Actual Trading Announces Crypto Targets at 10:00 am ET on June 10th, 2019.
We are constructive on cryptocurrencies but entry points are the key element to surviving volatility and specifically a push lower from present highs.
The market is caught short from the spikes in cryptocurrencies: BTC 7,665 to 8,076 and ETH 233 to 246.92. Selling began on June 3. …
Actual Trading Announces Crypto Targets at 8:00 am ET on May 22nd, 2019.
We remain constructive on cryptocurrencies but wary about entry points and the concern that a medium term down move could stop out recent longs.
The market continues to add positive fundamental news. Consensus in NYC showed an expansion of startups on the finance side of business with respect to asset management, custody, and financial services. Amazon, Deloitte and IBM presentations indicated a new large corporate focus on the space, especially technical applications and client demand for ledger solutions. …
AN UPDATED Crypto Targets were announced at 7:00 pm ET on May 11th, 2019.
Too far too soon.
Overall market is turning and positive fundamental forces are building especially with established firms entering the digital and crypto space. Although Consensus arrives this week with likely positive projects and sentiment, do not think the weak buying above 7,400 and 200 will allow a more substantial rally over the next week.
Sell BTC 7,400–7,500 and ETH 202–208 for a pull back potentially to BTC 6,500–6,700 and ETH 175–180.
Actual Trading Announces Crypto Targets at 1:00 am ET on May 11th, 2019. …
We have moved from short term bearish and medium term bullish crypto to short and medium term neutral.
The move down from BTC 5,450 and ETH 186, down to 5,000 and 160 — with exchange specific spikes lower — moves of 8–13% respectively, take us to levels where we have closed all short positions.
We have in fact begun accumulating long positions but stand at only 10–15% long assets at the 5,010–5,040 and 161–164 levels. We see substantial selling interest in crypto and are buying conservatively to recognize the possibility of another push lower. We see the possibility of a more extended move lower given the rapidity of the initial trade down which did not allow position liquidations. The weekend presents additional liquidity concerns and vulnerability to both the downside and upside. Given this abrupt move lower, we have curbed our enthusiasm temporarily and moved from medium term bullish to neutral in order to let market prices find their levels. Our goal is to gravitate towards 50% long as we hold these levels and trade slightly lower, perhaps 1–2% below these recent lows. We would then allow for a more substantial move to 3,900–4,400 and 139–144, levels breached by the April 1 break higher, where we would move to 80% long. We are short- and medium-term neutral at these levels, looking to trade from the long side given our longer term upward bias. Our position size is very small because of risk that market participants may try to push prices lower or higher. Our goal is to fade those moves but not get too involved in middle of daily trading ranges. We think the next few days could bring attempts to push prices decisively, but that those moves will then be met by opposing sellers/buyers to moderate initial moves. The sharp moves have just happened. …
Actual Trading Announces Revised Short Term Crypto Targets at 3pm ET on April 10th, 2019.
We have moved from short and medium term bullish crypto to short term bearish and medium term bullish.
From a short-term trading perspective and from that of companies needing to fund operational expenses, these are excellent levels given how much lower we were several weeks ago even as we see a consistent level of demand especially from newer participants looking to establish a position in these markets.
We trade this market by buying substantial drops lower — 5% to 15% — and selling at 182–185 ETH and 5450–5520 BTC for a short-term trade. We are also poised for a break of 200 ETH and a corresponding move up in BTC that would allow us to sell more substantial amounts into stop losses at the 208–215 level and 5900–6200 BTC level. …
On March 1st, Element Group changed its name to Actual Group. Over the last year and a half, Element accomplished amazing things — we grew rapidly with the market, expanded our geographic presence, and worked on impactful blockchain projects. We built deep, multilateral relationships with our clients, investors, and community. We scaled to offer four distinct services offerings — advisory, trading, asset management, and technology services.
We built tremendous capabilities of a full-service investment bank that was leveraged to the success and continued growth of digital asset capital markets. With strong partners in the industry, a global reach, and strong in-house talent, we were executing on a defined mission and model that we’ve seen success in other nascent capital markets — commodities, BRICs, asset-backed securities. …
The moment investment institutions began adding crypto assets to their portfolios, professional traders saw this as an opportunity to apply technical analysis to the space and carve out a new level of foresight on digital asset market movements.
These trading techniques were not created in a vacuum, specially-designed for the cryptocurrency market — why reinvent the wheel? Traders have taken systems used in other markets — such as foreign exchange — and they have tested and analyzed the data until they are able to isolate identifying tells for price movement. …
— by Element Group —
What is a stablecoin?
The ‘stable’ in stablecoin refers to the value of the coin. The price is designed to remain basically static by pegging the coin to another stable asset, such as gold or the US dollar.
Rather than having its value decided by supply and demand, every coin produced is backed by a set value of the asset they are pegged to. In the case of Tether, the ratio is 1:1 with the US dollar. …
(These insights first appeared in Element Group Asset Management’s Weekly Thoughts)
What are driving prices right now are modern day bucket shops
Some exchanges are currently operating as modern day bucket shops. They offer retail investors the chance to place short term bets on daily price movements with considerable leverage. The daily trading activity for these instruments can result in extreme price moves in the underlying price of the asset on other exchanges that are more regulated.
We make this distinction not from a legal perspective. But we are traders and risk managers, and we work in a regulated space, so we have to follow the rules. …
How a market evolves is difficult to perceive in real time. You can see how one blockchain project positions itself against the backdrop of its competitors, but how can you distill the evolution an entire industry’s positioning? To answer this question, our research team zoomed out to look how blockchain marketing and positioning as a whole has been evolving amidst doubt, scrutiny, and success.
To get a macro view of content and marketing in the crypto-sphere, we analyzed 130 successful ICOs over three separate month-long snapshots (June 2017, January 2018, June 2018). These snapshots capture different points in an evolving market. …