The NFL Continuity Index: Part 8

Can past performance be a guarantee of future results in the NFL? Examining the continuity of the AFC West.

Please refer to previous parts of this series for more info about continuity. Part 1 of the Continuity Index explains how continuity is measured and examines the NFC West. Part 2 covers the NFC South, Part 3 covers the NFC North, Part 4 examines the NFC East, Part 5 examines the AFC North, Part 6 examines the AFC South, and Part 7 covers the AFC East.

The final division profiled on the continuity index is the AFC West. Here are the continuity totals for each team:

Chiefs 74.5 out of 100
Raiders 60.6 out of 100
Broncos 58.2 out of 100
Chargers 48.7 out of 100

And here is an in-depth breakdown and analysis of each team:

Kansas City Chiefs: 74.5% Continuity

Coaches: (Years completed in position) Andy Reid HC (3+ Years) Brad Childress Asst HC (3+ years) Matt Nagy OC (1 Year) Bob Sutton DC (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 16.6 out of 20

QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Alex Smith (3+ Years & in System) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20

Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) Base 3–4 (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20

Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (2) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: (2) first year starter or position battle: (0) Continuity Score: 6.6 out of 10

Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (5) two-year starters: (4) one-year starters: (1) first year starter or position battle: (1) Continuity Score: 8 out of 11

Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Spencer Ware/Kareem Hunt (Position Battle) Leading Receiver: Travis Kelce/Tyreek Hill (3+ Years/1 Year) Continuity Score: 3.3 out of 10

Front Office: Brett Veach (First Year) Continuity Score: 0 out of 9

Analysis:

There’s good news and bad news about the above-average continuity that the Chiefs have. The good news is, the Chiefs have a lot of predictability. The bad news is, the Chiefs have a lot of predictability.

With coaching and schemes intact from the previous 3 years, and with Alex Smith still at the helm (for now), I’d expect the 2017 Chiefs’ games to look a lot similar to the previous few years. The only thing that has been historically difficult to predict is turnovers, and the Chiefs were #1 at forcing them last year- there’s no way they would have gotten as far as they did without it, and likely the reason they lost to the Steelers is that they had more turnovers than their opponent and couldn’t stop them from getting into scoring range.

The takeaway from this? The Chiefs can only really beat teams when their opponents beat themselves. (That might be a little harsh, but so is the Chiefs’ track record of winning playoff games.) No wonder they have been stymied in the divisional round the last couple of years- because while bad teams routinely beat themselves in the NFL, good teams (like their first 2017 opponent, the Patriots) hardly ever do. Short of Alex Smith being replaced mid-season like what happened with his 2012 49ers, it’s hard not to see more of the same for the Chiefs in 2017.

Oakland Raiders: 60.6% Continuity

Coaches: (Years completed in position) Jack Del Rio HC (2 Years) Todd Downing OC (First Year), Ken Norton Jr. DC (2 Years) Continuity Score: 8.8 out of 20

QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Derek Carr (3 Years and 2 in System) Continuity Score: 16.6 out of 20

Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) Base 4–3 (2 Years) Continuity Score: 13.3 out of 20

Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (1) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: (2) first year starter or position battle: (1) Continuity Score: 4.6 out of 10

Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (2) two-year starters: (2) one-year starters: (5) first year starter or position battle: (2) Continuity Score: 5 out of 11

Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Marshawn Lynch (First Year) Leading Receiver: Amari Cooper (2 Years) Continuity Score: 3.3 out of 10

Front Office: Reggie McKenzie GM (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9

Analysis:

Everything seems to be in place for the Raiders to take a leap in 2017, except that continuity from previous years is not as much as you might think. First, the defense is still mainly rebuilding, comprised mostly of one year or first year starters, and second, the core offensive nucleus is still coming together, having added a few important pieces just this year in Cook and Lynch. However, part of measuring continuity is seeing how it is applied, which is why the quarterback/coach relationship is such an integral part. The Raiders have all the makings of a good pair in Del Rio and Carr, which makes building new pieces around them a little less problematic, as the leadership is there to keep everything in place for implementing their system and a championship culture- a “commitment to excellence” if you will.

Considering the Raiders have the reigning defensive MVP surrounded by burgeoning talent on defense, and an emerging star at QB surrounded by a lot of established offensive talent, this means they have one of the only “puncher’s chance” of beating the Patriots that I see in the conference. (Another team in the AFC West does too- keep reading to find out.) However, in my mind they are one year, and maybe one piece away from being a legitimate equal threat with the Pats to win the AFC. That may sound like I am down on them a little, but trust me, that is actually quite a compliment. The 2017 Raiders have a “Dallas Cowboys cicra 1992” feel to them, all the way down to being the upstart team that hasn’t won anything, up against a bonafide dynasty from the other coast that they’d have to beat to reach the Superbowl. So yes, I am saying everything goes right for this team, the sky’s the limit.

Denver Broncos: 58.2% Continuity

Coaches: (Years completed in position) Vance Joseph HC (First Year) Mike McCoy OC (First Year) Joe Woods DC (First Year) Continuity Score: 0 out of 20

QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Trevor Siemian (2 Years & First Year in System) Continuity Score: 6.6 out of 20

Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) Base 3–4 (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20

Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (2) two-year starters: (0) one-year starters: (0) first year starter or position battle: (3) Continuity Score: 4 out of 10

Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (7) two-year starters: (2) one-year starters: (1) first year starter or position battle: (1) Continuity Score: 8.6 out of 11

Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher: CJ Andersen (3+ Years) Leading Receiver: Demaryius Thomas (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 10 out of 10

Front Office: John Elway GM (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9

Analysis:

Denver is probably in a continuity category all of it’s own. On one hand they have a brand new head coach, which brings along with him his own philosophies and style, then then bring back an old offensive coordinator, so players like Demaryius Thomas who have been in Denver a while will be very familiar with the plays and terminology, and then they promoted their DB coach to DC, and while he is a first time defensive coordinator and playcaller, the defense is all but assured to look very similar. So this is about as mixed a bag as you are going to get when trying to measure continuity- I think the Broncos just broke my metric!

