3 Things To Improve All 30 Teams — The Detroit Tigers
The 2021 Detroit Tigers finished the season with a record of 77–85, good enough for 3rd place in the AL Central. Behind the capable leadership of one of the 3 best managers currently in the game, AJ Hinch, they surprised everyone with their 9th place overall finish in the American League. Although they are losing a few Tigers rebuild survivors to free agency, they have added a couple of big names to fill those shoes. Still seemingly a year away from contention, let’s see what we can do to get them one more step in the right direction.
1. Understand That Javier Baez Should Be No Higher In The Lineup Than 6th
In perhaps the Tiger’s biggest move of the offseason, they signed SS Javier Baez to a 6 year, $140 million deal. Baez is one of the best fielders in the game, and he immediately makes a huge impact on the Tigers defense. Nicknamed “El Mago” because of all the athleticism he brings to the SS position in making plays most other guys can’t and turning seemingly impossible double plays at ease. That is, however, probably the extent of Baez’s greatness.
Debuting for the Chicago Cubs on August 5th, 2014, Javy carries a career slash line of .264/.307/.477 with 149 homeruns and an OPS+ of 104 over 3,255 plate appearances and 862 games (more on his durability shortly). On the surface, those numbers don’t look awful. When you dive a little deeper into his rate stats, is where the issues lie.
Although he does hit homeruns at a slightly higher rate than league average (4.6% career average vs 3.1% MLB average over the length of his career), it comes at a steep price. Javy doesn’t get on base often and battles Joey Gallo yearly for the Major League lead in strikeouts. Walking at a career clip of 4.8% compared to league average of 8.3%, Javy’s highest single season OBP is currently .326. That came on the back of a .290 batting average. He doesn’t put the ball in play much, as he has struck out at a rate of 29.3% over his career. League average is 21.8%.
The best thing about baseball is that virtually everything in baseball can be boiled down to a stat. And rate stats are a great indicator of a player’s success or failures as they generally stay right around their career averages. Anything greater than a 5% difference is usually a fluke and more often than not will regress back to the mean. So, if Javy were to get 600 plate appearances (which he’s only done once in his career to this point), you can expect him to walk 28.8 (29) times which would give him 571 at bats. In those at bats he would strike out 175.8 (176) times leaving 395 times his bat will connect with the ball. He’ll hit 27.6 (28) homeruns which gives him a total of 367 times the ball will be put in play. Having a career BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .335, he’ll collect 122.9 (123) hits. With all of that being said, in a season in which he had 600 plate appearances, Javy Baez would have a slash of .264/.300/.475 which still gives him an OPS of .775 when league average is .800.
Aside from his struggles offensively, Javy also struggles to stay on the field. Having a potential to play in 1,084 games, he has only played in a total of 862 or 79.5%. That’s an average of 128.79 (129) games a year. That’s not enough games for him to amass 600 plate appearances. Should the Tigers be able to keep him on the field for 150+, keeping him in the 6 or 7 hole would be ideal. With his defensive abilities and his penchant for hitting clutch homeruns, he should add 4 wins to their total despite his other offensive struggles.
2. Take The Reigns Off Of Mize And Skubal
The Detroit Tigers did well in their 2018 draft in which they had the number 1 overall pick. With that first pick, they selected right handed pitcher Casey Mize. 8 rounds later, they selected left handed pitcher Tarik Skubal. In 2021, they had the 2 highest innings totals of all Tigers pitchers (150.1 and 149.1 respectively). This year, there should be no restrictions on these guys.
Casey Mize debuted in the shortened 2020 season and struggled a bit. Putting up an ERA of 6.99 over 28.1 innings and 7 starts, struggled might be putting it lightly. He turned it around in a huge way in 2021 putting up an ERA of 3.71 over 150.1 innings and 30 starts. As a groundball pitcher, he will benefit even more with Baez manning short behind him and should put up an ERA in the 3.00–3.25 range. They most definitely need him to go 175–200 innings this year, so not having a pitch count on him is highly advised.
Tarik Skubal also made his debut in the 2020 season where he had slightly more success than Mize as he put up a 5.63 ERA over 32 innings and 7 starts. He also seemed to figure it out in 2021 as he put up an ERA of 4.34 over 149.1 innings and 29 starts. Skubal is more of a power pitcher than Mize as he has struck out 201 batters over his 181.1 career innings for a career K/9 of 10. Expect him to also lower his ERA this year, closer to the 3.75–4 range.
With the 1–2 punch of Mize and Skubal, both entering their age 25 season, the Tigers have a very nice change of pace from one to the other. One right handed ground ball pitcher followed by a left handed power pitcher will drive hitters crazy week after week. Should the Tigers let these guys loose, expect them to add an extra 7 wins to their total.
3. Add One More Bat
In 2021, pitching was not the issue for the Tigers. Finishing the season with a team ERA of 4.32, ranking 17th in baseball, improving there will be easy. Power is an area of concern for the Tigers. Finishing 24th in baseball with a team total of 179 homeruns, only 3 Tigers had more than 20 homeruns (Eric Haase and Jonathan Schoop with 22 each and Robbie Grossman with 23). Miguel Cabrera is past his prime and his days of 30+ homeruns are behind him. They have added Javy to the lineup who could give them 25+ homeruns, but they still need to make one more free agent acquisition that could really pump their numbers up. One that swings from the left side.
Kyle Seager has spent the past 11 years in Seattle as a member of the Mariners. Over those 11 years, he’s played 150+ games in every year but one not including the 60 game 2020 season, in which he played all 60. He carries a career slash of .251/.321/.442 with 242 homeruns and an OPS+ of 112. He’ll draw his walks, and he’s good for 25–30 homeruns a year. Just last year, he put up 35 homeruns in his age 33 season, his career high. The average will be down, but expect him to hit .230/.300/.440 with 30 homeruns and add an extra win to the Tigers total.
Keeping El Mago healthy, letting Mize and Skubal do what they do best, and signing Kyle Seager should bring the Tigers an extra 11 wins over last year’s total. That would give them a record of 88–74, which would be good enough for 8th in the AL and have them contending for a playoff spot deep into September. Another step closer to bringing playoff baseball back to Detroit.
This has been the 10th entry in our series where we take a look at each individual team’s 2021 season and find 3 things that we can improve upon so that they will have a better 2022 season. Previous entries include the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Atlanta Braves, the Baltimore Orioles, the Boston Red Sox, the Chicago White Sox, the Chicago Cubs, the Cincinnati Reds, the Cleveland Guardians, and the Colorado Rockies. Drop a follow to be notified up future entries and other pieces! Next up will be the Houston Astros!
