Severe Weather Tuesday

After reviewing the latest model data, here is my latest thinking on Tuesday’s severe weather threat…

*Temperatures are expected to be close to 70 degrees for most locations Tuesday. Dewpoints will also surge into the mid to upper 60s which will make the air very unstable and sticky.

*Wind gusts are expected to be in the 25–30 range due to a tight pressure gradient that will not be related to any storms.

*Placement: SPC maintains an “enhanced” severe weather risk with 30% probabilities for Northwest Alabama Tuesday afternoon/night.

This means severe storms will be possible within 25 miles of a given point. We will have to monitor this area carefully for any supercell thunderstorms that form out ahead of the main squall line Tuesday afternoon.

*On a positive note, forecast models are now shifting the surface low further north placing it near Chicago Tuesday evening.

This would suggest a less tornado threat in Alabama since the better dynamics of the system would be well to the north of here. However, we still have a severe weather threat and it could be a significant one.

*Timing: Based on the latest data, the timing of the storms has been adjusted a little. Looks like the best chance for severe storms now will come from about 4:00 Tuesday afternoon until 4:00 Wednesday morning.

*Modes: ALL modes of severe weather will be possible throughout the duration of this event including damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

Here is a look at the STP(Significant Tornado Parameters) valid at 6:00 Tuesday evening…

Highest tornado threat will come over Northwest Alabama where tornado parameters should exceed 1 unit. A long track tornado or two can’t be ruled out in this area.

*Bottom Line: Confidence remains high in the forecast, but there is still some uncertainity. Understand, we are still 3 days out from this event so things can change before then. Just know that there is a strong possibility for severe weather in Alabama Tuesday afternoon/night so you will need to pay close attention to updates and stay weather alert!

More to come later…