The NFL Continuity Index: Part 2
Can past performance be a guarantee of future results in the NFL? Examining the continuity of the Falcons, Saints, Bucs, & Panthers.
If you haven’t already, check out Part 1 of the continuity index, which explains how continuity is measured for each team.
In Part 1, we saw that the NFC West is a division of haves and have-nots when it comes to continuity. In Part 2 the NFC South is under the microscope, and its more like a division of aggressive mediocrity. Here are the continuity totals for each NFC South team:
Saints 70.1 out of 100
Panthers 66 out of 100
Bucs 56.9 out of 100
Falcons 56.3 out of 100
Here is the team-by-team breakdown and analysis of each team’s situation:
New Orleans Saints: 70.1% Continuity
Coaches: (Years completed in position) Sean Payton HC & Playcaller (3+ Years) Pete Carmichael OC (3+ Years) Dennis Allen DC (2 Years) Continuity Score: 17.8 out of 20
QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Drew Brees (3+Years & in System) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20
Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “Base 43 ” (2 Years) Continuity Score: 13.3 out of 20
Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (1) two-year starters: (2) one-year starters: (0) first year starter or position battle: (2) Continuity Score: 3.3 out of 10
Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (2) two-year starters: (4) one-year starters: (3) first year starter or position battle: (3) Continuity Score: 5 out of 11
Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Mark Ingram (Position Battle) Leading Receiver: Michael Thomas (1 Year) Continuity Score: 1.6 out of 10
Front Office: Mickey Loomis GM (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9
Analysis:
Based on the collective time that Drew Brees and Sean Payton have had together, it would have been fair to assume that the Saints have one of the best continuity ratings in the NFL. This isn’t the case at all though, as they only rate 8th out of 16 NFC teams. Here is our first instance where diving into roster changes really penalizes a team, as most of the Saints deductions come from their revolving door of personnel. They have 2 new starters on the offensive line, 6 out of 11 new or one-year starters on defense, a new #1 receiver, and they added Adrian Peterson in an as-of-yet undefined role. As much as Brees and Payton add a lot of stability and continuity to this team, almost everyone else on the field takes it away. That gives the Saints a degree of predictability, but not enough for you to trust that what you saw in previous years is what you will get in 2017 even if Drew Brees has yet another 5,000 yard passing season.
While Brees has been one of the safest bets in all of fantasy football for many years, there are some things to be unsure about. I like Michael Thomas a lot, but if you want him you’re going to have to draft him pretty early, probably over some more established WRs. Is he worth what his price will be? And as good as Adrian Peterson is, how will they use him? The Saints still have Mark Ingram, and they drafted one of the best pass-catching backs in the draft in Alvin Kamara. You can almost count on AP being drafted two rounds too high just on his name alone- but still, he’s Adrian Peterson, which means I’m not going to count him out. And if Adrian Peterson becomes ADRIAN PETERSON, will the Saints rely more on the run? Does that mean Brees might not have a prolific passing season after all? So there are reasons to think twice if you’re expecting a typical Saints season this year.
Carolina Panthers: 66% Continuity
Coaches: (Years completed in position) Ron Rivera HC (3+ Years) Mike Shula OC (3+ Years) Steve Wilks DC (First Year) Continuity Score: 13.3 out of 20
QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Cam Newton (3+ Years, Both) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20
Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “Base 4–3” (3+ Years) Steve Wilks DC (3+ Years in System, 1st playcalling) Continuity Score: 15 out of 20
Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (3) two-year starters: (0) one-year starters: (0) first year starter or position battle: (2) Continuity Score: 6 out of 10
Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (5) two-year starters: (2) one-year starters: (1) first year starter or position battle: (3) Continuity Score: 6.6 out of 11
Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher (Projected): Christian McCaffrey (Position Battle) Leading Receiver: Kelvin Benjamin (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 5 out of 10
Front Office: Dave Gettleman GM (FIRED) Continuity Score: 0 out of 9
Analysis:
The Panthers would have had the best continuity score in the division had they not just fired their GM Dave Gettleman this past week. Now I’m not in their locker room and I have no clue how he personally interacted with others, but strictly from a player personnel standpoint, I don’t see any reason for his dismissal. The Panthers are a well run team that has consistently drafted well and has made shrewd signings. Yes, they had a miserable 2016, but I wouldn’t blame only the front office for that. (My guess is we will soon find out that the differences that led to Gettleman’s firing was more philosophical than performance-based.)
