June 28, 2019 Canadian Federal Election Poll — A Rundown
The Conservative Party has seen a bump in polling numbers nationally. However, not enough to obtain a majority government (170 seats) and currently holds 159 seats, mostly concentrated in western provinces as well as southern Ontario where they have taken votes from Prime Minister Trudeau’s Liberal Party.
For province-by-province analysis look below.
For non-canadians, here are the provinces, territories and major cities:
British Columbia: The Green Party continues growing, especially on the Vancouver island, reducing the number of seats the New Democratic Party (NDP — social democratic) is expected to win on the island where they traditionally flourished. Some vote splitting is expected, allowing other parties such as the Liberals and Conservatives a chance to steal seats. Vancouver and surrounding suburbs have seen increases in Conservative popularity, especially among urban ridings taken from the Liberals. The inland rural ridings previously swinging between the Liberals, NDP and Conservatives have swung heavily towards the Conservative Party of Canada. This is partially due to a positive sentiment for the Trans-Mountain pipeline explained under the Alberta segment.
Alberta: Conservative with the exception of two urban ridings, significantly bolstered by the unpopularity of the NDP associated with British Columbian premier John Horgan plus federal party leader Jagmeet Singh both combating the Trans-Mountain pipeline that has significant support in the province as well as negative sentiment towards the Liberal Trudeau administration under which the project was extensively delayed. As the energy sector is quite dominant in this portion of the country, an inability to export oil efficiently to foreign markets such as Asia (which the Trans-Mountain would increase the capacity for by taking oil to the pacific coast) has caused severe discontent against the Liberal Party of Canada.
Prairies (Saskatchewan, Manitoba): Although the Conservative Party holds the majority of seats, some headway is being made by the Liberals in urban regions such as Winnipeg where they hold two ridings and are currently 1% behind in another. However, as a part of Canada dependent on the energy sector and agriculture it tends to lean more conservatively by nature.
Territories (Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut): The Conservative Party holds Nunavut and Yukon, however the Northwest Territories is currently a battleground riding with the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 32% of the vote (it was awarded to the Liberals since they have the incumbent, but in reality it is too close to call). A significant portion of voters in these northern areas feel that they have been underrepresented and left behind by previous Conservative and Liberal governments, leading to increased NDP numbers up to 19% in Northwest Territories splitting away from the Liberals.
Ontario: The Conservative Party has seen a decline in ridings across the Greater Toronto Area and various other urban regions, partially due to a slump in the provincial Progressive Conservative Party’s polling numbers and their association to the federal party. Most of these lost ridings are transferred to the Liberal Party, with little increase for the NDP. The Green Party have risen in northern Ontarian ridings where they have taken the Thunder Bay — Superior North riding from the Liberals, leading by 1%.
Quebec: The Liberal Party has fallen in popularity among rural and suburban ridings in the Montreal-South Quebec region in exchange for an increase in Bloc (seperatist) popularity. However, Liberal support remains elevated on the Montreal island, especially in its west-most ridings. The NDP has seen extreme decreases in popularity among Quebecois ridings, only leading in one locality on the entire Montreal island. Conservative support remains relatively strong in southeastern portions of Quebec, increases especially pronounced in Quebec City where the Conservative Party leads in all urban ridings. However, it remains a small number of total Quebecois seats. The People’s Party (populist conservative) is almost on par with the Conservatives in their leader Maxime Bernier’s riding of Beauce, lagging by 1%, but continuing to struggle overall.
Atlantic (Newfoundland & Labrador, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick): The Liberal Party continues to hold a lead in Atlantic Canadian provinces, especially in Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland & Labrador. However, the Conservative Party has begun to catch up especially in New Brunswick and to some extent within Nova Scotia, although not as prominently. The NDP continues to hold some support but not an extensive amount.
