James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State (45 FV)
At every opportunity throughout his collegiate career, Tibbs has hit. In his freshman year, he was a Second Team Freshman All-American. In his sophomore year, he slashed .339/.471/.682 and followed it up with an All-Star caliber season on The Cape, with an opportunity to push himself into first-round consideration this spring. He’s got a smaller and more mature build at 6’0 200 and is just a 50 grade athlete. At present, it seems as though he will be pushed to a corner outfield spot, which he will likely play at a league average level.
Tibbs absolutely kills my Swing Decisions model, placing second in the draft class to JJ Wetherholt. In 2023 he put up a 78.7% Zone Swing% to go with a 20% Chase%, indicating a plus or better swing decision profile. Additionally, he maintains these numbers, along with great contact quality, against breaking balls and high velocity fastballs. Despite this, his ball-to-ball skills have consistently lagged behind — projecting as below average with Whiff% >30%. I have a 55 on the hit tool as a whole, which is better than the 45s and 50s I’ve seen thrown around as of late. It’s a 25% K profile in the big league, with an outstanding approach that could carry him to near 20% BB rates as his career progresses — in a way outwalking the hit tool.
It’s 60 raw power. In fact, 58% of his batted balls were over 95 mph this spring. He’s hit numerous batted balls at 110 mph in his career and has a 90th EV of 105. The bulk of his damage is done in the air (Avg LA of 15, HH-LA of 22.3), and he should continue to display significant and consistent power production as he transitions to pro ball. It’s a steep bat path and I don’t think there will be an easy fix for the whiffs. At the end of the day with Tibbs, you’re buying a power bat, who could hit you 25 HRs a year at his peak, driven by premium swing decisions that can also play respectable defense in a corner spot.