Offensively, everything hinges on the health of Cam Newton- without him, the entire offense runs differently. In my opinion Cam represents the biggest one-man difference of any player in the NFL. As big a drop-off as it might be for the Packers to play without Aaron Rodgers, for the Panthers to play without Cam, they have a similar drop-off coupled with throwing out most of their playbook as well. One thing I am concerned about for this year is that Cam plays in every game, but isn’t his usual “Superman” because he isn’t 100%. (If you need an example of this, just look at what Russell Wilson did last year.) Skill position wise, I’m excited to see Christian McCaffrey in action- I believe he is a better runner than most people give him credit for. And remember when I said that Alvin Kamara is one of the best pass-catching backs in the draft? Well McCaffrey is the best- and not just in this draft, but maybe the best pass-catching prospect out of the backfield OF ALL TIME. High praise I know, but I can’t think of a back who ever looked better catching the ball than he did at the combine this year. Don’t just take my word for it though- see for yourself.
It’s not surprising that the son of long-time NFL WR Ed McCaffrey would know a thing or two about catching a football, is it? I am very bullish on Christian this year, and I hope the Panthers do everything they can to give this kid the ball and let him work his magic in space. (As an aside, I really thought McCaffrey should have been picked 3rd overall by the 49ers- they needed his skill set far more than they need Solomon Thomas’s. This is not an insult to Thomas, who was a top 5 player in the draft in his own right- its just the Niners are in desperate need of explosive skill position players, and McCaffrey could have filled the “Tevin Coleman” role that made the Falcons-now-49ers offense so dangerous last year.) The injection of McCaffrey and fellow hybrid RB/WR Curtis Samuel (as well as a potential change in philosophy to help protect Cam from taking too many hits) should give the Panthers’ offense a different look and feel in 2017.
Much like the offense, the Panthers defensive also hinges on the health of a superstar, as it is devastating for this team if Luke Kuechly isn’t on the field. Captain, backbone, tone-setter- you can call him any and all of those things. I really hope he has his concussion woes behind him- but he has missed nine games in the past two seasons due to them. And since he’s on record saying that he has no intention of changing the way he plays, this should be a very concerning if you are betting on a big bounce-back year for the Panthers. So if he stays healthy while playing at the same level- and he is the best MLB in football- then I love the Panthers’ chances of returning deep into the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 57.9% Continuity
Coaches: (Years completed in position) Dirk Koetter HC & Playcaller (1 Year) Todd Monken OC (1 Year) Mike Smith DC (1 Year) Continuity Score: 6.6 out of 20
QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Jameis Winston (2 Years & in System) Continuity Score: 13.3 out of 20
Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “Base 43” (1 Year) Continuity Score: 6.6 out of 20
Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (1) two-year starters: (3) one-year starters: (1) first year starter or position battle: (0) Continuity Score: 6.3 out of 10
Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (3) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: (4) first year starter or position battle: (3) Continuity Score: 5 out of 11
Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Doug Martin (3+ Years) Leading Receiver: Mike Evans (3 Years) Continuity Score: 10 out of 10
Front Office: Jason Licht GM (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9
Analysis:
The Bucs are about one year away from skyrocketing up the continuity rankings, but in 2017 their score is on the low end. This is an up-and-coming team in perhaps the most competitive division, which also includes the last two Super Bowl participants from the NFC. From a QB standpoint, no division has as much continuity, with Jameis being the “baby” of the four with only two years as a starter- and what a two years they have been. The only reason we aren’t talking about Jameis being on pace to be one of the best all time is because virtually every QB is now passing at a historical level. (To put it in perspective- Kirk Cousins had the 15th most passing yards in NFL history last year (4,917)- but it was only good for 3rd most in 2016.) Everything about the Bucs offense leads me to believe that the arrow is pointing up for them. Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, now O.J. Howard (how he fell to the 19th pick is still beyond me)- this team could be scary-good on offense, which makes this division have the potential for four scary-good offenses, all in their own way. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some shootouts in NFC South divisional games this year.
Defensively is where you saw the real jump in this team last year, as they have drafted a nice core group to go along with pro bowlers Gerald McCoy and Lavante David. There is every reason to believe that this group will only continue to improve in the 2nd year with Mike Smith as DC, and I would consider last year’s results to be fairly indicative of what 2017’s defense will bring.
