Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model

Introduction

Phase Transitions

  1. Water
  2. US Dollar
  3. BTC
How major Bitcoin narratives changed over time
  1. “Proof of concept” -> after Bitcoin white paper [3]
  2. “Payments” -> after USD parity (1BTC = $1)
  3. “E-Gold” -> after 1st halving, almost gold parity (1BTC = 1 ounce of gold)
  4. “Financial asset” -> after 2nd halving ($1B transactions per day milestone, legal clarity in Japan and Australia, futures markets at CME and Bakkt)

BTC S2F Cross Asset (S2FX) Model

  1. BTC “Proof of concept” (S2F 1.3 and market value $1M)
  2. BTC “Payments” (S2F 3.3 and market value $58M)
  3. BTC “E-Gold” (S2F 10.2 and market value $5.6B)
  4. BTC “Financial asset” (S2F 25.1 and market value $114B)
Example of interpolation (left) and extrapolation (right) — data in blue, black line is model, red dot is forecast

Conclusion

Verification

References

Translations

  1. Albanian
  2. Bulgarian
  3. Chinese (also on Youdao)
  4. Danish
  5. French
  6. Georgian
  7. German
  8. Greek
  9. Italian
  10. Japanese
  11. Korean
  12. Dutch
  13. Persian
  14. Polish
  15. Portuguese
  16. Russian
  17. Serbian
  18. Spanish
  19. Swedish
  20. Thai
  21. Turkish

@100trillionUSD

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