A Long Time Coming

Last night, after sweeping all 5 states in the east coast primaries, Donald Trump formally anointed himself the presumptive nominee for the Republican Party. No matter how much media pundits don’t want to believe it, for all intents and purposes he is right. He could stumble through the rest of the primaries and still wind up with enough delegates that to pull some convention shenanigans in July would be tantamount to a mugging — and likely end up severely fracturing the party.

The RNC knows it. The chairman Reince Preibus, who the Donald has recently been calling “a nice man, a good man,” has made some attempts at grooming and polishing Mr. Trump with varying degrees of success. More aplomb is definitely noticeable in his election night victory speeches and telepromptered policy speeches, but his signature rallies are still as raucous as ever, filled with chants and nicknames and establishment disdain. More importantly, as Trump continues to cruise, the less inclined he will be to acquiesce to RNC elders and their requests for him to “tone down the rhetoric.” And who can blame him? All conventional wisdom has failed thus far and even the brightest political minds would be hard pressed to recommend changing such a winning strategy.

Hillary knows it. Beginning with her victory in New York last week she’s shifted her attacks away from Sanders and toward Trump. As the Donald continues his misogynistic line of attack, Hillary is embracing her role as the first female general election presidential nominee and digging in her heels to push back at Trump head on rather than counter- attack or deflect. The stage is set for a brutal general election where both candidates have higher unfavorable than favorable ratings and the greatest democracy on earth will be called upon in November to answer that sacred call — who do you hate less?

The only one still in denial is Ted Cruz. He keeps driving that bus around Indiana despite bungling his last ditch efforts to steal this thing and proving Trump right that everyone else in the primary doesn’t have that winning edge that only the Trump name guarantees. First there was the disastrous “alliance” with Kasich that both of them handled like a botched Abbot and Costello routine. Then there was the shameless pandering to an Indiana crowd where Senator Cruz engaged in a clumsy, awkward (even by his standards) homage to Hoosiers — he had someone measure a “basketball ring” at 10 feet and then proclaimed that it was the “exact same height in New York and all across the land.” Even if he got the wording right I fail to see how the metaphor fits. And finally, in the most perplexing move of all Ted decided to name a running mate. Yes, a running mate. As a long shot to win the nomination, he announced in grand fashion to his supports that he has chosen Carly Fiorina as his running mate on the off chance he is nominated. Yes, Carly Fiorina. The same Carly Fiorina that was an early loser in the primary, who has never held elected office despite trying twice, and essentially ran a great American corporation into the ground while escaping with a golden parachute. This Californian who has a record of laying off thousands is supposed to help Ted Cruz win Indiana, the state with the highest number of manufacturing jobs in the country.

So Trump it is. The reality TV star in the funny red hat at the Iowa State Fair that everyone snickered at. The 80s businessman who raised eyebrows, dropped jaws, and had the media clamoring for more as he rattled off far out ideas of border walls and Mexican rapists and Chinese currency conspiracies. The guy with the odd yellow hair that all of the smart, educated, media savvy people counted out because they couldn’t foresee how the country could be taken in by some long con. But almost a year later here he is, the man that’s never held political office, as the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party getting ready to show down against Hillary Rodham Clinton — former First Lady, former Senator, former Secretary of State.

As interesting as the how is — the path, the rallies, the crazy ups and downs that led from Iowa to today — the why is even more intriguing. To be clear, the vast majority of the country has yet to cast a vote in this election cycle. Despite the amazing primary turnout that will probably beat 2008’s records, in total only about 45 million votes have been cast. Compare to the general election in 2012 where over 125 million votes were cast and in 2008 where almost 130 million votes were cast. Conventional wisdom — which tends to be wiser in a general election than a primary cycle — says that Donald Trump will get trounced in the general, maybe even the worst popular vote loss in American history. But even with the polls in Hillary’s favor, despite Mr. Trump’s constant claims to the contrary, the Clinton campaign needs to very seriously take note of what is happening in these Republican primaries.

The fatal error that Hillary Clinton’s campaign must avoid is exactly what democratic pundits have been doing for the last 6 months in chalking up Trump’s popularity to ‘angry white males.’ Trump is polling ahead with white males by a 25 point margin and when the number is that high, and they are all being labeled ‘angry’ either the moniker is incorrect or there is a far more serious problem. White males built this country and continue to run the country. Ninety-one percent of fortune 500 CEOs are white males, eighty percent of congressional members are white males, eighty-eight percent of the Forbes 400 are white males. Despite the enormous strides that minorities and women have made in the past couple of decades, white males are still at the core of America’s power structure. It’s not an agenda but a fact. One can argue that it is some form of institutional racism or sexism, or some kind of nepotism, but it is hard to argue that it is not true.

This white male angst is popping up in such a widespread form for the first time in American history and those in power better take notice and heed the warnings. Political correctness in course correcting TV shows, and commercials to create a more diverse America that doesn’t necessarily exist in reality is creating a backlash. Social justice warriors on Facebook and Twitter and millennials who offend at every possible opportunity especially in matters of race, gender, and orientation have gone too far in demanding apologies for microagressions and triggers and there is once again a backlash.

If Newton’s Third Law is to be believed, Trump is the reaction to the above. Even liberals are beginning to speak up on this issue. Bill Maher dedicated his marquee segment last week to bashing the media, conventional and social, for going out of their way to make white people uncool. The Democratic Party and its current leader Secretary Clinton have a decision ahead of them — to reach out to this disaffected population and try to include them and their concerns in the Democratic platform, or to push forward and say “America is changing, get used to it.” The latter may work this time, because in Donald Trump you have a candidate who despite speaking for this large swath of America has several other failings, both in personality and experience.
But make no mistake that other Republicans are paying very close attention to this unique election cycle and how their base electorate is changing. A republican with a similar bravado, a similar appeal to the “angry white male,” but with more tact and more experience will make an appearance in the 2020 election cycle, guaranteed. Not since FDR has one party held the presidency for 16 straight years, and those that are staying away from this election — ahem Paul Ryan — are studying the pulses for their own advantage next time around.

This talk of making America great again and winning will not end with Donald Trump. It’s important to note that whether by design, or whether instinctual Donald Trump devised these core principles of his campaign with a very specific voter in mind. After all, a message of “Make America Great Again” only appeals to those who feel America is no longer great for them. A message of winning only appeals to those who feel they are losing. Then it follows that it is not a coincidence that 3 days before Trump’s big day on the East Coast the CDC released a report that suicide rates are at their highest level in 30 years. And the demographic with the sharpest increase — white males. This phenomenon is not to be ignored.

What started with September 11th and the wars that followed, and culminated in the housing crisis and economic downturn that disproportionately hit manufacturing has created a hellish decade for the white male. Couple that with policies from both parties that make the rich richer and have the government borrowing and spending more and more, it’s no wonder that the electorate is fed up. Whether it was Trump that leveraged it or someone else, it was inevitable. There were hints of it before but the true testament was in February in South Carolina when Donald Trump stood on a stage in a hall filled with the military that keeps Charleston’s economy running. Standing right next to George W. Bush’s younger brother he declared like so many outspoken Democrats have before that Bush failed to keep America safe, Bush lied, Bush took us to war under false pretenses and the uproar from that audience was filled with as many cheers as jeers. At that point it became very clear that this candidacy in some form or another was a long time coming.