I think all political predictions are currently a waste of time. Donald Trump represents a singularity in American politics. In physics, the singularity of a black hole is where otherwise predictable forces like gravity stop working the same way. We can’t make accurate predictions beyond that point.
For better or worse, the standard rules and norms of American politics no longer apply. We can talk about Trump behaving more like a traditional politician or being a political maverick, but at this point, we really don’t know what he’s going to be. So any attempt at prediction that’s based on a historical understanding of the presidency stands a good chance of being wrong.
Our only way forward is for both parties to really decide what a prosperous and free America looks like and watch like hawks for anything that encroaches on that vision. We need to be prepared to resist policies that disenfranchise citizens, threaten global relationships or further entrench moneyed interests.
I think there will be plenty to resist in the next few years, both for liberals and fiscal conservatives that haven’t bought into the hype. All of the hand wringing of the moment isn’t doing anything but creating noise. We need to be preparing for a long fight.