Missing: There Were 1.4M Caucus Votes

A closer look at the data to estimate the missing Caucus vote tallies. Starting with the Green Papers, and digging deeper, I can tell you that there were about 1.4 million Caucus votes missing from popular vote totals.

Caucuses do not translate well to being included in the popular vote. The data either does not directly exist, or takes a while to surface. While what follows is an estimate, it brings us closer to an idea of what the official popular vote tally should be. All data and methods are documented below.

Conclusions

These are the uninterpreted totals that include the new Caucus figures.

• Democrats had 1,195,399 additional votes.
• Republicans had 208,013 additional votes.
• That’s a combined total of 1,403,412 additional votes.

Democrats

• Hillary Clinton had 17,312,072 votes (54.4%)
• Bernie Sanders had 14,002,141 votes (44%)
• Other candidates had 507,038 votes (1.59%)

Republicans

• Donald Trump had 14,092,512 votes (44.89%)
• Other candidates had 17,280,133 votes (55.05%)

Summary Chart

All data and methods are documented below.

The Green Papers 2016 Primaries

Official numbers published in The Green Papers for the 2016 Presidential Primaries are as follow.

Democrats

Democrats had a total of 30,625,866 votes tallied in the popular vote.

• 16,914,722 votes for Hillary Clinton (55.23%)
• 13,206,428 votes for Bernie Sanders (43.12%)
• 504,716 votes for other candidates (1.65%)

Popular vote total includes AK, AL, AR, AS, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DA, DC, DE, FL, GA, GU, HI, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MN, MO, MP, MS, MT, NC, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, PR, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VI, VT, WI, WV.

Popular vote total excludes IA, ME, ND, NV, WA, WY. No popular vote for UN.

Iowa Caucus

IA Democrats had a total of 139,980 votes tallied in the Precinct
Votes.

• 69,733 votes for Hillary Clinton (49.82%)
• 69,452 votes for Bernie Sanders (49.62%)
• 795 votes for other candidates (0.57%)

Maine Caucus

ME Democrats had a total of 3,222 votes tallied in the popular vote.

• 1,099 votes for Hillary Clinton (34.1%)
• 2,123 votes for Bernie Sanders (65.89%)

North Dakota Caucus

ND Democrats had a total of 12.000 Allocations (No direct popular vote tally available.)

• 3.424 Alloc for Hillary Clinton (28.53%)
• 8.576 Alloc for Bernie Sanders (71.47%)

According to the US Census Bureau, the state’s population was 756,927 as of July 2015. North Dakota does not require voter registration, but the ND Secretary of State estimates there are 570,955 eligible voters and that turnout for the state Primary (state, not Presidential) was at 24.51%.

According to the ND SoS, a total of 139,957 ballots were cast for the state Primary. Using the abstract Caucus Allocation numbers for the ND Presidential Primary and the ballot count for the state Primary, we can estimate the popular vote totals for the state.

Since ballot counts are not broken down for just Democrats, we must also include the Republican tally to distribute the share of votes correctly among the two parties. The Green Papers do not have precinct data for the Republican Primary, only delegate counts, so that is what we will compare. Delegate distribution within the parties may differ so an apples to apples comparison is not an ideal method, but for our purposes it will have to suffice. The Democrats had 23 delegates (45.1%) to 28 for the Republicans (54.9%) for a total of 51 delegates.

• Democrats: 23 delegates (45.1%) of 139,957 ballots = 63,121 ballots
• Republicans 28 delegates (54.9%) of 139,957 ballots = 76,836 ballots

Therefore the estimated share for the Democrats is 63,121 votes from which we can then estimate vote shares for Clinton and Sanders.

• 18,008 votes for Hillary Clinton (28.53%)
• 45,113 votes for Bernie Sanders (71.47%)

Nevada Caucus

NV Democrats had a total of 11,990 county delegates. (No direct popular vote tally available.)

• 6,313 county delegates for Hillary Clinton (52.65%)
• 5,672 county delegates for Bernie Sanders (47.3%)
• 5 county delegates for other candidates (0.04%)

According to the US Census Bureau, the state’s population was 2,890,845 as of July 2015. The NV Primary was February 20th, 2016. According to the NV Secretary of State [pdf], there were 1,487,935 registered voters in February 2016 of whom, 1,229,617 were active [pdf]. Turnout for the state Primary (state, not Presidential) was at 18.51%.

According to the NV SoS, a total of 240,181 ballots were cast for the state Primary in August 2016 with 1,295,825 active registered voters. Using the abstract Caucus Allocation numbers for the ND Presidential Primary and the ballot count percentage for the state Primary, we can estimate the popular vote totals for the state.

• 18.51% of 1,229,617 active voters = 227,602 votes

Since ballot counts are not broken down for just Democrats, we must also include the Republican tally to distribute the share of votes correctly among the two parties. The Green Papers do not have popular vote data for the Democratic Primary, only delegate counts, so that is what we will compare. Delegate distribution within the parties may differ so an apples to apples comparison is not an ideal method, but for our purposes it will have to suffice. The Democrats had 43 delegates (58.9%) to 30 for the Republicans (41.1%) for a total of 73 delegates.

