The Atlanticists are maliciously intent on fracturing Europe
Who are the Atlanticists, what role are they playing in fuelling the Ukraine conflict, and why will Putin go no further into Western Ukraine?
Whatever the politics of Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, his refusal to endorse the €50 billion aid package for Ukraine at the December 2023 EU Summit, and his complete turnaround one month later, has done nothing to alter the conflict with Russia.
In fact, the fighting has intensified on a vicious like-for-like basis, alongside emerging declarations of full-scale conventional and even nuclear war between NATO and Russia.
The West knows that President Putin cannot be defeated and has all but won this war as he continues to consolidate Russia’s position in Eastern Ukraine, additionally ensuring secure access to the Black Sea.
Putin’s forces have further been operating in ‘friendly territory’ and could never have made the strides they have in hostile Western Ukraine or anywhere else in Europe.
This is where Russian expansionism ceases.
Despite much posturing in Western media and accompanying political rhetoric, Russia has neither the interest or capacity to annex the whole of the Ukraine, or become a bigger threat to Europe.
However, Putin’s global position has become stronger than ever, a point underlined by the signing of an arms and economic pact with India on 27th December, 2023.
Despite this, and with a question mark hanging over future UK aid for Ukraine, the European Atlanticists have continued to push for war, which can only result in one outcome — deep fractures across and endangerment of Europe.
Who are the Atlanticists?
The Atlanticists are given scant attention in the mainstream media but Ursula Van der Leyn, European Commission President, and Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor, are the glaringly visible tip of the Atlanticists’ iceberg.
Beneath this is a long-standing social, economic and political movement stretching back over 70 years.
Atlanticism emerged after World War II to defend and promote democracy in Europe. Having survived two global conflicts and not wishing to experience a third, Western European nations sought security guarantees from the US against the emerging Soviet threat.
The signing of the North Atlantic Treaty in 1949 established NATO as the collective defence capability of Europe.
Since then, European countries have relied on the US security umbrella and have progressively established strong economic, political and security ties with Washington.
In so doing Europe has progressively adopted the economic structure of the US while NATO has played a crucial role in favourably shaping a pro-US geo-political and economic landscape throughout the European region.
And yet, instead of acting as a binding force, the Atlanticists, NATO and the US have broken the unity and effectiveness of the alliance through their continued push for the Ukraine war.
Accusations of Putin’s expansionism into the Ukraine and potentially beyond into Europe have risen from his efforts to ensure that NATO’s declared intent to ‘export democracy East’ cannot be realised.
Irrespective of the substantial investment and efforts of the US and NATO, Putin has ensured that NATO will proceed no further.
For every territorial gain made by NATO and the Ukraine, no matter how small, the advance has ultimately been rebuffed. Western media have glamourised initial onslaughts by President Zelensky and then… silence. There is rarely, if ever, reporting of the Ukrainians being forced back.
European Atlanticism today
A distinct lack of unity among NATO members is now clearly evident, regardless of the full-hearted support being offered for Sweden to join NATO in Summer 2024.
Despite the consolidation of Russian positions, casualties on both sides continue to increase. The Ukrainian attack on a Russian Black Sea warship in December was responded to in kind with a vicious retaliation on Kiev, Kharkiv and Dnipro, which in turn resulted in an attack on the Russian city of Belgorod and other vulnerable infrastructure.
There is no advantage to be gained from this senseless loss of life on both sides, other than US Neocons and Atlanticists attempting to establish no loss of face on their part.
For President of the European Commission, Ursula Van der Leyne; NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, and German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz — further robust military intervention is the only solution. This is the driving force behind the fervour to have the €50 billion aid package go through come-what-may.
Other EU and NATO members remain stoically quiet or are slowly leaning towards diplomatic means as the way forward. The Atlanticists’ ability to decisively establish a clear direction is progressively being undermined.
In turn, transatlantic relations are becoming increasingly strained.
Republican control of Congress has surfaced a distaste for both the Ukrainian war and a European unwillingness to accept greater responsibility for their own security.
What significance will NATO and the Ukraine continue to prove when the US is preoccupied with its own border security and the unprecedented and dangerously growing divide between Democrats and Republicans?
Doubts are being publicly voiced regarding the strength of the transatlantic bond and its capacity to act as the cornerstone for European security.
Rhetoric aplenty but little responsibility
There is pressure aplenty from Washington and former President Trump insisting that the EU must assume greater responsibility for the war and its funding.
This has made the Atlanticists more extreme than before and, despite all evidence to the contrary, their position is that the war must continue until victory is finally achieved, a victory which means winning back Eastern Ukraine from Russia.
In fact, the unification of Ukraine’s original territory is nigh on impossible.
The Eastern Ukrainians actively support the Russians in order to be protected from Zelenskyy and NATO. Before February 2022 Eastern Ukrainians were termed ‘separatists.’ For over 10 years they were bombed and shelled by Western Ukraine, leading to approximately 15,000 casualties. All this for striving to break away.
With the intervention of Russia, Eastern Ukraine has become militarised to a high professional standard.
In the unlikely event of a Russian withdrawal, civil war would ensue with protracted urban warfare. Eastern Ukrainians will only allow themselves to be a Russian protectorate, or become an independent state.
Despite this evident Eastern Ukrainian desire for separation from the West, the pressure from NATO and the European military complex is intensifying. Profits for the French, British and Germans arms industry have never been so excessive.
