Ukraine — the war is lost as fighting bitterly escalates

President Putin’s has consistently stated that NATO’s mission of exporting democracy will go no further eastwards.

Russian speaking Ukrainains are now better protected against such a threat, but this has come at a profound cost after Russia’s early campaign was disastrous.

Some 2,000 Russian tanks and other vehicles have been destroyed while Ukraine lost around 600 tanks, field artillery and vehicles.

To date, the human cost has been increasingly unbearable, with over 350,000 casualties on both sides and more than six million Ukrainians displaced.

It is little wonder that Yevgeny Prigozhin turned his Wagner forces against the out of touch military hierarchy in Moscow.

Recognising the value of Prigozhin, but unable to change the Siloviki (the Kremlin’s inner circle), President Putin placed the Wagner group out of the firing line by having them relocate to Belarus.

Now a revitalised Russian military appears to be turning the tide in its favour by defending the territory it has gained and cementing Eastern Ukraine into a new Russian border.

Despite commentary in predominantly western media, Russia has little to no capability for further military advancement in the Ukraine or Europe.

Little chance of advance or retreat

In reality the conflict has become entrenched with fighting not dissimilar to the First World War, but stretched out across a much longer battle front, with each side largely stuck and with minimal advance or retreat.

What hasn’t been reported quite as widely is that Ukraine’s hospitals and care facilities are overflowing with a mounting number of casualties.

The distaste for the war on both sides has resulted in a burgeoning black market, fuelled by illicit sales of arms, oil, human organs, and draft-dodging schemes.

There is an increased chance that a Russian soldier will be killed by a Russian bullet fired from a Ukrainian rifle. Equally, a Ukrainian troop could be killed by Ukrainian shells fired from Russian artillery.

Sadly, the fighting in Ukraine continues to escalate. Food has become weaponised and, in order for the resumed safe passage of Ukrainian grain, Russia is demanding an end to the restrictions placed on the Russian agricultural bank, agricultural machinery and parts, insurance arrangements, and on ammonia imports.

With no such concessions in sight, and with 44% of Ukrainian grain going West, it is Europe’s citizens who are the victims.

Russia and Chinese influence in Africa

To maintain favour with African states, President Putin promised free grain at the July 2023 St. Petersburg Africa Summit. The Europeans immediately countered that Russia will not honour its commitment.

However, Russia has, and most likely will continue to honour its promises to Africa, which is why the majority of the continent is under the influence of Russia and China. Flashpoints in Niger and Sudan are, in some quarters, claimed to be proxy wars between the US and Russia, with Russia being potentially preferred to European colonialists.

So, why is the destruction in Ukraine continuing?

The predominant western take on this subject is one of unbridled Russian aggression and a refusal to participate in global governmental norms. However, there is another argument to consider which involves the fulfilment of a Neocon dream of American global hegemony.

The motivation behind the latter position is that it is the only way the US Federal Reserve System can be protected.

The US state debt of $31 trillion, and private debt of more than $17 trillion has Neocons convinced that the greenback will ultimately collapse.

There is little surprise then that the August 2023 Saudi peace talks ended inconclusively. There was and is nothing significant left to negotiate.

The Western perspective is of an invasion of the Ukraine. Negotiations therefore can only focus on land gained or lost. The Russian viewpoint is that NATO has been halted in its tracks and the new Russian eastern Ukrainian border cannot be transgressed.

Following the Saudi talks, China’s declaration of neutrality and peace is more directed towards the West, with China explicitly stating that it will not be divided from Russia. With no prospect of a proactive gain for either side, further destruction is inevitable.

A second war being waged on the dollar

As the Ukraine war continues to escalate a second war is heating up, but this time it is a challenge to the world dominance of the dollar.

National currencies now pegged to the Chinese yuan include Argentina, Brazil, Saudi and Pakistan amongst others. Only four months ago 31 nations had de-dollarized and today this number stands at 71 countries.

Furthermore, the US still has 40% of the world under sanctions as Neocons are progressively undermining all aspects of American global influence. European political heads are fully aware of the consequences of following the Neocon agenda, and yet say and do nothing to the contrary.

Pro-American statements made by Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General NATO, don’t help. Similarly, Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President, continues to display her Neocon nature.

