An Update on the Alabama Weather Situation

Radar Update: Rain and storms remain widespread across Alabama at mid-morning. Some of the heavier storms are producing heavy rain and loud thunder that will rattle you’re windows, but there is no severe weather in Alabama right now and all of this will exit the state soon.

Here is what to expect this afternoon/tonight…

A Tornado Watch has just been issued for North/Central Mississippi until 8:00 tonight. A Tornado Watch will be issued for Alabama later this afternoon before the event unfolds…

*Placement: Here is the new SPC convective outlook valid through tonight…

Areas along and North and West of I-65 remain in an “enhanced risk” for stronger tornadoes, (EF-3 or greater) while the rest of the state is in the standard “slight risk”. I do note there is now a “moderate risk” that includes far extreme Northwest Alabama for places like Florence and Muscle Shoals. I’m starting to get a lot of questions about what is it going to do in my community and what is the tornado percentage. Understand ALL 67 counties in Alabama is in a severe weather risk today and a tornado is possible anywhere and not just in the enhanced risk zone. I know it’s confusing looking at these graphics, but these are just guidelines and severe storms are likely wherever you are today.

*Threats: ALL modes of severe weather are possible this afternoon and tonight including tornadoes, Damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flooding. Keep in mind this will not be you’re typical squall line where everything comes together and is gone in 30 mintes. These will be isolated individual supercell thunderstorms that will have the potential to go tornadic. Below is a look at the new projected STP(Significant Tornado Parameter) index values valid at 6:00 this evening…

*Timing: Unfortunately, this is going to be a long duration type of event where there will be a 24 hour window. The event begins around 3:00 this afternoon and lasts until about 3:00 tomorrow afternoon. As you can see in the graphic below, this is why SPC keeps the entire state of Alabama in a “marginal risk” severe weather risk tomorrow.

*Bottom Line: Understand that this is a dangerous situation with the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak this afternoon and tonight. Remember, we live in Alabama and it is typical to have this type of severe weather event in late December. The key is to not panic and simply take action when watches/warnings are issued this afternoon and tonight. I promise you we will all make it through today.

I will be covering the weather all day today and tonight and it will be hard for me to reply to everyone’s questions, but I will do my best to get back to everyone. You can see streaming updates on my Facebook and my blog!

Stay Alert!

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