The Starting Unit
The Memphis Grizzlies started the 2023/24 off-season with 1.5 starting rotation spots to fill after the announcement that Dillon Brooks would not return under any circumstances. The other 0.5 was the uncertainty surrounding the health status of Steven Adams — this became a larger issue once it was announced Adams would have season ending surgery three days prior to the start of the NBA season.
The Grizzlies traded for Marcus Smart and had a starting foursome of :
- Ja Morant (lead offensive engine/offence initiator);
- Marcus Smart (do-everything wing and Point-of-Attack defender — 3&D as a skillset is outdated);
- Demond Bane (elite shot-maker); and
- Jaren Jackson Jr. (anchor big with wing/guard offensive skills)
This left a missing piece in the Grizzlies modern offence philosophy, or at least how I view the Front Office/Coaches’s roster building philosophy, of a playmaking-type big to compliment JJJ in the front court.
Memphis has focused their bigs playmaking into two main sets Pinch, or what other teams may call Elbow (terminology isn’t important here), and 5-Out Delay offence. In past seasons these sets have run through Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke, and at times Xavier Tillman Sr. or Santi Aldama. Coming into the season Head Coach Taylor Jenkins spoke about using Santi Aldama in these situations.
Aldama has not taken over this role in the starting unit, as it would leave the Grizzlies short in several areas (i.e. Rebounding, skill overlap, skill deficiency overlap) given a questionable philosophical fit in the front court with JJJ.
The goal with these sets is to create halfcourt advantages in their Gear One offence without relying on semi-transition sets (or what the Memphis Grizzlies organization refers to as Gear Two — which I will touch on at some point in the future). The purpose of this piece is less X&O’s specific and more of a general thought process on bigs-playmaking/team-building but I have included clips and tweets where applicable.
***
Pinch Offence
Pinch offence is run through, usually, the Center or Power Forward as a playmaking hub on the Elbow (I have seen this more generally referred to as Elbow or Split-Cut Offence league-wide but Pinch within the Memphis Grizzlies system — again not important). Memphis, at times, this season has run it through Marcus Smart in place of a big.
From my hand tracking play-by-play possessions, Memphis has run plays out of their Pinch formation 139 times this season scoring 121 points or 0.8705 Points per Possession (PPP). *Note that my handtracking data is up to December 29, 2023, after the Los Angeles Clippers game and does not include garbage time. Also take it with a grain of salt as it is entirely hand tracked…
Compare this to their halfcourt offence (via. Cleaning the Glass) of 0.9090 PPP (or 90.9 points/100 possessions) for all possessions or my tracking data of 0.9421 PPP on all halfcourt sets this season (I don’t have other teams to compare this to as this information is generally not tracked — apart from from @Tim_NBA who tracks this for the Los Angeles Lakers and has been incredibly helpful in everything I have done on twitter — but it would be very poor compared to the rest of the league!) and it is clear that this set is a below average option thus far for the Memphis Grizzlies.
In 2022/23 Memphis averaged 1.12 PPP on their Pinch set (Steven Adams + health and better shot-making). Points per Possession is not entirely indicative of the player initiating the set (this isn’t all on the bigs) and is oftentimes dependant on teammates making shots — even if the “right” pass is made the teammate could still miss the shot.
5-Out Delay
Memphis Grizzlies Delay Offence is a 5-out set initiated through a big at the top of the key. In the below example, against the Denver Nuggets, the strongside corner (David Roddy) sets a Flare Screen for for the wing (Bane), and slips the screen, while the weakside wing (John Konchar) sets a Pin for the weakside corner (Vince Williams Jr.) and slips his screen. This flows into a DHO for Bane while Biyombo rolls to the rim — of course this is not the only example/sequence of Delay.
So far this season the 5-Out Delay offence has peaked in 6 near-garbage time possessions against the Denver Nuggets in which the Grizzlies scored 9 points in 6:20 of the 3Q.
If the numbers for Pinch have looked bad so far then Memphis’s Delay offence (0.7739 PPP on the season) is going to look horrid.
Delay sets featuring Biyombo have averaged 0.80 PPP while Tillman-run sets have averaged 0.7619 PPP (with a statistically insignificant amount of attempts for Jaren Jackson Jr — 0.6400 PPP — and Kenneth Lofton Jr — 0.6667 PPP).
