Oh, hello

Hi, it’s us again, 3rd and Log. We know it’s been a while since you’ve heard from us, but it’s been busy around the office. One of the downsides to being a digital agency that decides to take on a side project like this, is that the stuff that pays the bills (the work) takes precedence over something we do for fun, like this blog or breakdance classes. Which is why we’ve been away. We’ve missed you too.

So what’d we miss? Well, we didn’t miss Cam’s pants on Saturday, but if you didn’t get to the Versace store on time you probably lost your shot at wearing them on Sunday (or any day for that matter). What we did miss out on was the implosion of the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, the Falcons handing the Panthers their first loss and LA getting not one, but potentially two NFL teams (sorry Chargers fan(s), they’re leaving).

Of those three things, the one that really impacted our rankings system was the Panthers loss to the Falcons. Before Week 16, Carolina was 13 points ahead of Denver in our Elo rating. After the loss to the Falcons, they were back to the number 3 spot and stayed there through the playoffs. Which is why our Super Bowl prediction looks like this:

Had the Panthers won against the Falcons, they would be the clear statistical winner in the Super Bowl. Because they didn’t, based on our rating system the Broncos now have the edge in the big game. However, when gammas are factored in to account for how this single game could play out, the Panthers have the edge. Through our inaugural season we’ve been very decisive in our picks, for this final post, statistically it appears that we can’t be.

So Long...for now

This will be our final post until the 2016 preseason starts. We’re not sure what form 3rd and log will take next season, but we’ve got some ideas that will make our analysis more interactive.

Before we sign off, a few thank yous. This blog wouldn’t have been possible if not for the collective hard work of a large group of Firstborners. Some of whom are pictured here:

Left to Right (Stephen Sim, Amy Frischertz, Liju George, Katie Cooper, Julien Perriere, Justin Earley & Tyler Swanson) Not Pictured: Cameron Templeton, Kyle Helmstetter, Thomas Briggs, Eugene Chung & Emily Hom. **Note:** We don’t have that many Lions fans, 2 out of the 3 pictured wore Lions gear as punishment.

We had a great (albeit sometimes stressful) time working on this project. We hope you enjoyed it as well and can’t wait to show you what we come up with next season.

Until then, that’s all from us here at 3rd and log. Join us next season when we find out if Antonio Brown’s tetris haircut can make a comeback or if another team can take over the Colts’ top spot for dumbest trick play of all time.

thanks,

3rd and log