"The important thing in science is not so much to obtain new facts as to discover new ways of thinking about it" - William Lawrence Bragg
Bitcoin (BTC) Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model was published in March 2019 .
The original BTC S2F model is a formula based on monthly S2F and price data. Since the data points are indexed in time order, it is a time series model. This model has activated quantitative analysts around the world. Many have verified the non-spurious relationship between S2F and BTC price .
If you are not familiar with the S2F model, I highly recommend reading the original article because it explains background and terminology. …
Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model was published in March 2019 . The model has been well received by bitcoiners and investors. Many analysts have verified the cointegrated S2F model and confirmed bitcoin price forecasts .
The S2F model also received critique. The best steel man argument against the model comes from the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The argument states that the model is based on publicly available information (S2F, bitcoin's supply trajectory) and therefore the analysis and conclusion must be already priced in.
In this article I share my point of view on S2F model and EMH. I analyze arbitrage opportunities, risk & return model and derivatives markets. …
Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper 31/Oct 2008 , created the bitcoin genesis block 03/Jan 2009, and released the bitcoin code 08/Jan 2009. So begins a journey that leads to a $70bn bitcoin (BTC) market today.
Bitcoin is the first scarce digital object the world has ever seen. It is scarce like silver & gold, and can be sent over the internet, radio, satellite etc.
"As a thought experiment, imagine there was a base metal as scarce as gold but with the following properties: boring grey in colour, not a good conductor of electricity, not particularly strong [..], …