101 on the Democratic Primaries after March 15

Notice something different?

The yellow in both pictures are states Hillary won in 2008 and so far in 2016 — The purple is what Obama won in 2008, green is Sanders in 2016.

One of the major components that allowed Obama to win in 2008 was the overwhelming support he received from the South and in particular from the Black communities along the “Bible Belt”.

Even in states like Texas and Florida that Hillary won — Obama was still able to close the gap and take more delegates than Hillary (Texas 08: H= 94, O= 99).

Something that Bernie FAILED to do (Texas 16: H=147, S= 75) (Florida 16: H=133, S=65)

Now you do NOT win the Democratic nomination based on how many states you win — you do so by how many delegates you collect. Hillary already commands a 2–1 advantage in all of the southern states including the delegate-rich states of Texas and Florida.

There are still many states like Kentucky, Arizona, NY, NJ, Maryland, where Hillary is going to win because of the coalition that supports her. Unless there is a major scandal that somehow torpedos the Clinton campaign, she is bound to win these states. Bernie will win most of the remaining states that Obama won back in 2008, from Washington and Alaska to Hawaii and Wyoming. Yet, there is something he’s already missing that Obama did great at… the South.

“BUT he can win California and Wisconsin and New York”

Well... yes. Perhaps Bernie will be able to win California if he makes it all the way to June, but unlike the GOP primaries where they have winner-take-all states, all of the Democratic primary states distribute their delegates proportionally. Which pretty much means that if he wins, Hillary wins too. And I personally believe Bernie will not win NY or CA with +65% margins. Why? Because these states are way more diverse than Idaho or Nebraska. Let’s not forget that Hillary was the U.S Senator for New York and there is still a lot of loyalty and support among elected officials and voters across the state. So my prediction is that Hillary will win NY but perhaps Sanders will be able to close the gap.

California might be a toss-up, mostly because so far we haven’t seen how big Hillary can score with the Latino/Asian voters. Nonetheless, even if Sanders were to win these states, it will not be by huge margins. This will allow Hillary to win close to the same number of delegates as him. Just like Obama did in 2008.

“You are a Hillary supporter!”

I was. Back in 2008 I was an ardent Hillary supporter, and I was butt-hurt when she lost to Obama. But something that I was able to learn from the last election was how the Democratic primaries work. I was able to understand that Obama intentionally built a coalition based on math and not so much on states. Today we are seeing the same strategy played out — Hillary created a much stronger firewall than Obama did in the Southern states — which has given her a foundation to win the nomination.

If it was solely up to me I would vote for Bernie. I like the guy, I’ve donated to his campaign, and I support politicians who stand firm on the same values that i stand on. Yes! I’ve become more progressive!

But you cannot deny when the math is pretty self-explanatory.

This is why I think Bernie should continue to stay in the race, continue to put pressure on Hillary to be more progressive and less moderate, but at some point in the next three months we need to unite against the real enemy — Mr. Donald Drumpf.

I know… “you hate Hillary!” You cannot stand the fact that she will be our nominee. Well not everything is perfect, and she has done a pretty remarkable job of following the same play book Obama did back in 2o08.

So to all my Bernie supporters you have the next three months to grieve, scream, cry, and curse at Hillary, go through the whole 5 stage process of acceptances. And then let’s put all of our energy into defeating the Republican Party and their xenophonic-racist-bigotted-homophobic-misogynistic-fascist soon to be nominee.

ps.. I didn’t even mention the super-delegates mostly because I think Hillary will get to the magic number of 2,308 without their help.