Independent Party of Oregon STAR Voting Primary Spotlight on the Data:

Kim Thatcher and Ken Smith advance to the automatic runoff. Thatcher narrowly wins with 36% to Smith’s 34.2%. 29.8% had no preference between the finalists.

A New Voting Method

Let’s take a closer look at the voters who didn’t express a preference between the two finalists:

  • 21% of voters would have preferred one or more of the Democratic candidates to either of the finalists.
  • 6% of voters would have preferred non-affiliated candidate Armand “Rich” Vial to either of the finalists.
  • 1% of voters preferred both finalists equally over all others.
Breakdown of the 29.8% of voters who had no preference between finalists Thatcher and Smith

Did voters in this election lean right or left?

43% of voters were left-leaning and 44.3% were right-leaning
  • 51.4% gave Kim Thatcher a non 0 score.
  • 57% either preferred Rick Vial or supported Kim Thatcher with a non-0 score.

Did the voters who showed no preference between the finalists actually have no preference?

What would have happened if voters overall were more expressive?

A hypothetical do-over with all voters fully expressing their preferences and degree of support:

If voters had all been fully expressive they may have voted similarly to the ballots on the left. If so, Ken Smith- I may have been the consensus winner.

The learning curve or should we say ‘un-learning curve’:

Simulated election models represented in the image on the left show that STAR Voting produces more representative outcomes regardless of voter strategy compared to Choose-One Plurality and Ranked Choice (IRV.) The image on the right shows that with STAR Voting strategic voting is as likely to backfire as it is to help, and is not incentivized, in contrast to Choose-One and IRV. http://electionscience.github.io/vse-sim/VSE/

Did the candidate who best represented the electorate win?

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