… perhaps “it depends” is a deeply unsatisfying answer to the questions I set forth herein. However, in arriving at these conclusions, we’ve established not only the resilience of Google’s core product, but also a base-case expectation for the future of billions in cash flow between Google and Apple — and, perhaps most importantly, a new strategic framework in “The Monty Hall Path”. 🏁
Perhaps the better way to frame that concept is ‘growth accelerates exponentially on the way up, and losses accelerate exponentially on the way down’. Both start as a trickle, then gains or losses snowball as momentum builds among users who are entering or exiting the network.
…ve marketshare in search volume, and walletshare in ad spend will always follow consumer attention. Advertisers got to advertise, as we’ve seen not only throughout history — with advertising as a percent of GDP having remained within 1.0–1.5% over the last century — but also recently — with the deceleration in ad load across Google and Facebook properties having been offset by higher CPMs/CPCs/CPLs.
In sum, during the rise of mobile, power initially accrued to the default services that new users discovered when they first arrived in the new surface area; but, now that mobile has matured, power accrues to the biggest aggregators in their respective verticals, including Google for search. Instead of framing this as The Monty Hall Dilemma — a binary choice between Door 1 and Door 2 — it’s more like The Monty Hall Path — a linear path to the Promised Land that first led Google through Door 1(The Power of Defaults), then eventually wound its way through Door 2 (Aggregation Theory).
Well, that all said, the most interesting consideration is how Google’s TAC decision pits two pillars of tech’s academic business strategy against one another: Aggregation Theory vs The Power of Defaults. Whenever their two paths shall meet in the wild — a fork-in-the-road so to speak — the dualism betw…
After all, the greatest risk to supermassive demand aggregators like Google is not displeasing advertisers, but rather displeasing users. Advertisers somewhat have to stay on the platform as long as Google has consumer attention, so an aggregator like Google should never do anything to provoke end-user demand to leave en masse.
Network effects are commonly mistaken for economies of scale, which result from business size rather than interoperability… Interoperability has the effect of making the network bigger and thus increases the external value of the network to consumers... primarily by increasing potential connections and secondarily by attracting new participants to the network.
less support and a lot less precedent. Consider the government’s tactics with historical analogs like the tel…ticians, and now the industry itself”, then it’s hard to imagine that the quorum won’t make it fit. If the hand doesn’t fit the glove, then politics has a way of making a glove that fits the hand. A lot more has been pushed-thorough with a lot less support and a lot less precedent. Consider the government’s tactics with historical analogs like the telephone industry, Hollywood en…