Not to be outdone, Brussels has weighed in by urgently advocating to enlarge European Community membership, accepting applications from the Ukraine and Moldova. Many in Europe have openly expressed doubts. Corruption, sex and drug trades, particularly from the Ukraine are raising deep concerns.
However, the classical European negotiating position of saying one thing while doing something entirely different abides.
If it were a full member, the Ukraine alone would swallow up two thirds of the common agricultural budget, and decimate family-owned small holding farming, particularly in France. The disproportionately large Ukrainian agricultural collectives would need to be discontinued and their shady parent oligarchs investigated for corruption.
This would likely be a step too far for Zelenskyy as these oligarchs are his central support base.
A further block to the Ukraine joining the EU is the gross underestimation of climate costs in order to maintain the charade that Europe is at the forefront of the globally responsible green movement.
Add to this the clamour from southern Mediterranean countries for an extensive investment in addressing the ongoing migration problem, and you have a mix of significant challenges facing Ukraine’s potential EU membership.
Europe in spiral
There is no doubt that Europe is in the midst of a social, economic and moral freefall.
Dictatorship in Brussels surpasses that of Kiev or Moscow. It is a small wonder that so many European nations now sway to the right. Self-determined, nationalist-driven governance and order is far preferable to that of Brussels.
Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy, and Geert Wilders, the Dutch conservative-liberal politician, lead the way in this respect. It is likely that they will be followed by Marie Le Pen of France.
In addition, the nationalist Catholic-conservative Vox in Spain is reshaping the politics of Valencia and other cities, while Finland and Sweden experience the impact of the far right through limited refugee quotas, reduced benefits for the disadvantaged, and making citizenship more difficult to attain.
Furthermore, the ‘Alternative für Deutschland’ is beginning to represent aspects of a horrific side of Europe we are coming to know and fear. Respect is being drowned out by xenophobic racism, recession and political fractures.
The trans-Atlantic relationship is likely to be stretched even further. The Europeans will not follow the US into a likely forthcoming trade war with China.
China needs proteins to feed its population. The greatest producers of protein are Brazil and Europe. The trade off will be manufacturing from China against food from Europe.
Governance in China has moved on apace. If nothing else, the Chinese will likely impose high standards of ethical farming making the inclusion of the Ukraine within the EU an impossibility.
Undermining the Atlanticists
Just to admit that the Ukraine war is lost would be a step forward. It would allow for meaningful diplomacy to square relations with Russia and re-establish NATO’s remit.
In order to stimulate economic and social enhancement, Europe has to accept that the Ukraine is neutral territory. Of itself this will stimulate wealth for the reconstruction of the Ukrainian state, benefitting all of Europe.
Continued military adventurism has no place in Europe’s immediate future.
A return to collective European social values addressing the humanitarian consequences of this unnecessary war will allow trust to surface, and a resilience on both the European and Russian side to shape a positive geopolitical reality.
But will this utopian ideal happen? Sadly, such a scenario is unlikely.
The Atlanticists will remain politically dominant for the foreseeable future. Despite the damage they have done talk in Brussels suggests that Ursula Van der Leyne will be awarded a second term of office, albeit in a ringfenced and more subdued mode.
Already doubts are being raised by prominent UK diplomats, such as Lord McDonald and Sir Peter Westmacott, as to the impact of a second Trump presidency and the damage this will do to UK interests.
Which interests might these be, other than the continued sale of arms around the world?
The much-touted concern of the Ukraine being left defenceless is once again being surfaced to deter any European doubters and to dissuade an unknowing public from supporting a new Trump term.
The real threat from China
The irony of all this is that the US and Russia would be ideal allies in confronting Chinese ambitions for world dominance. Instead, they are enemies, and China is being given an open pathway to determine a future global currency — the key to ultimate domination. If this were not bad enough, the disintegration of Europe continues apace.
So, what is the outcome of this Atlanticist obstinacy?
· Putin is more entrenched in Russia than ever before. He is heralded as the saviour of the nation by a majority of the country’s citizens.
· The Russian economy, particularly arms production, is substantially reconstructed and prospering.
· Sanctions have stimulated economic innovation and growth, and money is circulating.
· The restaurants in Moscow and St Petersburg are full, with reservations being required to secure a table.
What will bring the war to an end?
First, there is a stubbornly but steadily growing recognition that the Atlanticists are wrong. The futility of this conflict, and particularly the recognition of the erosion of Western transactional capital as a basis for a future global reserve currency, will lead to the Atlanticists being openly challenged.
Second, the possible re-election of Trump will likely put an end to this misery by halting the war and starving Europe of further military aid.
Whatever the personal and policy faults of Trump, on a global geopolitical basis his mind is clear. He has long argued that the real threat to western transactional capital is China.
‘Make America great’ will not only economically strengthen the US, but will win over global hearts and minds. When the world ‘gives permission’ for the Fed to shape the forthcoming global currency, America has won without military action.
Europe has instead unwisely chosen to work towards defending western institutions in a pursuit of which global order will predominate, through undermining their own interests in the process.
The Atlanticists continued fracturing of Europe could well emerge as its saviour. A Trump victory will jump start the Europeans into accepting full responsibility for their own economic, social and defence future and the senseless killing in the Ukraine will come to an end.