Both leaders are have proved to be prominent and influential in directing Europe toward ever greater possible catastrophe.

The third front emerging

While the Ukraine tragedy continues, brewing tensions in the South China Sea are, in reality, a preparation for war.

The semiconductor industry in Taiwan will shortly be moved wholesale to safe US and European locations as the seas around Taiwan become a steady display of Chinese and US naval strength.

Chinese military vessels are openly butting heads with their US and Philippine counterparts with one of the most concerning developments being the militarisation of Australia.

Australia now has extensive naval and fighter bases, supported by impressive American combat infantry. An unspoken, but likely placement of nuclear weapons would be a most unwelcome development.

With all of this expansive military capacity under US control, Australia could become the jumping-off point for future military initiatives against China.

A shining light of multiculturalism, diversity and peaceful relations with its neighbours, Australia is in danger of becoming something that to date has been unimaginable — an advanced military machine ready for rapid action against China.

Are there any solutions?

The Neocon geopolitical obsession with global hegemony endangers Ukraine by designating it as a site for a continued and seemingly endless war.

The disregard for life and suffering reinforces a conclusion of much greater conflict to come. After all, there is an interpretation that this is an American war with Russia being fought far away from American soil.

Many must feel there is little that can be practically done to exit such a quagmire.

Some reading this will automatically denounce it as ‘Russian propaganda,’ which would be misguided and incorrect. I have, worked with Ukrainians, Russians and people of many other nationalities over the course of an international career, which has helped inform this analysis.

The more informed we are, the more readily questions can be raised with world leaders about unwelcome realities.

Some conclusions and predictions from this:

· The Russians will continue to hit Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure and troops. Civilians are not being deliberately targeted, but will continually suffer as collateral damage. The Ukraine, like many other nations, has military sites within urban locations. Should Ukrainian counter-attacks go beyond what the Russians view is acceptable, the retaliation will be beyond vicious and the damage inflicted on Ukrainian grain storage facilities will be exemplified

· Business leaders, including Elon Musk, have clearly emphasised that the more the dollar is weaponised, the greater de-dollarisation will become as more nations peg their currency to China

· In the face of Australian militarisation, China’s response is likely to involve:

o Making their presence more evidently felt in the South China sea

o A rise in generous offers of Chinese trade and friendship. The Chinese already provide free health services to Pacific Islanders. Duties on Australian grain have been dropped and the Chinese now strongly favour Australia as a holiday destination

· As war in the Ukraine expands, so will covert ops — sponsored primarily by the US and UK. Assassinations, unexpected attacks on Russian operations by land and sea, and drone incursions into Russian cities and attacks on shipping will increase

· President Putin will return fire with venom. Romania is particularly vulnerable due to its strong security ties with the US. The Romanian population, skilled and well-informed, desire sound relations with their neighbours but have no wish to become a target

· The US 2024 elections are open to Trump regaining the presidency, despite his ongoing legal challenges. The return of ‘Make America great again’ and ‘take America back’ has distinct, and for some, unwelcome implications for home policy. However, in terms of foreign policy, a distinctly different picture would be evident. Trump publicly maintains a JFK-like position of ‘in the interests of the people.’ In doing so, he is a threat to the military industrial complex lobby clustered around the Fed.

· If Trump were to win, he would inadvertently pursue a strategy of championing the US as a global epicentre of innovation. From McDonalds and Hollywood, to advances in space technology, medicine and academia — citizens across the world are shaped by US markets and culture. Trump would also most likely revert to form and ‘take care for my people,’ meaning a withdrawal of military action in the Ukraine

· The more Jens Stoltenberg proclaims the virtue of NATO pursuing war, Ursula van der Leyen reaffirms her Neocon sentiments, and other European leaders remain silent — the more likely it is that further ‘undesired developments’ will occur.

Much of the way forward now lies with the US. One of the country’s greatest presidents, Thomas Jefferson, once urged for the greater education of American citizens. In 1818, he said: “To give to every citizen the information he needs… to understand his duties to his neighbours and country… to know his rights…”

People become more actively involved in voicing opinions about their leaders’ choices, and forcing action when they are better informed and can see the choices before them. This is the essence of democracy and at the present moment we need clear minds and reasoned debate more than ever before.