Fantasy wise, I love the thought of stealing Jameis at around the 10th QB selected, but his added weapons do make me hesitate to go all-in with Mike Evans. If you want him you will probably have to pick him in the top half of the first round of your draft, but like we’ve seen with Julio Jones, once a team surrounds a star receiver with other weapons, that can have games where the star disappears. So just be mindful, and in general try not to get carried away when expecting a consistent fantasy performer to repeat his production when his team no longer needs the same production from him as in the past in order to win games.
Atlanta Falcons: 56.3 % Continuity
Coaches: (Years completed in position) Dan Quinn HC (2 Years) Raheem Morris Asst. HC (1 Year) Steve Sarkisian OC (First Year) Marquand Manuel DC (First Year) Continuity Score: 5 out of 20
QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Matt Ryan (3+ Years, First in System) Continuity Score: 10 out of 20
Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “4–3 Cover 3” (Year 2) Marquand Manuel DC/Dan Quinn playcalling (Both 2 Years in System) Continuity Score: 13.3 out of 20
Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (2) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: (1) first year starter or position battle: (1) Continuity Score: 5 out of 10
Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (2) two-year starters: (4) one-year starters: (3) first year starter or position battle: (2) Continuity Score: 5.6 out of 11
Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher: Devonta Freeman (2 Years) Leading Receiver: Julio Jones (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 8.3 out of 10
Front Office: Thomas Dimitroff GM (3+ years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9
Analysis:
The Falcons’ score is pulled down mainly due to the upcoming unpredictability of the Steve Sarkisian era. Again, this is a continuity rating, not a direct indictment of him as a coordinator. While we don’t know exactly what the Falcons will look like on offense, I will go out on a limb and say that Julio Jones will still be very ok at football. Their offensive personnel is almost solely intact from last year’s record-breaking season- so will Sarkisian want to tinker, or not break what isn’t broken? That big “we’ll see” is what kills their continuity for now- but I would make a major revision upward if the offense is run the same from last season. Frankly, they’d be idiots to change many things. If they do go in a different direction, it wouldn’t be the first time a coach came onto a team and wanted to do things his way. In the least I assume that the terminology will change under Sarkisian, so at a bare minimum the offense will have to deal with a certain amount of a learning curve.
The Falcons have a very young defensive unit that quietly played above expectations last season. I have every reason to believe this defense is on the rise- but unfortunately their youth is not going to give them a great continuity score this year. Even though this season they have a brand new DC, and head coach Dan Quinn will call the plays for the first time with the Falcons (He used to call plays as DC for the Seahawks), their defense shouldn’t look too much different from last year.
I think a lot of the Falcons’ recent success is due to how well the front office has performed, as theirs is one of the best in football. The Falcons really killed the 2016 draft, and wouldn’t have made the Super Bowl without key rookie contributors on defense, never mind how good the offense was. My one concern is, if the offense isn’t performing the same, or they suffer from a Super Bowl hangover, will their problems compound? This is a team that is built to play from ahead on defense. If the offense isn’t the same, I worry how that would impact a team that is designed to rush the passer and cover with their linebackers. Lining up against Adrian Peterson, down 4 with 3 minutes to go sounds like a sub-optimal situation for them with their current personnel. However, I do love the Dontari Poe signing (I don’t understand why KC let him walk) and his presence should mitigate things. This is a reason why continuity for a front office is taken into consideration- a good front office will tend to have a knack for anticipating problems that lie ahead. The Falcons FO deserves a lot of credit for the team’s current success.
From a fantasy perspective, anyone who watches the Falcons offense knows that Matt Ryan likes to spread it around- he is perfectly content to dump it to the open guy if a team is determined to take Julio Jones away. This is great for winning games, but can lead to a few disappointing weeks for Julio owners. (Fortunately, he does have two games against the Panthers to make up for any duds along the way.) While you are going to have to pay a premium for Julio or Devonta Freeman, I like the value of Austin Hooper and Tevin Coleman better. I’m sold on Austin Hooper being an emerging part of this offense, and Coleman causing mismatches in the passing game underneath while Julio commands so much attention is one of the main reasons why the Falcons’ offense was unstoppable at times last year. I just hope Sarkisian wants to keep the offense in tact as much as I do.
Next up is Part 3 which will cover the NFC North, so be sure to follow me on twitter as I tweet out links to new posts as soon as they are published. Thanks for the response so far- if you have any questions or comments I would love to hear from you. If you’re entertaining enough, I will include you in a future post, and if you aren’t sure what “entertaining enough” means, here’s a good example of what not to do.
