Hypotheses Testing Using The Science of Persuasion

Robert Cialdini, Professor of Psychology and Marketing at Arizona State University along with Steve Martin, Director of Influence at Work, and Noah Goldstein, Professor of Management and Organization at UCLA, studied the factors that influence us to say Yes to the requests of others. They discuss 6 scientifically validated principles of persuasion that provide for small, practical and often costless changes that can lead to a big difference in our ability to ethically influence and persuade others. As tech founders and startup managers, how can we use these principles to increase our user base, conversion rates, sales and more? This is the question I will attempt to discuss in this article.

Let’s take a closer look at each principle and how we can use its influence to test its effectiveness.

1. RECIPROCITY

One of the demonstrations of the effectiveness of the principle of reciprocity was conducted in restaurants. If you recall, most waiters offer a gift about the same time they give you a bill. Research shows that giving diners a single mint at the end of a meal roughly increases tips by 3%. Surprisingly, if waiters give 2 mints instead of 1, tips tend to increase by 14%. To demonstrate the power of reciprocity, if waiters give one mint, starts to walk away from the table, pause, turn back and say: ‘for you nice people, here is an extra mint’. Tips rise to 23%. Influence not by what was given but how it was given. Simply put, people are obliged to give back to others in the form of behavior, gift, or service they have received first. The conclusion to be drawn is to be the first to give and to ensure that what you give is personalized and unexpected.

How can we use the power of reciprocity in our tech solutions to drive traffic, downloads, sales, referrals and more? Here are two hypotheses you can test and tailor to your startup:

Hypothesis 1: Users are more likely to continue using the service, invite their friends and spread the word if they sign up for a free trial and use the solution actively during the free period then receive a notification or email saying: because you like it and because you trusted we will provide a valuable solution, for you ‘Name’, here’s a an extra month off! Tell your friends about it.

Hypothesis 2: Users are more likely to make a purchase, consider buying again, invite their friends and spread the word if when they spend an extended period checking the pictures and reading about a specific item then receive an email or notification saying e.g.,: We think it’s a great shirt too! because you like it and because we want you to have it, here is a 20% off and don’t forget to tell your friends about it.

Obviously without advanced analytic none of the tests could be tested or validated. Steve Blank, serial entrepreneur and academician at Stanford University, refers to startups at their initial stages, as faith based enterprises that are made of a series of untested assumptions and hypotheses to be validated by customer interaction and continuous iteration and pivoting. If you can’t quantify it, you can’t measure it. And if you can’t measure it, you can’t evaluate it. Analytics are key.

2. SCARCITY

People want more of things they can have less of. The study was conducted on British Airways when in 2003 it announced that it will no longer operate the twice daily London-NY concord flight because it had become uneconomical to run. Sales, the very next day, took off even though nothing has changed about the concord itself. It didn’t fly any faster or the service got suddenly better or airfare dropped. It had simply become a limited resource and as a result, people wanted it more. The conclusion drawn from this principle is clear: it’s not enough to highlight the gain obtained from your products and services, it’s as important to point out what is unique about your proposition and what potential and/or existing customers stand to lose if they fail to consider your solution. How can we test this principle?

Hypothesis 1: Users who show interest in making a purchase are more likely to buy faster if they are tied by time and/or limited number of available items or spots.

Hypothesis 2: Users are more likely to upgrade if they can quantitatively, in a personalized manner, evaluate what they are missing in e.g., speed, quality, features, results, etc.

3. AUTHORITY

People follow the leads of credible and knowledgeable experts. One of the studies was conducted on the habits of patients. Physiotherapists were able to persuade more of their patients to comply with recommended exercise programs if they display their medical diplomas in the middle of their consulting rooms. Another study shows that people are more likely to give change for a parking meter to a complete stranger if the requester wears a uniform rather than casual clothes. In a different setting, a group of real estate agents were able to increase both the number of property appraisals and the number of subsequent contracts that they wrote by arranging for a reception staff who answered customer inquiries to first mention their colleagues’ credential and expertise. These introductions led to a 20% increase in the number of appointments and 15% rise in the number of signed contracts.

