Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Ahead for Alabama This Afternoon/Tonight

I have gathered and closely reviewed the new model data this morning and there is no need to make any changes to the ongoing forecast. A severe weather outbreak will unfold across all of Alabama this afternoon and tonight and it is very important that everyone takes this seriously. Everything you need to know is listed in the information below.

Let’s break this down…

*Risks: SPC(Storm Prediction Center) has made no changes to their convective outlook. An “enhanced risk” remains in place to the Northwest while a standard “slight risk” is in place for Central/South Alabama… I want to point out that these outlooks are just guidelines based on general thinking and nobody can define the exact placement of severe storms. The key is for everyone in the state of Alabama to simply be prepared and on high alert for severe storms wherever you are today.

*Impacts: ALL modes of severe weather are possible this afternoon and tonight acorss the entire state. This includes tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flooding. A few long track, violent tornadoes (EF-3 or greater) will be possible in the enhanced risk areas of Northwest Alabama. Below is a look at the new projected STP(Significant Tornado Parameter) index values coming off the HRRR…

*Timimg: Best chance for severe storms will come in a 24 hour window from 3:00 this afternoon until 3:00 tomorrow. Understand this is going to be a slow, long duration severe weather event for our state.

I also note that SPC has all of the state in a “marginal” severe weather risk tomorrow…

*Bottom Line: Everything is in place for a significant severe weather outbreak today for our state and I don’t mean that to scare anybody, but so that you understand this is a dangerous and serious situation with the potential for a few strong tornadoes. No, this will not be anything like April 27th, 2011, but this will be our first major severe weather event since that day since things have been relatively quiet and calm around here. I can’t stress enough that everyone must be prepared and pay attention to updates and be on high alert. Please take this seriously and take action when watches/warnings are issued. Also, make sure you and you’re family have a good safety plan.

I will be covering the weather all day and streaming updates through Facebook and here on my blog. Stay alert and I promsie we will make it through today together!

Stay tuned…