• Democrats: 43 delegates (58.9%) of 227,602 votes = 134,058 votes
• Republicans 30 delegates (41.1%) of 227,602 votes = 93,544 votes (Note: We know from the Green Papers that the official count of Republican votes was 75,482 which for our purposes means the estimate is close when we consider that this is on a national scale measuring millions where hundreds of thousands are lost in some states, 18,062 is an acceptable discrepancy for an estimate.)

Therefore the estimated share for the Democrats is 134,058 votes from which we can then estimate vote shares for Clinton, Sanders, and the other candidates.

• 70,582 votes for Hillary Clinton (52.65%)
• 63,409 votes for Bernie Sanders (47.3%)
• 53 votes for other candidates (0.04%)

Washington Caucus

WA Democrats had a total of 1,421,841 votes tallied in the popular vote. Curiously while the Green Papers have the popular vote count for Republicans, they did not use the same source for the Democrats. Republicans had 602,998 total votes which leaves 818,843 votes to the Democrats.

To get popular vote tally estimates for Democrats, we can look at the Precinct Caucuses where there were 26,347 legislative district delegates.

• 7,141 legislative district delegates for Hillary Clinton (27.1%)
• 19,159 legislative district delegates for Bernie Sanders (72.72%)
• 47 legislative district delegates for other candidates (0.18%)

The percentages can then be applied to the Democrat’s 818,843 votes.

• 221,906 votes for Hillary Clinton (27.1%)
• 595,463 votes for Bernie Sanders (72.72%)
• 1,474 votes for other candidates (0.18%)

Wyoming Caucus

WY Democrats had a total of 280 state delegates. (No direct popular vote tally available.)

• 124 state delegates for Hillary Clinton (44.29%)
• 156 state delegates for Bernie Sanders (55.71%)

According to the US Census Bureau, the state’s population was 586,107 as of July 2015. The WY Primary was April 9th, 2016. According to the WY Secretary of State [pdf], there were 205,331 registered voters by May 2016. Turnout for the 2014 state Primary (state, not Presidential) was at 46%.

Using the abstract Caucus delegate percentages for the WY Presidential Primary and the voter turnout percentage for the state Primary, we can estimate the popular vote totals for the state.

• 46% of 205,331 registered voters = 94,452 votes

Since ballot counts are not broken down for just Democrats, we must also include the Republican tally to distribute the share of votes correctly among the two parties. The Green Papers do not have popular vote data for the Democratic Primary, only delegate counts, so that is what we will compare. Delegate distribution within the parties may differ so an apples to apples comparison is not an ideal method, but for our purposes it will have to suffice. The Democrats had 18 delegates (38.3%) to 29 for the Republicans (61.7%) for a total of 47 delegates.

• Democrats: 18 delegates (38.3%) of 94,452 votes = 36,175 votes
• Republicans 29 delegates (61.7%) of 94,452 votes = 58,277 votes

Therefore the estimated share for the Democrats is 36,175 votes from which we can then estimate vote shares for Clinton and Sanders.

• 16,022 votes for Hillary Clinton (44.29%)
• 20,153 votes for Bernie Sanders (55.71%)

Republicans

Republicans had a total of 31,183,841 votes tallied in the popular vote.

• 14,015,993 votes for Donald Trump (44.95%)
• 17,167,848 votes for other candidates (55.05%)

Popular vote total includes AK, AL, AR, AZ, CA, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MP, MS, MT, NC, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, PR, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VI, VT, WA, WI, WV.

No popular vote for AS, CO, GU, ND, WY.

American Samoa Caucus

AS Republicans had a total of 9 delegates. (No popular vote or precinct data available.)

• 9 delegates for Donald Trump (100%)

According to the United Nations, the American Samoa population was projected to be 56,000 in 2016. Data available from the American Samoa Election Office is very limited. The only data reflecting voter turnout [pdf] was for the 2014 US Congress General Election in which there were 10,246 votes cast.

Since ballot counts are not broken down for just Republicans, we must also include the Democratic tally to distribute the share of votes correctly among the two parties. The Green Papers do not have precinct data for the Republican Primary, only delegate counts, so that is what we will compare. Delegate distribution within the parties may differ so an apples to apples comparison is not an ideal method, but for our purposes it will have to suffice. The Democrats had 11 delegates (55%) to 9 for the Republicans (45%) for a total of 20 delegates.

• Democrats: 23 delegates (55%) of 10,246 votes = 5,635 votes
• Republicans 28 delegates (45%) of 10,246 votes = 4,611 votes

Therefore the estimated share for the Republicans is 4,611 votes from which we can then estimate vote shares for Trump.

• 4,611 votes for Donald Trump (100%)

Colorado Caucus

CO Republicans had a total of 37 delegates. (No popular vote data available.)

