The NFL Midseason: A War of Attrition
Everyone notices when a QB goes down, but when a key defensive player is hurt it can be just as impactful.
On Thursday news broke that rookie sensation DeShaun Watson tore his ACL on a routine play in practice, and the shockwaves reverberated immediately. ESPN led with wall-to-wall coverage, the line for this weekend’s Texans-Colts game was pulled down, and everyone who had Watson on their fantasy team cried out in pain like they tore their ACL themselves.
Now around the same time as Watson’s injury, it was also reported that Seahawks all-world safety Earl Thomas will miss this weekend’s game because he pulled his hamstring. This report received little to no fanfare in comparison. (The line for the Seahawks-Redskins didn’t even move past the key number!) Now granted, Earl’s injury is not season-ending for him, but I felt it was interesting to note that a “proximity bias” of sorts is at play here. Whether it has to do with the prevalence of fantasy football, how we keep and care about statistics, or that the offense just handles the ball more often, the public seems to care more about offensive players and how they impact games than defensive players.
I believe this bias plays itself out in the betting lines, and could be taken advantage of if you’re paying attention. In fact, we have seen a handful of key defensive players miss some time recently, and their impact on the field was dramatic. In the sportsbook? Not so much. Had you been on these cases, you could have made a lot of money and been playing a contrarian position as well.
Case 1: Luke Kuechly
Here is an excellent example of how a single defensive player can impact a team. In week 5, the 4–1 Panthers led the-also 4–1 Eagles (and now the NFL’s best team) 10–3 late in the 2nd quarter when they lost Kuechly to a concussion for the rest of the game. From that point on the Panthers ended up being outscored 25–13. The following week, with Kuechly still out, they lost again in a terrible performance against the Bears. So did the betting public pick up on Kuechly’s absence and pounce on the Bears? The line movement didn’t indicate anything like that happening at all. Luckily for the Panthers, Kuechly returned the next week, and like magic they were back on track, beating the Bucs in a dominating defensive performance.
This isn’t a coincidence. Obviously Kuechly’s accolades speak for themselves. However, you might want to listen to a guy by the name of Bill Belichick (Perhaps you’ve heard of him?) tell you how important Kuechly is to the Panthers:
Kuechly’s concussion history unfortunately makes his missing more games a very real possibility, so keep this in mind. The Panthers are clearly not the same team without him, and the betting public didn’t really catch on to that the first time he was out.
Case 2: Earl Thomas
As I mentioned earlier, Earl Thomas will miss this week’s game against the Redskins. Earl Thomas to me is as important to the Seahawks as Russell Wilson. Simply put, no one can really do what he does as their center fielder, and when he was out at the end of last season their defense can’t function the same and started to fall apart. Now the Seahawks are saying all the right things in the leadup to the game Sunday, like they are prepared, they can handle him being out, etc. but I’m not convinced. Even though Washington is pretty banged up themselves, Kirk Cousins is more than capable of putting up points. Yes, it’s always scary to bet against the Seahawks in Seattle, but you can’t expect to replace the best safety in football and not have a drop off of some kind. Considering the line should’ve moved down but is still Seahawks -7.5, take the points for Washington, as you’re basically getting the same line that you would have gotten if Earl were playing. That’s the type of mistake you should be taking advantage of.
Case 3: Vontaze Burfict
Vontaze Burfict is the closest thing we have in the NFL to a WWE villain right now. The secret to Vontaze Burfict’s success is best summed up in a Confucian riddle: Is it his attitude that makes him great, or does being great give him his attitude? Either way, he’s a hell of a player that brings a toughness and a swagger to the Bengals- maybe too much swagger at times. Speaking of which, you might have missed Burfict up to his old tricks off the field last week, as he shoved someone on the Colts sideline after a play:
When he was suspended for two games at the start of the season, the Bengals played perhaps two of the worst games they’ve played in the Andy Dalton era. Was it all due to Burfict being out? Of course not- but it also was a clear factor. Maybe it’s how well he anticipates plays, or his energy, or his nastiness, but Burfict is someone who’s very hard to replicate when he’s gone.
Now I love how Vontaze plays. ON THE FIELD. The stupid off the field stuff? Not so much. Keep an eye on this shoving incident and him in general. It didn’t get much publicity so I assume it will blow over, but considering his track record, if the NFL wanted to suspend him again, they have a case to do so, as fighting with non-player personnel is a big no-no.
Whether or not anything comes of this incident, one thing we can count on with V is that it’s only a matter off time before he pops off again- either that or the reckless abandon he plays with will get him injured. If either occurs, take yourself back to how bad the Bengals played without him earlier this year. And as bad as the Bengals played week 1, they actually became a bigger favorite as their week 2 game approached only to stink it up again, this time on a nationally televised game. Bettors clearly didn’t seem to care one bit that Burfict wasn’t playing, but they should have. Such is the life of the heel.
Case 4: Brandon Williams
You can be forgiven if you don’t know much about Brandon Williams. First, his name is so ordinary that he’s actually one of three players currently named “Brandon Williams” in the NFL. Then he toils in obscurity as a nose tackle, not racking up glamour stats. Brandon is invaluable for the Ravens though, and I can prove it.
Brandon has played in 4 games this year and has missed 4 games this year.
In the four games he’s missed, the Ravens are 1–3 and have given up 28.5 PPG and 169.5 YPG on the ground.
In the four games he’s played, the Ravens are 3–1 and have given up only 8.5 PPG and 96 YPG on the ground. (This includes two shutouts.)
Everything the Ravens want to do defensively starts with Brandon Williams. Plugging the running game effectively allows the Ravens to put their opponents in 3rd and long, and that’s when their exotic blitz packages can be implemented. Not stopping the run means they’re routinely in 3rd and short instead of long, which means the Ravens can’t use their blitz packages since their opponent can run the ball to get a first down. This is the fundamental reason why they lost to both Jacksonville and Chicago: Both teams just ran right over them without Brandon in the middle. Hopefully for the Ravens sake, Brandon stays healthy the rest of the season- but if he’s out again, now you know how to react.
Interestingly enough, perhaps the best defensive player in the NFL has missed a significant amount of time in the last two years, but doesn’t make the list. Of course I’m talking about J.J. Watt. Why hasn’t the Texans defense been impacted as much as the others on the list? It could have something to do with Houston’s depth, and that Houston has a replacement for Watt’s production in Jadeveon Clowney.
That’s the key: Teams that adequately replace their injured starters tend to be the ones that make the playoffs every year. The next-man-up factor is strong in New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Kansas City, so it’s no surprise each team makes the playoff virtually every year.
For the players listed here, they are either so good that they can’t be replicated (Earl Thomas, Luke Kuechly) or they play a crucial role on the team that no one else can do (Vontaze Burfict, Brandon Williams). There are definitely others I considered: Honorable mentions go out to Harrison Smith, Josh Norman, and Aaron Donald. These three players have been excellent this year, but the amount of games they missed weren’t enough for them to be included.
The four cases I did include provide evidence of how valuable each player was to their team for one reason: each player was absent enough to be able to see the impact their void left on their team. Of course if Von Miller or Patrick Peterson or Khalil Mack, etc. missed time, that would greatly impact their team as well: They just haven’t missed games recently for us to find out for sure- and they hopefully never will.
Alex Brigandi has been a in-game reporter with STATS LLC since 2002 and has analyzed the NFL from a betting perspective in Las Vegas since 2007. You can contact him on twitter with any questions, comments, or syndication requests.
