4 | Ambiguity
In an ambiguous situation, making decisions is hard because there are multiple versions of the same reality that are competing, inconsistent, or incoherent, and it is difficult to know which one to choose.
Imagine you are returning home from a city you are visiting for the first time. You talk to your hotel concierge and he tells you that a taxi ride to the airport will take 45 minutes. Uber shows that it will be 70, considering traffic and other hazards. A guest in the lobby that overheard your conversation with the concierge suggests that your best option is the metro, although she heard that there is construction work in the airport line that may cause delays.
How do you make the right decision when the options are inconsistent?
This is a simple problem to illustrate the effect of ambiguity on leaders who find themselves in the difficult position of having to make high-impact decisions on the basis of contradictory information or inconclusive data. Ambiguity amplifies the complexity and uncertainty of a given situation: it is like adding fuel to the fire. In addition, if you happen to be under time, money, or reputation pressure, ambiguity will turn quickly into frustration, anger, or conflict.
Your ability to predict the consequences of your decisions is limited when it is contingent on how much you know about the context of the situation…