• 4 delegates for Donald Trump (10.81%)
• 33 delegates for other candidates (89.19%)

According to the US Census Bureau, the state’s population was 5,456,574 as of July 2015. The CO Secretary of State [pdf] estimates there are 2,973,757 active eligible voters. No data is presently available for the 2016 Republican Primary, but in 2008 there were 65,400 votes cast and in 2012 there were 66,027 votes cast. Applying the same increase of voter turnout for Democrats between 2008 and 2016 of 2.92% to the Republican turnout, the estimated 2016 Republican Primary turnout would be 67,310 votes.

• 7,276 votes for Donald Trump (10.81%)
• 60,034 votes for other candidates (89.19%)

Special thanks to Associate Professor Michael McDonald whose data made the Colorado estimate possible.

Guam Caucus

GU Republicans had a total of 9 delegates. (No popular vote available.)

• 9 delegates for Donald Trump (100%)

According to the United Nations, the Guam’s population is projected to be 172,000 in 2016. The Guam Election Commission estimates there are 49,363 eligible voters and that turnout for the local Primary (territory, not Presidential) was 13,832 votes for the Democrats, and 8,756 votes for the Republicans. However, the popular vote count for the Democratic Presidential Primary was only 1,305 which is only 9.43% compared to the Democratic turnout for the local Primary. Turnout for the local Primary cannot be used for an estimate because it’s ratio differs too much from the delegate count ratio in the Presidential Primary.

Since ballot counts are not available for just Republicans, we must also include the Democratic tally to distribute the share of votes correctly among the two parties. The Green Papers do not have precinct data for the Republican Primary, only delegate counts, so that is what we will compare. Delegate distribution within the parties may differ so an apples to apples comparison is not an ideal method, but for our purposes it will have to suffice. The Democrats had 12 delegates (57.14%) to 9 for the Republicans (42.86%) for a total of 21 delegates. We know from the Democratic Presidential Primary that there were 1,305 votes.

• 1,305 (57.14%) Democrats + 979 (42.86%) Republicans = 2284 votes

Therefore if we apply the same percentages to votes as to the delegate count, we can estimate that there were 979 votes cast for Republicans.

• 979 votes for Donald Trump (100%)

North Dakota Caucus

ND Republicans had a total of 28 delegates. (No popular vote or precinct data available.)

• 21 delegates for Donald Trump (75%)
• 7 delegates for other candidates (25%)

According to the US Census Bureau, the state’s population was 756,927 as of July 2015. North Dakota does not require voter registration, but the ND Secretary of State estimates there are 570,955 eligible voters and that turnout for the state Primary (state, not Presidential) was at 24.51%.

According to the ND SoS, a total of 139,957 ballots were cast for the state Primary. Using the abstract Caucus Allocation numbers for the ND Presidential Primary and the ballot count for the state Primary, we can estimate the popular vote totals for the state.

Since ballot counts are not broken down for just Republicans, we must also include the Democratic tally to distribute the share of votes correctly among the two parties. The Green Papers do not have precinct data for the Republican Primary, only delegate counts, so that is what we will compare. Delegate distribution within the parties may differ so an apples to apples comparison is not an ideal method, but for our purposes it will have to suffice. The Democrats had 23 delegates (45.1%) to 28 for the Republicans (54.9%) for a total of 51 delegates.

• Democrats: 23 delegates (45.1%) of 139,957 ballots = 63,121 ballots
• Republicans 28 delegates (54.9%) of 139,957 ballots = 76,836 ballots

Therefore the estimated share for the Republicans is 76,836 votes from which we can then estimate vote shares for Trump and the other candidates.

• 57,627 votes for Donald Trump (75%)
• 19,209 votes for other candidates (25%)

Wyoming Caucus

WY Republicans had a total of 29 state delegates. (No direct popular vote tally available.)

• 3 state delegates for Donald Trump (10.34%)
• 26 state delegates for other candidates (89.66%)

According to the US Census Bureau, the state’s population was 586,107 as of July 2015. The WY Primary was March 12th, 2016. According to the WY Secretary of State [pdf], there were 204,323 registered voters by May 2016. Turnout for the 2014 state Primary (state, not Presidential) was at 46%.

Using the abstract Caucus delegate percentages for the WY Presidential Primary and the voter turnout percentage for the state Primary, we can estimate the popular vote totals for the state.

• 46% of 204,323 registered voters = 93,989 votes

Since ballot counts are not broken down for just Republicans, we must also include the Democratic tally to distribute the share of votes correctly among the two parties. The Green Papers do not have popular vote data for the Republican Primary, only delegate counts, so that is what we will compare. Delegate distribution within the parties may differ so an apples to apples comparison is not an ideal method, but for our purposes it will have to suffice. The Democrats had 18 delegates (38.3%) to 29 for the Republicans (61.7%) for a total of 47 delegates.

• Democrats: 18 delegates (38.3%) of 94,452 votes = 36,175 votes
• Republicans 29 delegates (61.7%) of 94,452 votes = 58,277 votes

Therefore the estimated share for the Republicans is 58,277 votes from which we can then estimate vote shares for Trump and other candidates.

• 6,026 votes for Donald Trump (10.34%)
• 52,251 votes for other candidates (89.66%)

— Antyal

You can find Antyal Tennyson on Twitter under the handle @AntyalT.