Massive Migrant March Mythology

“signage on night” by Nitish Meena on Unsplash

The migrant caravan is in the news and it is Dia del Muertos. What better day to write about immigration from the South? There is a manufactured crisis being stoked on our southern border for political ends. The president is deploying as many as 15,000 troops to meet the crisis of an alleged giant caravan of migrants coming to America. The size of the caravan has fluctuated quite a bit since it was first reported. However, the number of 5,000 has been about the average for the reported size of the caravan.

I started to think about this migrant caravan of 5000 people walking to the southern border. Given the amount of consternation that it is causing, it would seem like it might be an easy way to distract the United States. I started thinking about how much would it cost to sponsor a caravan? The quick “in my head” calculations convinced me that for a million dollars or so a nation state or other bad actor could cause a lot of drama in the United States simply by paying people to walk toward the border.

I started thinking some more about these quick “in my head” calculations, because it seemed this distraction of the United States was way too easy. It was just too easy to get the United States to expend many tens of millions of dollars deploying thousands of troops just through the sponsorship of a caravan. This situation just could not be. I started thinking more about the quick calculations I did and wondered how many undocumented are crossing at the border every day.

Here is where things get REAL interesting. I decided to find out what the estimated number was for illegal border crossings every year. Obviously, this is not a hard and fast number, but just an estimate. I did some searches on the Internet and found that most estimates were placing the annual undocumented worker flow into the United States to be between 10 and 12 million a year. Here is a link from Pew Research on that number.

At this point, I could no longer do quick “in my head” calculations, but it was still fairly simple math. The kind that we used to call “back of the dinner napkin” math. Basically, using the average of 11 million illegal border crossings annually, and knowing that most of this is coming from the South, we can safely use five and a half million as the average annual illegal border crossings on the southern border. Now we divide by the number of days in a year, 365. This calculation will give us the average number of illegal border crossings PER DAY. Do the math for yourself. What is 5500000 divided by 365 ? I will do it for you. The United States has on average about fifteen thousand illegal border crossings from the south EVERY DAY!

This is just an average, so we can presume that things fluctuate. Just for the sake of argument lets say there is a fifty percent swing in the count over time that averages out to fifteen thousand. Using that rule of thumb we would estimate that there are between 7,500 and 22,000 illegal border crossings on any given day which averages out to 15,000 per day annually. These are all very big numbers, but they are not new numbers. These have been the numbers for years.

Using these numbers, there is no crisis at the southern border. At least no more of a crisis than there was last year or the year before or the year before that, yada yada. The statistics clearly illustrate that there are three to five migrant caravans crossing the border on any given day. This alleged “caravan” of five thousand people is not a threat to our border in any way. It is barely a drop in the bucket and is well within the expected fluctuation of illegal traffic crossing the border on any given day.

I don’t think the aforementioned numbers are even in dispute, so why am I the only one saying anything about it? Where are the Democrats on this issue? The president is going to deploy the American military on domestic soil for an alleged crisis that does not exist. The president will defy the Posse Comitatus Act. The president will most likely be suspending habeas corpus as well since the military is going to be doing the policing.

The Democrats appear to be complicit here allowing the president to do as he pleases without doing anything to block unconstitutional actions. There is no southern border crisis nor an immigrant caravan any bigger than the ones that have come before. However, the Democrats are silent on these statistics. Where are the talking heads in the media on this? These numbers are all publicly available anyone could have done the back of the napkin calculations that I just presented here.

The duopoly continues unchecked. Under the cover of hyperpartisanship, the duopoly continues to roll back the rule of law in favor of authoritarian actions. Clearly, somebody is making money off the open southern border or it would have been closed long ago. It is not the average American or the people trying to escape poverty and violence that are making profits from the open border. America has the technology to close the border. For some reason, the border has remained open. Americans know the border can be closed anytime, but fail to understand that moneyed power makes the choices for the government. Americans instead blame the immigrants for their terrible choice.

There is a Massive Migrant March Myth that is being foisted upon Americans. Shockingly, the alleged opposition has ignored the publicly available numbers that would expose the myth. Why? Why have the media failed to sit down at a calculator and divided five million by the number of days in the year?

Beginning to be disillusioned with the duopoly? There is always the libertarian-socialist alternative.