Severe Weather Likely Tuesday
First off, I want to stress that we live in Alabama and having severe weather events is very typical in our state no matter what season we are in. This should not catch you off guard or surprise you in any way.
Here’s my analysis…
*Placement: SPC has now upgraded most of North Alabama to an “enhanced” risk with a 30% chance of a severe storm within a given radius Tuesday afternoon/night. Rest of the state remains in the standard “slight” risk.
The enhanced zone is the area of most concern for the possibility of a few large, long track tornadoes,(EF-3 or greater). We will have to monitor this area very carefully once things get active.
*Temperatures are expected to rise to near 70 degrees with dewpoints also surging into the upper 60s. This will make the air very unstable and favorable for severe weather.
There will be plenty of moisture in place as instability values should easily exceed 1,000 joules across Alabama Tuesday afternoon. Lapse rates should also be more significant than in past severe weather events since there will be a deeper layer of cold air aloft with this system.
*Timing: For now, it looks like the core severe weather threat will come from about 3:00 Tuesday afternoon through 12:00 midnight Wednesday. Keep in mind these time frames will likely be adjusted over time.
*Threats: ALL modes of severe weather such as damaging straight line winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible throughout the duration of this event.
*Impacts: Understand, this is a “classic” severe weather setup and has the potential to be a significant, high impact event. I don’t say that to scare anybody, but I say that to let you know of the possibility so that you and your family can prepare ahead of time.
*Bottom Line: My confidence continues to grow with the forecast based on good model consistency. However, we are still 5 days out until this event unfolds and there will more than likely need to be changes made to the forecast. It is crucial that everyone pays close attention to updates and stays on high alert and don’t let your guard down. Make sure you have a good reliable source for weather information and have a severe weather safety plan in place. I will continue to have more updates to come so be sure to check my Facebook page often.