In all, this is nothing but good news for Denver’s defense, which arguably has the best secondary and best pure pass rusher in football, which is a lethal combination. If Shane Ray can step into the Demarcus Ware role opposite of Von Miller, then the defense really will look about the same from 2016. If Ray struggles, then opponents will focus entirely on neutralizing Miller- and if the pass rush struggles, then that will have a residual impact on the secondary’s effectiveness as well. So you could make the case that Shane Ray just became the most important guy on this team, and I don’t know if that’s a good thing or not. While Ray has flashed and has the pedigree, he also hasn’t been able to stay healthy, so that would worry me if I were a Broncos fan a little.

On the offensive side, going with Trevor Siemian at QB is a good one from a continuity standpoint. I don’t think he’s a bad QB either- he’s got a lot of AlexSmithian qualities to his game, and as long as you’re not asking him to throw 50 times and win the game single-handedly, then the Broncos will remain a tough out with him in charge. I just don’t see how far they can go, even if they were to make the playoffs. This team bears a lot of similarities to the Chiefs, except right now I think the Chiefs are just the slightly better team. Couple that with the very high ceiling the Raiders seem to have, and that’s a steep mountain for the Broncos to climb, never mind having Pittsburgh or New England in the way as well. Oh, and we haven’t even mentioned the Chargers yet. Speaking of which…

Los Angeles Chargers: 48.7% Continuity

Coaches: (Years completed in position) Anthony Lynn HC (First Year) Ken Whisenhunt OC (1 Year) Gus Bradley DC (First Year) Continuity Score: 2.2 out of 20

QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Philip Rivers (3+ years, 3 in system) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20

Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) Base 4–3 (first year) Continuity Score: 0 out of 20

Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (0) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: (2) first year starter or position battle: (2) Continuity Score: 2.6 out of 10

Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (4) two-year starters: (3) one-year starters: (2) first year starter or position battle: (2) Continuity Score: 6.6 out of 11

Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher: Melvin Gordon (2 Years) Leading Receiver: Keenan Allen (3+Years) Continuity Score: 8.3 out of 10

Front Office: Tom Telesco (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9

Analysis:

Remember when I said the Broncos were in a continuity category all their own? Well I spoke too soon, because the Chargers are in an almost identical situation. Where the Broncos have a new head coach but retained their old defensive system, the Chargers have a new head coach but retained their old offensive system. Then when taking into consideration that Philip Rivers is showing no signs of decline, that makes me like the Chargers’ situation just a tick better than the Broncos. Frankly, this is a tough division to predict. It’s not impossible that every team finishes .500 or better, but by beating each other up during the regular season, whoever emerges the winner will have to take the tough road through the playoffs, while the Patriots, on top of being the best run organization, have the benefit of playing teams like the Jets and Bills for a 1/4 of their schedule. It’s almost not fair! Someone needs to remind Woody Johnson that their tanking is only giving the Patriots and easier path to another championship.

What makes me like the Chargers better is that their defense is quietly becoming one of the better ones in the NFL. They can rush the passer from the edge or the interior, and have a ball-hawking secondary. Add the fact that there is no concern at quarterback, running back, tight end or wide receiver, and if they can just be average instead of horrible in one-score games, then I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chargers made the playoffs. So remember when I said there was another AFC West team with a puncher’s chance of beating the Patriots? Well it’s not the Broncos or Chiefs, it’s the Chargers. First, Rivers is one of just a few QBs that could go into Foxborough and not feel overwhelmed- in fact, I think he would revel in the challenge. Second, the Chargers (when healthy) have the horses to keep up with the Patriots if it’s a shootout, or have the running game to grind out the clock. (Cut away to Falcons fans now muttering obscenities under their breath at the thought of this.) If anyone has the ability to be a worst-to-first team, my money is going to be on the Chargers. And in case you are wondering, here is the AFC West division odds for just such a bet: (odds via 5Dimes.com as of 8/24/17)

The Chargers are now ahead of the Broncos at +345. That’s still a very tempting number- then again, you could make the case for any of these teams at these odds. (I suggest shopping around though, as 5Dimes is known to have sharper odds than most.) This is a excellent baseline for where the books see the division playing out, and the Chargers are not considered the worst team anymore. So if you see the Chargers at +400 or better, I have no problem jumping all over it. And remember, all my bet recommendations are 100% guaranteed- If you don’t win, then I will refund you all the money you gave me to recommend picks for you. You can’t beat that deal!

Next is the final installment of the continuity index, I compare all the teams together to see what we learned from all this, and what practical applications there might be to this index- so if you read the first 8 parts already you won’t want to miss that. Please follow me on twitter as I tweet out links to all my new Medium posts, and feel free contact me with your thoughts. Catch up on the previous 7 installments of the continuity index by clicking here. And finally, if you do decide to bet the Chargers to win the division and it doesn’t work out, please file all your formal complaints by clicking here, and your concerns will be met promptly by someone who will respond to you as best they can. Unfortunately that’s not saying much.

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Alex Brigandi- The Stats Guy

Written by

Las Vegas based STATS LLC reporter. I create unique stats focused on sports betting & fantasy. NFL-centric. Opinions are solely my own, especially if I’m right.

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