Perhaps intuitively and without any support from research you could safely assume that people tend to seek the advice, service and mentorship of experts who proved to be great at what they do. The science emphasizes on the importance of signaling to others what makes us credible and knowledgeable before making an influence attempt. In addition, arranging for someone to show our credibility is even more powerful and increases potential customers’ confidence in our ability to deliver great results. So how can we benefit from these findings?

Hypothesis 1: Companies that have been featured in highly recognized news papers, magazines and T.V. shows, make sure potential customers see that they have, are more likely to gain their trust and convert them into buyers.

Hypothesis 2: Companies that are referred by affiliates (brand ambassadors, bloggers, friends, existing clients, etc.) are more likely to gain the trust of customers and convert them into buyers.

4. CONSISTENCY

Consistency is activated by looking and asking for small initial commitments that can be made. For example, a study on health care appointments found that asking the patient rather than the staff to write down appointment details on the future appointment cards reduced cancellations by 18%. In another study on a drive safely campaign, the number of home owners who agreed to place a wooden board on their yard increased by 400% because 10 days earlier they agreed to place a small postcard in the front window of their home that signaled their support for this campaign. Look for voluntary, active and public commitments and ideally get those commitments in writing if you seek to influence using the principle of consistency. Now back to hypotheses testing. Here are two examples:

Hypothesis 1: Users are more likely to covert to paid customers if they sign up for a free trial.

Hypothesis 2: Users are more likely to attend a webinar or an event if they type “attending” or even more if they send a confirmation email rather than checking a box. Similarly, users are more likely to refer a friend if they initially check Yes to “Would you refer a friend?” then in another occasion get asked for the email of the friend.

5. LIKING

Cialdini, Martin and Goldstein present three factors that cause one person to like another:

-People like others who are similar to them
-Those who pay them compliments, and
-Those who cooperate with them towards mutual goals

One of the studies was conducted on a series of online negotiations between MBA students where one group was asked to get straight to business and the other was told to first exchange personal information and identify similarities. 55% of the first group was able to come to an agreement while 90% of the second group came to a successful and agreeable outcome that was typically worth 18% more to both parties. The science is clear. Look for areas of similarities that you share with others and genuine complements you could give before you get down to business. How can we get liked?

Hypothesis 1: If users can sort case studies and testimonials based on similar situations, they more likely will be able to envision themselves using and benefiting from the solution and thus make a purchase (similarity).

Hypothesis 2: Users are more likely to upgrade if they sign up for a free trial, receive a call from the company representative during which he/she relates to them, gets to know them better and offer help.

6. CONSENSUS

People often look for the behavior and actions of others to determine their own. This has been proven in hotels. Research showed that placing a small card in the bathrooms that attempt to persuade guests to reuse their towels increased towel reuse by 75% for people who check in for 4 nights or longer. It turns out that this message is even more effective when it is personalized and comparable. A message saying, 75% of people who stayed in this room have reused their towel, led to a 33% increase in reuse. The authors conclude that rather than relying on our own ability to persuade others, we can point to what many others are already doing, especially many similar others. Hypothesis 1 in the principle of liking is a great test for consensus. How else can we test and convey this principle?

Hypothesis 1: Users are more likely to sign up to a mail list or a service if they are shown a message that says e.g., 50% of users who joined the list last week and referred 2 friends were given a free one year trial of the service.

Hypothesis 2: Users are more likely to make a purchase if they are given the opportunity to discuss with existing users similar to them the benefits they have gained from using the product or service.

These are six validated principles of persuasion researched by Cialdini, Martin and Goldstein. An unlimited number of hypotheses can be drawn and tested from this logic. Don’t hesitate to share your thoughts and ideas on how to use these principles to provide for small, practical and often costless changes that can increase your ability to influence others.