Bust of Excitement Bubble : what early adopters can do
Bust of excitement bubble is a human-made natural phenomenon…. whenever a new tends picks up (be it new technology, opportunity, or a new business idea), often too many people jump into it pre-maturely which leads to hype and over-valuation.
It creates a bubble, rather an excitement bubble; only to burst soon. It always happens - be it the dot-com bubble of 2000 (when even a simple HTML page had million+ USD valuation), or the real estate bubble of mid-2000, or 3D printing bubble of the mid-2010s, or the current bubble of crypto.
The good, bad and ugly reality of the early adoption
There are two sets of people who jump pre-maturely. The early adopters are those who believe in learning and seeking new possibilities. They explore, experiment, and shape the future of that trend (be it technology or a business idea).
But then, there are people who plunge out of either greed (to make quick money) or FOMO (fear of missing out). They care least about the core of technology and their genuine possibilities, their concerns are always money, the return on investment. They are here not to share the future, but due to fear of not missing out. They pretend to be technologists, while at best they are gambling.
The more people in the latter category, the bigger the hype. In the absence of any real use case and genuine solutions, soon the bubble bursts. It always happened, and it will continue. It’s not about “will it happen”, it’s about when. It may happen in few months to few years, depends on the size of the bubble.
The success lies not in being early, it’s knowing why you are here
To be an early adopter is a great thing and it maximizes the value (as the saying goes, society rewards the brave ones). However, the key here is self-realization; be aware of why you are here. Are you a genuine early adopter and concerned for the technology/trend or you are here to ride the hype and make quick money?
What if I am not a true explorer, but I am super interested
Patience is the key here. Don’t lose the hope that you missed the bus, rather be connected (read. understand. follow the trend), and be vigilant of the burst. Burst will happen. Gear up, and prepare to enter at early maturity state, don’t wait too long.
How do I know if its bubbling OR bursting
Two ways — 1.) Look around you 2.) Look at reports
1.) Around you — If everyone talks like an expert and is super positive about the trend, it is a sign of bubbling.
2.) Reports — follow credible reports, charts, and it’s very easy to make out if it’s still bubbling or already busted. As an example see the chart of the 3D printing trend. It’s a great technology and is redefining the digital transformation by digitalizing physical products.
This graph indicating that it was bubbling until 2015, then burst. It’s picking up again from 2019, that’s sign of early maturity. Now is indeed the best time to enter into 3D printing business.
It’s one example, you may find similar for area of your interest. And remember, new things will keep coming, so FOMO is unwanted, be unFOMO.