Short Roll
A third way Memphis creates offence with their bigs is through the Short Roll where the big setting the screen stops short of rolling to the rim and receives a pass, from the ball handler, to create offence. This is the real advantage creation spot for the bigs used against blitzs/ice-ing/traps/hard hedges — putting two on the ball turns the situation into 3 defenders guarding 4 players on offence. Below is an example of Memphis using the Short Roll, against the Utah Jazz hedging Bane, to create a 3-point opportunity.
Biyombo’s first start of the season against the Portland Trailblazers looked like the Grizzlies found a second playmaking center to pair with Tillman though at the time I thought this could be an outlier performance. Since then he’s had only one game that has come close to replicating his playmaking out of the Short Roll (even with back-to-back 4 assist games against the Lakers/Spurs).
Tillman’s Short Roll playmaking has been a consistent strength since being drafted but this is less a part of the Grizzlies main offence actions and more of a counter to specific defences.
Keep Option
When the playmaking option isn’t available on these sets the big has the option to turn these actions into keeps where the playmaking hub becomes the scorer.
Jaren has taken a significant leap in scoring to start the season
- Averaging 1.13 PPP on Post-Up possessions (71st percentile)
- 1.16 PPP on Iso possessions (84th percentile)
At the same time JJJ’s passing and decision making has improved from prior seasons. JJJ is averaging 1.7 assists per game and 3.2 potential assists per game up from 1.0 assist and 1.8 potential assists in 2022/23.
The issue is Memphis mostly uses JJJ as a spacer in their offence (back to the big with wing/guard skills point) and Biyombo or Tillman as the primary hubs in these sets and while JJJ has improved they are still missing the playmaking a Steven Adams front court partner provides.
Tillman had a -1.2 Offensive Estimated Plus Minus (EPM) in 2022/23, good for the 51st percentile, but is down to -4.7 Offensive EPM this season, 3rd percentile (!!). According to Basketball Index’s O-LEBRON stat, Tillman places similarly, with a -2.09 O-LEBRON in 2023/24 (5th percentile) after finishing with a -1.00 O-LEBRON in 2022/23 (31st percentile).
His efficiency has taken a drop from every “high-volume” scoring location — knocking his True Shooting % down from 62.4% in 2022/23 (81st percentile) to 42.2% in 2023/24 (1st percentile!!). Above compares Tillman’s 2023/24 season (top row) to his 2022/23 season (bottom row) in Efficiency and Shooting Location.
The keep option was never a strength for Tillman but he has regressed in other areas of offence where the ability to be a secondary/tertiary source of creation is hampered by a non-existent offensive game. His floater has completely escaped him this year where the shot was respectable filling in for Steven Adams in the second half of the 2022/23 season. Where short roll playmaking was a strength in prior seasons, teams can sell out on other players and force Tillman to score with no counters.
Biyombo, who I have less of a feel on in terms of past offensive production/use, has been sporting a Usage Rate of 11.4% (9th percentile) and Offensive EPM of -2.5 (26th percentile). Important to note that this does not necessarily mean Biyombo is a better/more versatile offensive player than Tillman but is indicative of his impact, as measured by the creator, so far on the season.
The keep option is a missing piece in sets featuring bigs. Not only is there a lack of scoring at (or ability to get to) the rim but the inability to score creates a spacing issue for cutters. Even if the Grizzlies have “5-out” the spacing aspect is more reflective of the defence and how they shrink the floor in response to specific actions.
Flash Middle
The Flash Middle plays, typically seen against Zone Defence or Post-Up doubles, haven’t quite produced this season where Memphis ranks near-dead last in Zone offence (though they also rank near-dead last in man-on-man defence!).
This is another usual area of strength for Xavier Tillman (and at times Brandon Clarke) helping create from the middle of the zone
I don’t have any unofficial tracking on Short Roll/Flash Middle playmaking success, but more-so highlighting some opportunities for the Grizzlies to improve playmaking where they have succeeded in the past.
***
All this to say I am not sold on the “Steven Adams-type center, who can rebound and set screens, is all the Grizzlies need ” statements. Adams is Adams because he has elite skills (rebounding, screening, strength) with + passing for a big. Replacing those qualities with a player who is even 80% of that skillset, without compensating with other complimentary skills (shooting, offence, etc.), is not optimal in this Memphis Grizzlies offence (they have also never been a top-15 halfcourt offence with Adams).