I dedicate to research to analyse data on the COVID-19 pandemic since march 2020, while keeping an eye on its impact on the society. Here are a few personal reflections.
The COVID-19 caused unemployment increase, as the sanitary measures set up to curb the epidemic have slowed down the economy and forced many businesses (in particular restaurants and retailers) to close partially or totally. The open-and-close policies have been following the number of infections and the reproduction numbers. Now, after one year, the status of the economy is becoming a leading indicator to guiding politicians in the place of sanitary indicators. This fact is particularly evident in the country where I live, France, where the president Macron has clearly spelled out the primary role of the economy behind his decisions. At this day, we are slowly moving towards a risky path of reopening, while thousands of people are still infected every day.
As a researcher, it is very clear to me that reopening now will lead to a new exponential increase in weeks. Vaccinations are helping, but they are not enough to completely prevent a new outburst. The open-and-close policy is keeping the country on a rollercoaster ride, which is deleterious for the economy: small businesses will need to close down again, while large businesses miss the change for long term strategic planning. In addition, this situation is consuming for people: reopening is seen as a long-awaited return to normality and an opportunity to leave the desperate days of isolation. People’s need for normality leads to a relaxation of the prevention measures, and a return of the exponential growth, as shown by data. The rollercoaster will not stop.
Hence, a harder lockdown for two or three months, with tracking of the infected individuals, could have been more optimal. The economy could have suffered more, but for a much shorter time. The question is: Are we ready, in the Western democratic countries, to temporarily renounce our personal freedom in exchange for a faster return to normality? And saving hundreds of thousand lives? Well, I am.
COVID-19 has also made smart-working the norm in many businesses. At the University, I have been working from home for more than a year now. Same is true for many colleagues and collaborators, with whom I spent hours talking on a computer screen. This has become a daily routine for many, and I’m well aware of the many issues and problems associated. However, this is a natural evolution of the way we work that is anticipating an inevitable future. Applications for distance conferencing and business meetings (like Skype, Zoom, Slack, Hopin, to name a few) have been developed before the pandemic started, and their intense use in the past few months has lead to optimisations and improvements. Today I find a Zoom conference to be much more effective than an in-person one. The main benefit is the shortening of distances, as it makes it possible to have meetings with people from all over the world. This new approach has also shortened the distance between founders and investors in the thriving European start-up ecosystem. It is now easier for a European start-up team to seek investors in the US, for example. This change is going to stay. Finally, it is better for the planet, as less flights and business trips will be needed. Combined with less polluting energy sources, this could be a decisive step towards reducing the emission of climate changing gases. Overall, this is the future, and we better get used to it.
Localisation has also been accelerated by the pandemic. Frontiers are closed during the worst COVID episodes, leading to a change in the import-export in the world. I have seen some recent statistics showing that China (the largest exporter in the world) has remarkably reduced both its exports and its imports in 2020, compared to previous years. In western countries, like Europe and the US, imports have been greatly reduced. In China, the now COVID-free economy is developing more towards the internal market than it ever had before. Hence the exports towards the West have been reduced or delayed. A notable case is that of high-tech components like smartphone and car parts: many European countries are thinking of bringing back strategic production chains in order to be self sufficient in case of a crisis, like the COVID one. I think that localising the industrial chain will be beneficial in the long run, both for developed and developing countries. In the former, the price to pay is a higher price tag on the finished products for the customers, and a re-adjustment of the whole economy. This is worthy in view of a more stable economy when facing global crises like a pandemic.
COVID-19 has been changing how we work, especially in the western countries that are still largely affected after more than one year. Most of this change is for the better, as it is accelerating a natural development towards a more modern and resilient society. We better get used to the “new normal” after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
